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Author Topic: Electoral College Calculator  (Read 4194 times)

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Offline ReardenSteel

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Electoral College Calculator
« on: September 10, 2008, 09:08:31 PM »
Electoral College Calculator
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-POLCALCULATOR.html

My guess, and I'm getting more optimistic by the day, is Obama 260 and McCain 278.





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"When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion - when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you - when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - you may know that your society is doomed."

- Ayn Rand
http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=1826

Offline franksolich

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2008, 09:15:51 PM »
I dunno.

I look at that thing over and over, remembering past trends and other sociological data, and try to be as sympathetic to the Big Zero as I can, but as generous as I'm being to the Big Zero, it always comes up with the Big Zero getting circa 51-88 electoral votes.
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Offline NHSparky

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2008, 09:18:31 PM »
I don't even think it's going to be that close.  When PA, MN, MI, WI are all considered "swing" states, the Obamamessiah is in DEEP trouble.  Yes, he's supposedly leading here in NH, but you wouldn't know it from the sentiment I hear.  Couple that with a deep-seated desire to get rid of Che-Porter, Hodes (our Maoist Congresscritters) and Lynch, and NH will likely go red this time.

I still don't see how Florida can be considered swing.  Ditto Nevada, Colorado, or Missouri.  Virginia and Ohio will be close but will still go to McCain.

Hell, California is in play, for crying out loud!
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Offline Hawkgirl

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2008, 09:25:45 PM »
284 - 254 McCain  and I was being generous to Obama and gave him PA.  I really thing he's going to lose that state this year after his bitter comment.
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Offline ReardenSteel

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2008, 09:28:12 PM »
Quote from: franksolich on September 10, 2008, 09:15:51 PM
I dunno.

I look at that thing over and over, remembering past trends and other sociological data, and try to be as sympathetic to the Big Zero as I can, but as generous as I'm being to the Big Zero, it always comes up with the Big Zero getting circa 51-88 electoral votes.

I like the way you guys think. All the audio commentary was crazy generous to Obama. But Obama can get 89 with just Cali, NY and DC.

I like the way things are headed since Palin came on board and truth be told, didn't think McCain could win it before that. After the debates I expect another few States to fall our way that I would not guess would as of today.
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"When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion - when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you - when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - you may know that your society is doomed."

- Ayn Rand
http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=1826

Offline franksolich

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2008, 09:31:30 PM »
What I do is proceed from the "worst possible case" scenario.

In the worst possible case for the Big Zero--everything goes wrong for him, and he loses his cool big time, making a lot of major mistakes--at least he'll still carry Vermont and the District of Columbia, no matter how bad he is.

In the worst possible case for John McCain--everything goes wrong for him, he loses his cool big time, making a lot of major mistakes--at least he'll still carry the spinal column of America, North Dakota down through Texas, and Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah as well, no matter how bad he is.

And then one goes from there, making other assumptions.

 
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apres moi, le deluge

Milo Yiannopoulos "It has been obvious since 2016 that Trump carries an anointing of some kind. My American friends, are you so blind to reason, and deaf to Heaven? Can he do all this, and cannot get a crown? This man is your King. Coronate him, and watch every devil shriek, and every demon howl."

Offline Chris_

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2008, 09:31:43 PM »
Quote from: ReardenSteel on September 10, 2008, 09:08:31 PM
Electoral College Calculator
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-POLCALCULATOR.html

My guess, and I'm getting more optimistic by the day, is Obama 260 and McCain 278.


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I was very generous to hussein and still ended up 276/272 for McCain. And by generous i gave hussein PA and OH.
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Offline ReardenSteel

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2008, 09:33:57 PM »
Using the very simple and unscientific method of giving Obama all the states that went blue in two of the last three elections and McCain all the states that went red in two of the last three elections it's McCain 274 to 264.
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"When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion - when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you - when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - you may know that your society is doomed."

- Ayn Rand
http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=1826

Offline ReardenSteel

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2008, 09:38:37 PM »
Quote from: freedumb2003 on September 10, 2008, 09:31:43 PM
Quote from: ReardenSteel on September 10, 2008, 09:08:31 PM
Electoral College Calculator
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-POLCALCULATOR.html

My guess, and I'm getting more optimistic by the day, is Obama 260 and McCain 278.


.
I was very generous to hussein and still ended up 276/272 for McCain. And by generous i gave hussein PA and OH.

You were very generous, giving 10 more electoral votes than the country even has.   :tongue: 276 + 272 = 548
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"When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion - when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you - when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - you may know that your society is doomed."

- Ayn Rand
http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=1826

Offline Lord Undies

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2008, 09:44:06 PM »
I attempted to be realistic (i.e. blue New Mexico, blue Virginia) and came up with 303 McCain/235 Obama.

Poor O'Byebye.  He and his cohorts have spent the last two years convinced it was O'Byebye's for the asking.  Then destiny intervened.

It sort of reminds me how ABC (?) had no doubt that show "Commander-In-Chief" was going to be the runaway hit of that television season.   "If we produce it, they will come (and watch)."

The lefty/liberals' arrogance knows no bounds and it is based on absolutely nothing, nada, zilch.  It is like being arrogant is its own power, even though it has never worked for them.
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Offline SaintLouieWoman

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2008, 09:49:54 PM »
Quote from: NHSparky on September 10, 2008, 09:18:31 PM
I don't even think it's going to be that close.  When PA, MN, MI, WI are all considered "swing" states, the Obamamessiah is in DEEP trouble.  Yes, he's supposedly leading here in NH, but you wouldn't know it from the sentiment I hear.  Couple that with a deep-seated desire to get rid of Che-Porter, Hodes (our Maoist Congresscritters) and Lynch, and NH will likely go red this time.

I still don't see how Florida can be considered swing.  Ditto Nevada, Colorado, or Missouri.  Virginia and Ohio will be close but will still go to McCain.

Hell, California is in play, for crying out loud!

Missouri's rural areas will go strongly for McCain. Springfield, Mo should also go for McCain, but then we get to the City of St Louis. They'll be bringing bus loads of folks from the projects to vote. They'll have everyone in the cemetery voting. It's probably the same in KC. I'm hoping the regular folks get out and vote. Palin has everyone charged up here. There were almost 23k people at their rally here recently.
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Offline Chris_

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2008, 10:00:57 PM »
Quote from: ReardenSteel on September 10, 2008, 09:38:37 PM
Quote from: freedumb2003 on September 10, 2008, 09:31:43 PM
Quote from: ReardenSteel on September 10, 2008, 09:08:31 PM
Electoral College Calculator
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-POLCALCULATOR.html

My guess, and I'm getting more optimistic by the day, is Obama 260 and McCain 278.


.
I was very generous to hussein and still ended up 276/272 for McCain. And by generous i gave hussein PA and OH.

You were very generous, giving 10 more electoral votes than the country even has.   :tongue: 276 + 272 = 548

Yes -- I supplied the missing Ohio votes from 2000.  Or was that Florida?
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Offline ReardenSteel

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2008, 10:09:18 PM »
Quote from: freedumb2003 on September 10, 2008, 10:00:57 PM
Quote from: ReardenSteel on September 10, 2008, 09:38:37 PM
Quote from: freedumb2003 on September 10, 2008, 09:31:43 PM
Quote from: ReardenSteel on September 10, 2008, 09:08:31 PM
Electoral College Calculator
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-POLCALCULATOR.html

My guess, and I'm getting more optimistic by the day, is Obama 260 and McCain 278.


.
I was very generous to hussein and still ended up 276/272 for McCain. And by generous i gave hussein PA and OH.

You were very generous, giving 10 more electoral votes than the country even has.   :tongue: 276 + 272 = 548

Yes -- I supplied the missing Ohio votes from 2000.  Or was that Florida?

Or was it Obama's seven (very small) extra States??  :cheersmate:
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"When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion - when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you - when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - you may know that your society is doomed."

- Ayn Rand
http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=1826

Offline Chris_

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2008, 10:10:56 PM »
Quote from: ReardenSteel on September 10, 2008, 10:09:18 PM
Quote from: freedumb2003 on September 10, 2008, 10:00:57 PM
Quote from: ReardenSteel on September 10, 2008, 09:38:37 PM
Quote from: freedumb2003 on September 10, 2008, 09:31:43 PM
Quote from: ReardenSteel on September 10, 2008, 09:08:31 PM
Electoral College Calculator
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-POLCALCULATOR.html

My guess, and I'm getting more optimistic by the day, is Obama 260 and McCain 278.


.
I was very generous to hussein and still ended up 276/272 for McCain. And by generous i gave hussein PA and OH.

You were very generous, giving 10 more electoral votes than the country even has.   :tongue: 276 + 272 = 548

Yes -- I supplied the missing Ohio votes from 2000.  Or was that Florida?

Or was it Obama's seven (very small) extra States??  :cheersmate:

He gets the Bahamas and the Kenya votes.
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Offline ReardenSteel

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2008, 10:25:58 PM »
Real Clear Politics
Electoral Count With No Toss Up States
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/election_2008/electoral_count_no_toss_ups.html

Obama 273 - McCain 265

The good news is that there is an obvious trend in the right direction.
August 9 - Obama leads by 106 electoral votes

Of course it need not be said, only November matters so this thread is for us true junkies!  :p
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"When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion - when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you - when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - you may know that your society is doomed."

- Ayn Rand
http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=1826

Offline Chris_

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2008, 10:53:54 PM »
Quote from: ReardenSteel on September 10, 2008, 10:25:58 PM
Real Clear Politics
Electoral Count With No Toss Up States
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/election_2008/electoral_count_no_toss_ups.html

Obama 273 - McCain 265

The good news is that there is an obvious trend in the right direction.
August 9 - Obama leads by 106 electoral votes

Of course it need not be said, only November matters so this thread is for us true junkies!  :p

The numbers were a little brain--numbing.   The ads OTOH...
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Offline JohnnyReb

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Re: Electoral College Calculator
« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2008, 04:45:59 PM »
Thank God and the Electoral College, we have a chance.

Otherwise the nutty inmates would be running this country.
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