Is the PUMA vote significant enough to derail Obama?
Although Palin has successfully changed the course...
The last time they attempted to estimate the PUMAs the number came out as +- 6 million. A shift of 6 million reliable Democrat votes (Of which the PUMAs are -- most fall under the "likely voter" category) to the Republican Presidential ticket would create a gulf of 12 million votes. - Assuming 120 Million people actually do vote, that 10% shift is more than enough to change the election, as the difference between Democrat and Republican votes will probably be 4 to 5% at most, if one assumes no PUMAs exist.
Then there is the Bradley Effect to consider - Im certain that some PUMAs do fall under the Bradley Effect as well, but I would think there are still at least 2% more unconsidered voters.
There is ONE issue though that may make the PUMA vote less effective - Location - If the Bulk of PUMAs are in states that we will already take ,or are in states that we will never take, then the PUMAs only effect will be to add to vote totals, but not electoral college which is where they are needed the most. PUMAs, IMHO, explain the tightening of the race in states that went for Hillary in the primaries , like New York, California, etc.. BUt I suspect those states will remain in the Dem column at the end of the day.
The Bradley Effect however - that could be quite unpredictable.