http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3485442I posted the latest Gallup polls in the Election 2008 about the possibility of Republicans regaining Congress.
The primitives must have seen it.
DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Fri Sep-12-08 02:36 PM
Original message
Battle for Congress Suddenly Looks Competitive: Dem generic lead slips to 3 points
PRINCETON, NJ -- A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.
As is true for the current structure of voting preferences for president, Democratic voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Democratic candidate in their congressional districts (92%), Republican voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Republican candidate (94%), and independents are closely split, with 44% backing the Democrat and 40% the Republican.
The new results come from a Sept. 5-7 survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention and mirror the resulting enhanced position of the Republican Party seen in several other indicators. These range from John McCain's improved standing against Barack Obama in the presidential race to improved favorability ratings of the Republicans, to Republican gains in party identification. The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.
The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.
If these numbers are sustained through Election Day -- a big if -- Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives....
Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-Congress-Sudde...
icanthelpit (14 posts) Fri Sep-12-08 02:39 PM
Response to Original message
1. I call BS...Obama's struggling will not impact House and Senate
A few seats are in jeopardy, but no way do we have to worry about control.
whistle whistle tweet tweet chirp chirp toot toot chirrup chirrupkarnac (119 posts) Fri Sep-12-08 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. It depends//
depends how coordinated the repugs coordinate heir congressional races with the presidential.
Explanation...
For instance say for argument's sake Bush was still running, if he TRIED to coordinate his race with the congressional races with his, he would bring them down SEVERELY dooming republican chances.
I would assume MCCain is a non starter. no or little effect.
Let's say PALIN actually inspires independent women and/or republican women to vote rep this year/ in that case, PAalin's presence in certain states/districts could tip the balance over into the republican column where women matter ALOT. considering women are the majority, it ALWAYS matters alot.
PALIN MUST BE DESTROYED!!!
Oh my. Isn't that a little violent there?
DarthDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Fri Sep-12-08 02:55 PM
Response to Original message
2. This is Absurd
If anyone needed any further evidence that the Gallup numbers (to say nothing, quite appropriately, of Raspberry) are ridiculous, here you go.
Yeah, yeah, we know; every time the polls tell the primitives things the primitives don't like, the polls are wrong.
The primitives are never wrong.
Doug's ex-wife makes one of her stupid comments; not worth bringing over here.
