Gallup Daily: Presidential Race Narrows Slightly (Obama ahead by 2 points)

[bijou]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The gap between Barack Obama and John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Saturday through Monday has narrowed slightly, and Obama is now at 49% of the vote to 47% for McCain among likely voters using Gallup's traditional model, and at 51% to 44% using Gallup's expanded model.

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Just thought I'd post this in case anyone was feeling despondent! Still all to play for.

[Chris_]

And if you check the internals, you will likely find that they are still polling 45% democrats, and 35% republicans.......draw your own conclusions.....

As the election draws nearer, and the pollsters credibility becomes more important than getting the messiah elected, you can expect the reality to begin to come out......

There is a reason that the messiah is still campaigning hard in PA.....even with all of the polls showing him way ahead.....his internal polling is telling him that it is very close.......


doc

[Crazy Horse]

I do uncertainities all the time at work for measurments.

49% of the vote to 47% for McCain among likely voters using Gallup's traditional model, and at 51% to 44% using Gallup's expanded model.

That expanded part is worst case for us and seems to be the lefts best case. I wonder what their k is equal to............2,3,4,5,6,7...

[Chris_]

Anything less than 15 points is a McCain victory.

[franksolich]

Anything less than 15 points is a McCain victory.

By my own calculations, if the Big Zero is only 8 points or less on Sunday-Monday, it's over; Hail to John McCain the Chief.

I'm not quite sure how I arrived at "8 points," but I did take two things (among many other things) into consideration, the skewing of the polls and the Bradley effect, and came up with it.

We'll see one week from today.

[miskie]

By my own calculations, if the Big Zero is only 8 points or less on Sunday-Monday, it's over; Hail to John McCain the Chief.

I'm not quite sure how I arrived at "8 points," but I did take two things (among many other things) into consideration, the skewing of the polls and the Bradley effect, and came up with it.

We'll see one week from today.

Obama's been averaging about 7 or so for the last week, but that's only because of what I now refer to as the Weekly Outlier Injection that has kept his average this high.

last week it was the CBS/NYTimes poll with Obama at +13
then Newsweek at +12
and just today is Pew Research at +15
then

[Airwolf]

Theres plenty of reason to think McCain may win.


The Youth vote - They probably won;t show up again just like previous years

The Pumas - They are not voting for the Messiah

The polls - They are oversampling the Democrats like they do every year an election is near. IF this holds true Keef O will be weeping before 8pm on Nov 4th.

The American people - If what has been said is true about them. America isn't going to vote in a Socialist no matter how mush hope and change he talks about. We are and have always been a center right country.

[Wretched Excess]

Theres plenty of reason to think McCain may win.


The Youth vote - They probably won;t show up again just like previous years

The Pumas - They are not voting for the Messiah

The polls - They are oversampling the Democrats like they do every year an election is near. IF this holds true Keef O will be weeping before 8pm on Nov 4th.

The American people - If what has been said is true about them. America isn't going to vote in a Socialist no matter how mush hope and change he talks about. We are and have always been a center right country.

and first time voters are breaking more or less even. 

just trying to point to an early election night indicator, but i think we'll know generally what's happening from which way virginia goes, and by how much.  I would say ohio, but cuyahoga county will probably still be out when the polls close on pluto.