McCain Shredding Obama's Lead

[bijou]

Iraq isn't the only place where the surge seems to be working. John McCain's gains over the last five days are remaking the political landscape as Election Day approaches.

The double-digit leads Barack Obama held last week have evaporated, as all three of the top tracking polls (the most current and reliable measurements out there) show McCain hot on Obama's heels.

Zogby had Obama ahead by 12 points last week — now it's down to 4. His margin in the Rasmussen poll has dropped from 8 points to 3 in the last few days. Gallup shows only a 2-point difference.

In each news cycle, Obama is on the defensive — staving off accusations of closet socialism and trying to wriggle out of his once overt advocacy of income redistribution. "Spreading the wealth around" has become the anti-Obama slogan and might become the epitaph for his candidacy, just as "brainwashed" was for George Romney and "Where's the beef?" was for Gary Hart.

Then, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's image is returning to haunt Obama. Yes, McCain refused to use the issue in his own campaign, but independent groups like goptrust.com are using funds from tens of thousands of individual donors to run ads featuring Wright and his relationship with Obama.  ...

link

[NHSparky]

This, ladies and gentlemen, is what's referred to as, "CYA Time".

[djones520]

I hope the trend keeps going.  While I was really worried that Kerry might pull it off, I've almost found myself resigned to the fact of an Obama win.  I'm starting to get a little more excited though that McCain might pull this off.

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

The economy has bought Obama 15 points and the MSM has probably given him another 10 to 12.

By all that is Holy, Obama should only be showing 25 points total.

[CharlesD]

Is there much early voting exit polling data yet?  Just curious.

[bijou]

Is there much early voting exit polling data yet?  Just curious.

The room was packed this morning. The television cameras were rolling. The first exit poll of the 2008 U.S. presidential election, we were told, was about to be released. And the findings:

McCain 76 percent; Obama 24 percent. An exit poll, that is, of American Jews living in Israel and casting absentee ballots.

“I’m shocked that it’s three to one,” said Mitchell Barak, an Israeli-American pollster who formerly worked for conservative Israeli governments.

The survey found that large numbers of registered Democrats and independents voted for McCain. Over half the surveyed voters said they had an “extremely unfavorable” impression of Obama.

...

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/washington/olivesandthorns/entries/2008/10/30/exit_poll_mccain_in_a_landslid.html

I did read a reference on another thread that the exit polling in Florida is showing good results for McCain but I can't remember which thread it was off the top of my head.

[jinxmchue]

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/washington/olivesandthorns/entries/2008/10/30/exit_poll_mccain_in_a_landslid.html

I did read a reference on another thread that the exit polling in Florida is showing good results for McCain but I can't remember which thread it was off the top of my head.

I'm wary of these reports.  Giving exit poll results for absentee voters gives, in my mind, a target to the Democrats.  They LOVE to throw out absentee ballots.  They already know to target the military absentee ballots.

[debk]

Yesterday was the last day of early voting here (I thought it was today was planning on going today...). The news at 11 last night reported that 150k had voted, leaving only about 100k to still vote. They did not give any indication of who was voting for whom....but this is traditionally a Republican area.

What concerns me...is that should something finally come out condemning Obama to those who have already voted for him....there is obviously no way to change a vote.

Will we end up with a president that the majority do not want?

Hopefully .....McCain will win by a significant amount and it will be a moot point.

[CharlesD]

What concerns me...is that should something finally come out condemning Obama to those who have already voted for him....there is obviously no way to change a vote.

Will we end up with a president that the majority do not want?

Hopefully .....McCain will win by a significant amount and it will be a moot point.

That's the reason I've never really cared for early voting.  Too many things can change at the last minute. 

[djones520]

Polls i've seen from the Military show a 70:30 (give or take a few) split in McCains favor in ALL branches, both Enlisted and Officer.

[bijou]

Team McCain conference call: polling

With a mere four days left, the polls have begun to tighten in the presidential race.  Pennsylvania appears within the margin of error, and a last-minute surprise could turn the race in McCain’s favor — or so they would like to think.  Team McCain held a press conference today with campaign leaders Rick Davis, pollster Bill McInturff, Mike DuHaime and Christian Ferry to discuss the latest in national and state polling.
Davis says we’re witnessing one of the greatest comebacks in political history, or at least since McCain won the primaries.   Crowds are huge, and energy is high.  Sarah Palin is electrifying crowds and bringing people back into the game.  They feel they have the momentum, increasing polling in every battleground state over the past week, and have gotten past the effect of the financial collapse.
Team McCain says they have Iowa as a dead heat, and Obama seems to confirm that.  He’s going back to Iowa over the weekend.  If Iowa was not in play, Obama wouldn’t bother.  Team McCain seems to believe that more than a few Obama states may be heading back into play.
...

[debk]

I really think McCain finally hammering away with Obama's "share the wealth" is making a difference to many people.

There are a lot of people out there who work long hours that a combined spousal income hits 100K-150K. That is not "rich".....why should they have to give up more of their hard earned income to people who sit at home and collect welfare as it is?

[bijou]

Is there much early voting exit polling data yet?  Just curious.

This was the story I was thinking of: http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20081029/BREAKINGNEWS/81029048/1006/news01

...But party breakdowns for turnout aren't the same as final tallies, and at least one poll offered a different view for the campaign of Republican John McCain.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats' 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.
...

the report is equivocal, but not discouraging for Republicans.

[Jim]

Barry is campaigning in states that are true blue.  Tell you anything ?

A couple point lead on polls that are overweighted 10-15 % on who they talk to ?

And what you don't hear is the percentage of people who respond with "I'm not telling you" which they are calling undecided or BHO as needed to meet the numbers.

Just vote on Tuesday and you should get a very nice surprize on Wednesday.

[SaintLouieWoman]

Barry is campaigning in states that are true blue.  Tell you anything ?

A couple point lead on polls that are overweighted 10-15 % on who they talk to ?

And what you don't hear is the percentage of people who respond with "I'm not telling you" which they are calling undecided or BHO as needed to meet the numbers.

Just vote on Tuesday and you should get a very nice surprize on Wednesday.

You're giving me hope, Jim. Maybe Obama will get that November surprise. 

[DumbAss Tanker]

...But party breakdowns for turnout aren't the same as final tallies, and at least one poll offered a different view for the campaign of Republican John McCain.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats' 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.
...

I'd love to see the DUmmies stumble on to this item and watch the ensuing freakout (Here, Moleymoleymoley...), but I expect the true-Blue DUmmies would just whistle past the graveyard and do their best to ignore it even if they did find it.

[bijou]

More head exploding stuff here. http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2008/10/27/daily80.html

A Halloween Day poll shows John McCain trailing Barack Obama by one point in the “toss-up” states that could decide Tuesday’s presidential election.

The George Washington University Battleground Poll gives Obama and running mate Joe Biden 47 percent, with 46 percent for McCain and running mate Sarah Palin in those states and 4 percent undecided.

The campaigns are focusing advertising and visits in those battleground states. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will appear with McCain on Friday in Columbus, Ohio. McCain and Palin also have stops planned over the next few days in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Iowa.

The Democratic ticket has rallies planed for Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Indiana and Iowa, including Friday rallies in Ohio with Obama and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton.

The Obama-Biden lead overall in the GWU poll was 48 percent to 45 percent. The survey was released Oct. 31 and questioned 1,000 voters.


...

[franksolich]

That's the reason I've never really cared for early voting.  Too many things can change at the last minute.

Exactamente, sir.

I'm an adamant foe of early voting.

Too many things can change at the last minute.

[DumbAss Tanker]

Exactamente, sir.

I'm an adamant foe of early voting.

Too many things can change at the last minute.

I'm with you guys on that one.

[miskie]

I'm with you guys on that one.

absolutely - too many moving parts in an election to consider, especially in this election. Instead of early voting, I do support the creation of a national holiday for Election Day. It would give opportunity to everyone to vote all day long, instead of the usual poll congestion that occurs before and after normal working hours. It would also allow the campaign to come to an end before the electorate decides, especially if a last minute bombshell changes the decision a voter would have made -- such as the proverbial 'dead girl or live boy'

[Texacon]

I'd love to see the DUmmies stumble on to this item and watch the ensuing freakout (Here, Moleymoleymoley...), but I expect the true-Blue DUmmies would just whistle past the graveyard and do their best to ignore it even if they did find it.

They don't want to read anything like that.  It would ruin their chances to scream "THEY STOLE IT AGAIN!!!!" with impunity.

KC