I Want To Remind People Of A Russian Propaganda Narrative

[CC27]

gab13by13 (30,806 posts)

I Want To Remind People Of A Russian Propaganda Narrative

When you see articles, even from reliable MSM sources, that Ukraine is losing the war, call BS on them.

This is the narrative that Putin is pushing for several reasons.

1. The war has become unpopular with unwashed Russians.
2. All that Putin has is his war economy and every day I read where Ukraine has bombed a Russian refinery. Gasoline is being rationed in Crimea, inflation is growing in Russia, people are grumbling.
3. Russia has suffered 1.16 million casualties since 2022.
4. Russia can't afford to pay its soldiers.
5. Russia is having trouble recruiting cannon fodder. Russian recruiters were arrested in South Africa for recruiting men to fight in Ukraine.
6. Russia is leaving its dead and wounded on the battlefield.
7. Winter is coming.
8. The BIG ONE - Russia wants to use this propaganda to force Ukraine into signing a surrender agreement that is backed by Krasnov.

Ukraine will never surrender.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220840238

You just reminded people how stupid you are

[67 Rover]

Ukraine is not losing this war???? 

[ADsOutburst]

When you see articles, even from reliable MSM sources...

Reliable MSM sources?

By all rights, every MSM outlets reputation should be in the shitter.

[CollectivismMustDie]

[SVPete]

My sympathies are with Ukraine, and Putin's second invasion of Ukraine is not the only reason. That said, IMO, neither Russia nor Ukraine are winning.

In some areas, Russia is gaining a few 10s square kilometers, but taking months and 10s of thousands of casualties to do so. Russia outnumbers Ukraine, but the Russian losses to Ukrainian losses ratio is greater than the ratio by which Russians outnumber Ukrainians. gab13by13's item 3 is basically correct.

Russia is wasting munitions - missiles, guided glide bombs, and drones - attacking civilians (hospitals, schools, and apartment buildings), evidently hoping to break morale. Hitler tried the same strategy with the Blitz.

Meanwhile, gab13by13's item 2 is massively correct. Ukraine has shut down 35%-40% of Russia's refinery capacity, and has hit many refineries multiple times, each repeat being after Russia has started to do repairs. The repeated attacks mean not only that the reattacked refinery stays offline, but that man-weeks of repair time and replacement parts and structures are destroyed, possibly with specialist casualties. This months-long effort has caused serious fuel shortages - for the military as well as the civilian economy that literally and metaphorically feeds the military. Ukraine isn't wasting its munitions and drones, and is using those against important military and dual-use targets.

At ~2:10, this ~2 week old ~3 1/2 minute video has an icon matrix showing Russia's largest refineries, and how many Ukraine has hit, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGq2FFKCiWA . Basically, the few large ones that have not been hit are far from Ukraine.

Ukrainian drone have also driven Russia's Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, except for coastal patrol boats, with major ships that aren't sunk or in drydocks outside of Crimea having fled/relocated to Novorosiysk. In addition to sinking and damaging Black Sea Fleet ships, Ukraine has also been carrying out an ongoing drone campaign against Russian SAM systems of all types, making Russia's anti-drone defenses quite porous. Ukraine isn't wasting its munitions and drones, and is using those against important military and dual-use targets.

It almost feels weird, finding something geopolitics about which a DU-member and I agree, but Russia is not winning in its attempt to conquer Ukraine.

Nor, however is Ukraine winning. Devastating Russia's military has not, yet, reclaimed all Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia.

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

If Russia wasn't bogged down in Ukraine, it would be actively working against the US. So, I support Ukraine as a hearty "Well, **** you too!" to Russia.

That said, barring some unforeseen, spontaneous catastrophic operational collapse among Russian forces, Ukraine doesn't have the manpower to retake its territory, and they don't have the time to attrit Russia to any degree that would move Putin.

[SVPete]

If Russia wasn't bogged down in Ukraine, it would be actively working against the US. So, I support Ukraine as a hearty "Well, **** you too!" to Russia.

That said, barring some unforeseen, spontaneous catastrophic operational collapse among Russian forces, Ukraine doesn't have the manpower to retake its territory, and they don't have the time to attrit Russia to any degree that would move Putin.

Putin was trying to rebuild the Soviet empire. Had his invasion succeeded quickly, his next target(s) would have been some combination of Moldova (in which he has surrogates), Georgia (more surrogates, already controlling part of the country), and the Baltic countries. Whatever the outcome in Ukraine, Russia's stock of tanks, IFVs, planes, ships, SAMs, munitions, and cannon fodder have been so depleted that I don't know if Putin, who is 73, will live long enough to see Russia's military rebuilt enough to resume his conquest ambitions. Ukraine has done Europe and the world a great service in that respect.

Russian : Ukrainian losses are around 3:1 or 4:1, courtesy of Russia's mindless meatgrinder tactics. That out-balances the population difference. Putin and his sycophants under-estimated Ukraine's ability and will to resist conquest by a genocidal enslaver, ordinary Russian men are paying for it in blood and limbs, and Putin's pride and arrogance ensure the bloodletting will continue.