Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, McCain 43% (16th October)

[bijou]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Monday through Wednesday shows Barack Obama with a 49%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters.

Almost all of the interviews in this three-day rolling average were conducted before Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate at Hofstra University, which began at 9 p.m. ET. It will be several days before the full impact of this debate can be measured in the three-day rolling average, although its initial impact might be apparent as early as Friday's report.

...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx

[Tess Anderson]

Stop his fraud, and you'll stop him.

Can anybody explain to me the difference between:

The "expanded" model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities.

and a *traditional* registered voter? According to Gallup, which is notoriously unreliable, Barack Hussein Obama is up by 2% among REAL likely voters, a statistical tie.

[bijou]

Stop his fraud, and you'll stop him.

Can anybody explain to me the difference between:

and a *traditional* registered voter? According to Gallup, which is notoriously unreliable, Barack Hussein Obama is up by 2% among REAL likely voters, a statistical tie.

I think that this poll tells us absolutely nothing apart from the fact that Gallup don't think that Obama is running away with it but have massaged the figures to his best advantage.

[DumbAss Tanker]

I think that this poll tells us absolutely nothing apart from the fact that Gallup don't think that Obama is running away with it but have massaged the figures to his best advantage.

The "Registered voter" polls tend to be much less reliable, and always heavily more Democrat-leaning, than the 'Likely voter" numbers.

[Wretched Excess]

here is my theory:  it is intuitively obvious to the MSM and the pollsters that The BarackStar! should be up 10 points.  so they are starting at that end and working backwards.

[Chris_]

Here's reason to hold out hope:

Ann Coulter:
In addition to the social pressure to constantly prove you're not a racist, apparently there is massive social pressure to prove you're not a Republican. No one is lying about voting for McCain just to sound cool.

Reviewing the polls printed in The New York Times and The Washington Post in the last month of every presidential election since 1976, I found the polls were never wrong in a friendly way to Republicans. When the polls were wrong, which was often, they overestimated support for the Democrat, usually by about 6 to 10 points.

LINK

I think/hope/am praying that the trend holds through for this election season as well, and come November 5th - after we put all the damned fires out - we can begin to address da BarackFather! as "former presidential candidate".

[DumbAss Tanker]

Here's reason to hold out hope:

I think/hope/am praying that the trend holds through for this election season as well, and come November 5th - after we put all the damned fires out - we can begin to address da BarackFather! as "former presidential candidate".

I've noticed the same phenomenon that Ms. Coulter notes over the many election cycles I've watched, though never gone back to run the numbers as she no doubt did.  I have a feeling that the 'Late tightening of the polls' in so many elections over the last ten or twelve years has been occasioned by pollsters trying to do damage control on their ultimate credibility after collecting all the Democrat and MSM cash they could scarf for selling it. 

[miskie]

here is my theory:  it is intuitively obvious to the MSM and the pollsters that The BarackStar! should be up 10 points.  so they are starting at that end and working backwards.

Correct. Just like doing one of those pencil and paper mazes we all did as kids. Start from the end, you'll have it solved in about 30 seconds or so.

I have to disagree on the 10 point factor. At this point it should be about 20 or so. This should be a Dole-style beatdown, but for the simple fact it isn't regardless of how well the numbers are fluffed and massaged is telling. Obama can't close the deal on his own merit.

[jendf]

Headline on Drudge:

GALLUP SHOCK:  49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS

GALLUP's 'traditional' likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll's margin of error... Developing...

That's encouraging.

[Splashdown]

I've noticed the same phenomenon that Ms. Coulter notes over the many election cycles I've watched, though never gone back to run the numbers as she no doubt did.  I have a feeling that the 'Late tightening of the polls' in so many elections over the last ten or twelve years has been occasioned by pollsters trying to do damage control on their ultimate credibility after collecting all the Democrat and MSM cash they could scarf for selling it. 

Hmm. Fudging numbers to what the MSM and Democrats want to see. The FannieMae philosophy alive and well with pollsters!

[Wretched Excess]

the difference between their current LV model and what they refer to as their "traditional" LV model proves just how hard they are twisting these numbers to produce a misleading result.  but at least they are admitting it, albeit at the end of their report

Gallup is presenting two likely voter estimates to see how preferences might vary under different turnout scenarios. The "expanded" model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures, but with a lower undecided percentage, and show Obama up by six percentage points today, 51% to 45%.

The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error.

[Chris_]

The MSM will not be pleased you have exposed their polling methodology.

Remember: there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

[Wretched Excess]

The MSM will not be pleased you have exposed their polling methodology.

Remember: there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

this is the first time that I have seen them openly admit that they are spinning the numbers.  I have seen proof of it many times this year, but only after digging through the internals.

I suspect they are creating a turnout model for the general election based on the turnout for the dem primaries.  if that's the case, then these numbers aren't worth warm spit. 

[miskie]

this is the first time that I have seen them openly admit that they are spinning the numbers.  I have seen proof of it many times this year, but only after digging through the internals.

I suspect they are creating a turnout model for the general election based on the turnout for the dem primaries.  if that's the case, then these numbers aren't worth warm spit. 

all the numbers they use are off-the-wall wrong.

The difference between Democrat and Republican is seldom more than 4 points during the Presidential election.
The number of undecideds at this point is closer to 10% than 30% (which is still high for this late in the game)

I will agree that pollsters are probably trying to factor in all of the new registrations, but as word gets out that more and more of those new registrations are bogus, they should adjust their methodology accordingly. Not doing so at the best suggests intellectual laziness, at the worst voter suppression through disillusionment.

[Wretched Excess]

all the numbers they use are off-the-wall wrong.

The difference between Democrat and Republican is seldom more than 4 points during the Presidential election.
The number of undecideds at this point is closer to 10% than 30% (which is still high for this late in the game)

I will agree that pollsters are probably trying to factor in all of the new registrations, but as word gets out that more and more of those new registrations are bogus, they should adjust their methodology accordingly. Not doing so at the best suggests intellectual laziness, at the worst voter suppression through disillusionment.

first time voters are part of the problem, but don't really get to the heart of their dilemma (and they really do have one).  they are trying to anticipate a tsunami of african american voters, even though african american turnout is already sky high in the general.  but then factor in the notoriously unreliable "youth vote", which has yet to show up in a single election, but is always going to flood the polls in the next one, and then try to account for the fact that first time voters typically turn out at about a 25% rate.  oh, and we have a woman on the ticket, which could spin things yet again.

the problem is that the accuracy of any mathematical model is usually based on data gathered in the past, and what is about to happen on november 4th is a first-time-ever sort of event.