Gallup Daily for September 17: Obama 47%, McCain 45%

[Wretched Excess]

if the crisis on wall street is causing people to flip to obama, then those people just aren't thinking.  other than
to declare us all doomed, and blame john mccain for everything that has ever happened since the beginning of
time until right this second, what has The BarackStar! done that makes these people think that he is qualified
to handle this "crisis"?  and aside from standard boilerplate crap, the same crap we heard from kerry four years
ago, what has he said that he is going to do about it?

Gallup Daily: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
Obama gains an edge

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Sept. 14-16 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama regaining a slight, although not statistically significant, edge over John McCain, 47% to 45%, among registered voters, marking the first time since the week of the Republican National Convention that McCain has not held at least a one percentage point margin over Obama.



From a broad perspective, the race remains a statistical tie. But there has been a general drift towards Obama since McCain moved to a five-point lead over Obama through the weekend after the GOP convention.

Today's report includes two days of interviewing conducted after reports of the collapse of Wall Street financial institutions and changes in the stock market began to dominate the news on Monday. Gallup Poll Daily tracking data show that in each of these individual days (Monday and Tuesday) consumer ratings of the U.S. economy have become more negative. Similarly, in each of these individual days' interviewing, Obama has led McCain in election tracking. There is thus a correlation between the bad financial news and Obama's gains, although the data do not allow us to conclude definitively that there is a causal connection between the two. Throughout the campaign, Obama has generally held an edge over McCain when voters are asked who could best handle the U.S. economy, although McCain gained on the economic dimension in polling conducted immediately after the GOP convention. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

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[Chris_]

A statistical tie is a BIG win for McCain/Palin.

Like it or not, the Bradley effect (and a reverse Bradley effect) is very much in play.

At this point 4 years ago, J fing Kerry, who spent time in Vietnam in case you didn't know, was something like 17 points ahead.

[Wretched Excess]

A statistical tie is a BIG win for McCain/Palin.

Like it or not, the Bradley effect (and a reverse Bradley effect) is very much in play.

At this point 4 years ago, J fing Kerry, who spent time in Vietnam in case you didn't know, was something like 17 points ahead.

yeah, I know.

while it's true that obama is essentially tied in an election that was considered unlosable for the democrats a month ago, it's useful to attempt
to establish correlations between events and the poll results.  my only real point in my post was that if the it is the financial disturbance that is moving those numbers, then those people aren't thinking.

[Chris_]

A statistical tie is a BIG win for McCain/Palin.

Like it or not, the Bradley effect (and a reverse Bradley effect) is very much in play.

At this point 4 years ago, J fing Kerry, who spent time in Vietnam in case you didn't know, was something like 17 points ahead.

yeah, I know.

while it's true that obama is essentially tied in an election that was considered unlosable for the democrats a month ago, it's useful to attempt
to establish correlations between events and the poll results.  my only real point in my post was that if the it is the financial disturbance that is moving those numbers, then those people aren't thinking.

And they are not.

Bargain hunters are now scouring the market as we speak -- this is the time to strike.  There might even be some surprising takeovers if the balance sheets are valued above the stock price.

The stock market has ALWAYS had an upward trend over time, even after the Great Depression and 9/11.

[USA4ME]

Both conventions just look place within the last 30 days and it seems like it's been forever in some respects.  Election is still approx. 50 days away, a political lifetime.  The market and this shakeout will have already been old news.

.

[Chris_]

Both conventions just look place within the last 30 days and it seems like it's been forever in some respects.  Election is still approx. 50 days away, a political lifetime.  The market and this shakeout will have already been old news.

.

McCain/Palin should use this graphic mercilessly:

[bijou]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday is unchanged with John McCain attracting 48% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 47% (see recent daily results). Both men are viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters (see trends). Results are released every day at 9:30 a.m. Eastern and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

McCain leads 58% to 38% among those who regularly shop at Wal-Mart while Obama leads 61% to 36% among those who don’t frequent the retail giant. Overall, Obama leads among those who earn less than $40,000 a year while McCain leads among those with higher earnings. Among white voters, Obama has the edge only among those who earn less than $20,000 a year and his advantage among those lower income white voters is just four percentage points (see crosstabs).

...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Expect an uptick in Wal*Mart bouncy tales. 

[Hawkgirl]

Those polls don't include the silent majority vote.    I'm still optimistic.

[Tess Anderson]

Yes, I've heard Barack Hussein Obama is polling better this week because of the shaky stock market, but there are some that think the national polls are inaccurate, since there was Hurricane Ike and storms up in Ohio that caused power outages.

There are a couple of new polls that show BHO's lead in WI and OR to be dwindling:

oregon
wisconsin

Now it seems that McCain's doing better in these individual state polls all of a sudden.

[franksolich]

I dunno, Wretched Excess; I still remain steadfastly mellow, at ease, copacetic.

In fact, I think it's time to concentrate on getting more Republican senators and congressmen elected (and re-elected), than on the presidential race.

I could be wrong, as I'm not God, but there's very little I haven't seen before.

Now, if I were a strategist for the Big Zero, there's one thing in particular I'd worry about.

The Big Zero's spent all those megabucks, and the best he can do is stay pretty much even?

[Jim]

Yes, I've heard Barack Hussein Obama is polling better this week because of the shaky stock market, but there are some that think the national polls are inaccurate, since there was Hurricane Ike and storms up in Ohio that caused power outages.

There are a couple of new polls that show BHO's lead in WI and OR to be dwindling:

oregon
wisconsin

Now it seems that McCain's doing better in these individual state polls all of a sudden.

It seems individual states are edging right and ones that should not be are doing so.  The tracking polls may not have as much meaning till late if at all due to Bradley Factor.  That Bradley factor only applies to the dems and otherwise reliably left mushy middlers.

[jendf]

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but what is the "Bradley Factor"?

[Jim]

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but what is the "Bradley Factor"?

People are not always honest if asked about their support for a black candidate.  Reference Tom Bradley, black pol, who got surprized by this.

[Chris_]

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but what is the "Bradley Factor"?

In the first Los Angeles mayoral election with Tom Bradley, polls had Bradley ahead by a TON -- something like 20 points.  But on Election day, he LOST by almost that amount.

The newspapers (who were really embarrassed) went back and dd some digging and it turned out that people were afraid to tell pollsters, even on the phone, that they would not be voting for Tom Bradley because they would be seen as racist.  It is a human response to be liked by people, even strangers.

The same thing is in play now.  The Reverse Bradley is people who tell pollsters that they will be voting for hussein to purposely screw up the poll numbers, BECAUSE they are tired of being called "racist" for not voting for a 143-day senator from a corrupt district.
 

[Happy Fun Ball]

Also called the Wilder Effect (after Douglas Wilder of VA).

[Woody]

Personally, I love how McCain's "taking the lead" was soft-peddled by the MSM, but "Barack is back" is trumpeted... 

I overheard that almost all polling is taking place over landline phones...  Any thoughts on this?  Would it over-represent the left or the right?

Woody

[Chris]

Hey, Woody's back!

This is Woody, isn't it? 

[Jim]

Personally, I love how McCain's "taking the lead" was soft-peddled by the MSM, but "Barack is back" is trumpeted... 

I overheard that almost all polling is taking place over landline phones...  Any thoughts on this?  Would it over-represent the left or the right?

Woody

If its true (and I believe I heard earlier this year or late last year that this was no longer the case) then I believe these polling guys have factored it accordingly.  I don't think it favors either side though its a constant lament on the left.

[Wretched Excess]

Personally, I love how McCain's "taking the lead" was soft-peddled by the MSM, but "Barack is back" is trumpeted... 

I overheard that almost all polling is taking place over landline phones...  Any thoughts on this?  Would it over-represent the left or the right?

Woody

reputable polling firms have been compensating for years.  I have been hearing this complaint for 10 years, but I have yet to see actually a symptom of it in the real world.   and didn't seem to effect the accuracy of the polls in 2004 or 2006. 

[Woody]

Hey, Woody's back!

This is Woody, isn't it? 

Depends...  I'm Woody or WoodyTX on a number of forums.  I may not be "that Woody", but...

No, it's nothing sexual; once upon a time, I resembled a certain actor from a certain show, who has since turned into a nutjob. 

[Woody]

I overheard that almost all polling is taking place over landline phones...  Any thoughts on this?  Would it over-represent the left or the right?

reputable polling firms have been compensating for years.  I have been hearing this complaint for 10 years, but I have yet to see actually a symptom of it in the real world.   and didn't seem to effect the accuracy of the polls in 2004 or 2006. 

Cool.  I'm sure there's a lot of $$$ flowing into the research.  Yes, it was indeed a couple of lefties that I overheard griping about it, although one seemed to think that "only out of touch Republicans have landlines" (conveniently forgetting all of those lower class folks, 'yellow dog' retirees, and sweater-wearing Apple fanboys with VoIP). 

[Hawkgirl]

Most of those lower class folks have cellphones...stolen with stolen numbers. They need to communicate with their crack/meth dealers.
And even if they had legit accounts, they'll splurge for an iphone rather than pay their republican landlord their rent.  They have a different set of priorities...and a cell phone is on the top of their list.

[thundley4]

Hey, Woody's back!

This is Woody, isn't it? 

Depends...  I'm Woody or WoodyTX on a number of forums.  I may not be "that Woody", but...

No, it's nothing sexual; once upon a time, I resembled a certain actor from a certain show, who has since turned into a nutjob. 

I didn't know that Woody had turned into a nutjob.

[Chris]

Oh yea, Woody from Cheers is certifiable now. 

If you're Woody from CU, I remember your posts and glad you found us.