Author Topic: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)  (Read 3099 times)

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Offline Wretched Excess

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either the economic argument is working, or mccain is merely rising and falling with the stock market.  I haven't
looked closely at the internals yet, but it's a hell of a lot better than the 8 point lead Obama had three weeks ago.

Quote
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.

"I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in government than Obama. I don't think Obama has been around long enough," said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.

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Offline Splashdown

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2008, 12:41:24 PM »
What the hell?


Pollsters this year are like Philly weathermen....

"Tomorrow's snowfall will be somewhere between two flakes and four feet."


At the rate the pollsters are going, I predict that this election will definitely be somewhere between a Reaganesque landslide for McCain and a Reaganesque landslide for Obama.
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God alone suffices.
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Offline Scoobie

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2008, 12:51:03 PM »


Ok, I'm going to sound really retarded here, but what the hell difference does it make with all these public opinion polls?

Obama has a huge lead in the electoral college (last I looked). Even if McCain can pull out the popular vote, the electoral college will put BHO in the WH.


Or am I missing something here.
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Offline franksolich

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2008, 01:13:12 PM »

Ok, I'm going to sound really retarded here, but what the hell difference does it make with all these public opinion polls?

Obama has a huge lead in the electoral college (last I looked). Even if McCain can pull out the popular vote, the electoral college will put BHO in the WH.


Or am I missing something here.


As things currently are today, October 22, 2008, I got the Big Zero winning six states, of which only Vermont is a dead certainty.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline Wretched Excess

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2008, 01:14:15 PM »

look, I'm not going to rehash the relative significance, or lack thereof, of opinion polls in general, or national opinion polls in a presidential race.  we have been through it, and through it, and through it again.  they are part of the discourse during an election, and they are going to be posted here.  if you don't like them, don't read them. 


Offline Scoobie

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2008, 01:21:43 PM »
look, I'm not going to rehash the relative significance, or lack thereof, of opinion polls in general, or national opinion polls in a presidential race.  we have been through it, and through it, and through it again.  they are part of the discourse during an election, and they are going to be posted here.  if you don't like them, don't read them. 



WE, I wasn't trying to challenge the post itself, rather I was hoping someone would help me understand better the dynamics and numbers that play into the opinion polls versus the electoral college.

"if you don't like them, don't read them"....WTF?









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Offline Wretched Excess

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2008, 01:24:25 PM »
WE, I wasn't trying to challenge the post itself, rather I was hoping someone would help me understand better the dynamics and numbers that play into the opinion polls versus the electoral college.


sorry.  that came out utterly unlike anything that I intended.  entirely too much coffee today :coffee:   :hyper:

Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2008, 01:59:27 PM »
Scoobie, the relationship is that all those electoral maps are derived from the polling data.  Each of them is based on some sort of synthesis of multiple individual state poll results (the mix varies according to where you get the electoral map).  The electoral maps take in some no-brainers, nobody expects Obama to lose CA or IL for instance, nor McCain to lose AZ.

The maps do tend to make things look much more set than they really are.  They are after all entirely dependent on blended polling results, and therefore carry forward any systemic bias in the polls they use.  The mapmakers blend the poll results to try to cancel out bias and errors, but if there is a fundamental common defect in the polling strategy/methodology of multiple polling sources, that will be carried forward into the map-making, possibly even magnified in it.  They also lag the day-to-day state of public opinion by probably at least 72 hours.

So bottom line, the poll results are derivatives of real opinion taken through the filter of the polling methodology, and the maps are further derivatives of the polling results.  Recent election results (past 10-15 years) have shown the polls to be far from perfect, and not particularly precise predictors of the final result until the last 72-48 hours before the vote.  Of course those more-precise final results come out too late to get cranked into the maps, and may not even make it into the public eye before the real vote.
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Offline Scoobie

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2008, 02:12:47 PM »
Scoobie, the relationship is that all those electoral maps are derived from the polling data.  Each of them is based on some sort of synthesis of multiple individual state poll results (the mix varies according to where you get the electoral map).  The electoral maps take in some no-brainers, nobody expects Obama to lose CA or IL for instance, nor McCain to lose AZ.

The maps do tend to make things look much more set than they really are.  They are after all entirely dependent on blended polling results, and therefore carry forward any systemic bias in the polls they use.  The mapmakers blend the poll results to try to cancel out bias and errors, but if there is a fundamental common defect in the polling strategy/methodology of multiple polling sources, that will be carried forward into the map-making, possibly even magnified in it.  They also lag the day-to-day state of public opinion by probably at least 72 hours.

So bottom line, the poll results are derivatives of real opinion taken through the filter of the polling methodology, and the maps are further derivatives of the polling results.  Recent election results (past 10-15 years) have shown the polls to be far from perfect, and not particularly precise predictors of the final result until the last 72-48 hours before the vote.  Of course those more-precise final results come out too late to get cranked into the maps, and may not even make it into the public eye before the real vote.


I understand a little better now...it's not as cut and dry as I had previously thought.  Thank you for explaining.



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Offline Splashdown

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2008, 08:32:21 PM »
look, I'm not going to rehash the relative significance, or lack thereof, of opinion polls in general, or national opinion polls in a presidential race.  we have been through it, and through it, and through it again.  they are part of the discourse during an election, and they are going to be posted here.  if you don't like them, don't read them. 



I hope you don't think I was complaining about your bringing the poll over here; I was about to do it myself! I'm just stunned at the shotgun-like dispersal of the polls.   :o
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Patience attains all that it strives for.
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God alone suffices.
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Offline Hawkgirl

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2008, 08:45:24 PM »
Polls only really demonstrate momentum.  Otherwise, they're useless.  Just going by the last 2 elections.  All polls had Gore and Kerry beating Bush and clearly, they were wrong.  Some people don't decide until they are in front of the voting booth.  Others mislead pollsters deliberately..Others are closet republicans.  then, there is a reason why a large voting block is referred to as the "silent" majority.

I do believe Obama should be ahead 20 points in polls given his popularity.  The fact that the race is so tight can only mean a secure victory for McCain.  I'd bet a snickers bar on that. :-)  And I like my chocolat....
« Last Edit: October 22, 2008, 08:47:36 PM by Hawkgirl »

Offline NHSparky

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2008, 10:16:21 PM »

Ok, I'm going to sound really retarded here, but what the hell difference does it make with all these public opinion polls?

Obama has a huge lead in the electoral college (last I looked). Even if McCain can pull out the popular vote, the electoral college will put BHO in the WH.


Or am I missing something here.


Ask yourself this then--why is it there's such a spread in the national polls?  AP has Obama up 1.  Fox News/Rasmussen has Obama up 9.  Reuters/C-Span/Zogby has him up 10.  Gallup traditional has Obama up 5.

But why is it Obama is campaigning so hard in states he's supposedly winning by double-digits like New Hampshire and Pennsylvania?

And now all of a sudden everyone hates Palin?  Nah, no push-polling going on here, kids.
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Offline miskie

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2008, 10:23:27 PM »
Ask yourself this then--why is it there's such a spread in the national polls?  AP has Obama up 1.  Fox News/Rasmussen has Obama up 9.  Reuters/C-Span/Zogby has him up 10.  Gallup traditional has Obama up 5.

But why is it Obama is campaigning so hard in states he's supposedly winning by double-digits like New Hampshire and Pennsylvania?

And now all of a sudden everyone hates Palin?  Nah, no push-polling going on here, kids.

Indeed - there is something odd with all the polling data, and between Obama's constant "dont get too cocky" and Michelle's "we're the underdog' comments at rallies, I suspect that Obama's internals are nowhere near as rosy as the MSMs version. When one looks at the samples used in the polls, there are alot of assumptions made that I just don't buy.

I still think he is ahead, but not much past the MOE. - And with all the interest in PA, I get the feeling that the state may be at risk of falling away from the Dems - If by some miracle it does, then its likely that McCain wins..

Offline Crazy Horse

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2008, 06:05:39 AM »
  Others mislead pollsters deliberately..

Guilty as charged....................but it's so much fun :-)
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Offline Wretched Excess

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2008, 08:09:29 AM »

I have a theory on why the polls are so hopelessly erratic/Obamacentric this year.  the pollsters are struggling to come up with a turnout model, and the "excitement and enthusiasm" of BHO's supporters is nearly impossible to quantify, much less express scientifically or mathematically.  they seem to be basing a good bit of their national turnout model on dem turnout in the primaries, which would inflate his numbers dramatically since he was a demi-god back then, and since half of the record setting turnout in those primaries was due to hillary, and not him.  but I also think they are being led badly astray by the tsunami of new registrations, many (perhaps most) of which are turning out to be fraudulent.  they are expecting voters to turn up at the polls that simply won't, since they don't exist.  realizing that predicting turnout for first time voters is problematic, and being on unplowed ground, I think they are factoring in early voter turnout in the states where early voting is allowed.  that is turning out to be heavy in places, as well.

all of these factors are conflating to create a massive inflation of obama's numbers.

or, that's the best explanation that I can come up with right now.


Offline Ptarmigan

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2008, 04:24:09 PM »
These polls are taken by random phone calls. Some people choose not to answer, which many do not in fact. Also, the people who answer them could be the unemployed, housewives, or someone on their day off.
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Offline Hawkgirl

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2008, 06:26:15 PM »
being led badly astray by the tsunami of new registrations, many (perhaps most) of which are turning out to be fraudulent.  they are expecting voters to turn up at the polls that simply won't, since they don't exist. 

Excellent point!  One I hadn't thought of...This is the single reason why the so called "higher democratic turnout this year" is due to voter registration fraud.  And this is why ACORN is under investigation in so many states.

Offline Baruch Menachem

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2008, 06:37:15 PM »
And there might just be the problem that fewer and fewer Republicans are reachable by phone.  The polsters can't call anyone on the Do Not call registry, they can't call cell phones, they can't call unlisted numbers.  Republicans just seem busier in general, so phones may go unanswered.

Also, most of the internals do tend to skew toward Democrats, who as a rule don't show up as well in elections.  They are more likely to stay home.
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Offline Tess Anderson

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2008, 07:41:08 PM »
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111331/No-Increase-Proportion-FirstTime-Voters.aspx

And the youth vote isn't turning out no matter what Barack Hussein Obama says otherwise - at least, they didn't for any of the primaries.

The poll posted by the OP's pdf file:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf

They are still polling too many Democrats.



Offline Hawkgirl

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Re: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch (Obama 44 - McCain 43)
« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2008, 08:26:20 PM »
I've never received a call from a pollster, but I am on the Do Not Call Registry, and I do not answer the phone if I don't recognize the number on my caller ID.  I even assign specific jingles to people of importance.   Sometimes, I don't even bother to look at my caller ID if it's a normal jingle. 
What can I say, I'm old skool and don't want people to have access 100% of the time.

But saying that, If I were to pick up the phone by accident, I would lie to the pollster. :-)