Obama's lead shrinks in NJ - 16th September poll thread

[bijou]

Thought I'd post the polls I come across today in one thread.  There seem to be so many on a daily basis I hoped it might streamline the forum a bit.

TRENTON, N.J. - Two presidential race polls out Tuesday indicate Republican John McCain has cut into Barack Obama's lead in New Jersey.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll, McCain has narrowed his 10-point gap of a month ago to just 3 percentage points among likely voters, with 48 percent saying they favor Obama to 45 percent supporting McCain.

A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll has Obama's lead at 8 percentage points among likely voters, down from 14 points in July. In the most recent poll, Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent, with McCain having picked up 5 percent of undecided voters since the July poll.

Among registered voters, Obama's lead jumps to 11 percent (49 percent to 38 percent) in the Monmouth poll, although a third of the voters say they are not firmly committed to either candidate.
...

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj--presidentialrace-0916sep16,0,6057028.story

[DumbAss Tanker]

My own hunch is that most people who say they are uncommitted at this point will break for McCain/Palin if they vote at all.  If they were inclined to Obama they'd say so, and jump on the bandwagon.  Conversely, if they (correctly) perceive that all the press publicity and "Opinion-maker" pressure is on for Obama, saying 'Undecided' is a polite way of declining a possible confrontation.   

[bijou]

I can't imagine NJ ever going for McCain, if it did then it would be a blowout of massive proportions wouldn't it?

[DumbAss Tanker]

Not necessarily, I lived in NJ in the 90s (when Christie Whitman was elected), it is actually a fairly-evenly-split state.  However a NJ Republican is closer to a "Blue-Dog Democrat" than to the Republicans in the Midwest and South.  Going for the evangelical vote or other appeals to the base don't play so well there, and a large chunk of the electorate to whom religion matters one way or the other at all is Catholic.
Outside the Democrat strongholds - welfare sinkholes like Camden, Trenton, or some areas around NYC like Fort Lee, and a couple of educational institution-based places like Princeton - the population is pretty open to going with whichever party appeals to them on a personal and policy (especially tax and fiscal) level.

[bijou]

Not necessarily, I lived in NJ in the 90s (when Christie Whitman was elected), it is actually a fairly-evenly-split state.  However a NJ Republican is closer to a "Blue-Dog Democrat" than to the Republicans in the Midwest and South.  Going for the evangelical vote or other appeals to the base don't play so well there, and a large chunk of the electorate to whom religion matters one way or the other at all is Catholic.
Outside the Democrat strongholds - welfare sinkholes like Camden, Trenton, or some areas around NYC like Fort Lee, and a couple of educational institution-based places like Princeton - the population is pretty open to going with whichever party appeals to them on a personal and policy (especially tax and fiscal) level.

So possibly McCain may be an attractive candidate for NJ, interesting time ahead.

[bijou]

he GOPNation.com is produced by a group of grass-root Republicans hoping for the day that conservatives and the GOP once again become one.
battlegrounds: McCain ahead, just barely
By gopnation on Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Filed Under: Featured, battlegrounds

Our latest battleground poll shows John McCain with his largest electoral vote lead since we began polling, leading Barack Obama 279-259, with the addition of Colorado to the red side of the aisle.  With this change, the map of 2008 is identical to that of 2004, except for Iowa, which seems certain to switch from red to blue this election cycle.  However, each side has specific concerns:

The Democrats
Pennsylvania - which has voted Democrat in every election since 1992, sees Obama leading by just 1.6 percent according to Real Clear Politics. In Michigan, it’s the same story: a very blue state very, very close to turning red.  Without each of these states, the Dems would be doomed to their third presidential loss in as many elections.

The Republicans
Although Virginia is red on our map, this is more based on past history than anything else.  The three most recent polls show a TIE, Obama by 4 and McCain by 4, not exactly definitive, to say the least.  While the Dems can certainly win the election without Virginia, the GOP cannot, unless they could gain PA or Michigan (see above).  With that being said, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada (which total 19 electoral votes) are also very, very close to turning blue.  While Team McCain, can probably live with losing one of those states, losing two or three would be devastating.

Outlook
Increasingly, it will likely be the debates that determine the winner of Election 2008.  And because of that, this race is TIED and rightly so.

http://gopnation.com/2008/09/16/battleground-mccain-ahead-just-barely/

[bijou]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Battleground-36-charts.pdf

McCain 46%
Obama 40%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Tuesday, September 16
Race Poll Results Spread
Pennsylvania FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 47, McCain 47 Tie

Ohio FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 48, Obama 45 McCain +3

Florida FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 44 McCain +5

Virginia FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 48, Obama 48 Tie

Colorado FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 46, McCain 48 McCain +2

National Gallup Tracking McCain 47, Obama 46 McCain +1

National Rasmussen Tracking McCain 48, Obama 47 McCain +1

Ohio PPP (D) McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4

New Jersey Monmouth/Gannett Obama 49, McCain 41 Obama +8

New Jersey Quinnipiac Obama 48, McCain 45 Obama +3

National Battleground* McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4

[DumbAss Tanker]

Monmouth County is south across the harbor from NYC, pretty well-to-do, and the area (and Gwinnett's readership) are definitely Democrat turf.  Quinnipiac is more Trenton-centric, but also a Dem-leaning poll historically (though it has delusions of impartiality and some national visibility, it has always erred on the "D" side in making calls).  Judging by the sources, I'd say McCain has a great shot in Jersey.  Sarah Palin will certainly resonate with the middle-class women voters of both parties there.

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced the "Uncommitted" are going to break for McCain/Palin, for the reason I stated above. 

[GOBUCKS]

My own hunch is that most people who say they are uncommitted at this point will break for McCain/Palin if they vote at all.  If they were inclined to Obama they'd say so, and jump on the bandwagon.  Conversely, if they (correctly) perceive that all the press publicity and "Opinion-maker" pressure is on for Obama, saying 'Undecided' is a polite way of declining a possible confrontation.   

H5 for a point that can't be overemphasized. The size of the Bradley Effect in this election could blow all the polls out of the water. This could be even more exaggerated in the face-to-face exit polls. Some people will be intimidated by the possible reaction of "community organizers" if osamabama loses.