McCain, easily. This is not 2004, the only election year in which the polls were anywhere close to the actual results - the MSM has lost all touch with reality over Barack Hussein Obama, and their polls were wrong in the primaries, and they're wrong now.
Drudge has a headline earlier that read "AP/Yahoo Poll: Obama 44%, McCain 42%" that was comprised of:
Interviews: 1,769 adults; 1,528 registered voters
873 Democrats; 650 Republicans
and this of registered voters, NOT likely voters. McGovern and Dukakis both counted on the "youth vote" and got nowhere. ACORN's fraud is rampant, but that's angering the American people, as is the way Barack Hussein Obama et al are attacking that plumber in Ohio for his tax troubles, while ignoring those of his sister-in-law and even his own campaign treasurer"
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/10/17/guess-who-else-has-tax-liens/And his co-horts in the MSM have already invesitgated Joe the Plumber more than they have Bill Ayers.

They've tried to make an issue out of Sarah Palin, that didn't even work with Dan Qualye. The Democrat Party has nominated a pig in a poke, but their tactics will increase in violence as reality comes crashing through to them. Nancy Pelosi might *think* she'll win a 250+-seat majority, but she'll be out of a job one way or the other.