a word about the polls : let us not freak out when we don't . . .

[Wretched Excess]

get the "sarah bounce".

the real polls won't be out until theend of the week.

[Lord Undies]

Zogby has McCain and Vice President Palin at 50% (to 46 for O) today.  I'm not freaking out.  I know the score.

[Wretched Excess]

we won;t have a real grasp of how the numbers moved until wed or thur.

[Tess Anderson]

What's with Zogby? I know he screwed up the CA dem primary poll big time last spring.

There was also some CBS poll that showed a dead heat yesterday. Gravity kills the bounce.

By the end of next week, McCain/Palin ought to be ahead and  hold by at least six points, I don't think it's likely that BO/JB will ever regain the lead. I guess the debate  in about three weeks could be a factor, but that's doubtful, McCain will do well. The Democrats are falling apart, his campaign team has a bad history of being false starters. With Palin, there's little they can do, the best thing to do would be to ignore her and hope she fizzles out by overexposure. But that's not in their playbook to do so, so they (with their trusted MSM) will continue to attack, attack, attack  and that will only backfire on them.

[miskie]

I honestly don't put much validity into polls but I do believe they produce a very real bandwagon effect. Breaking 50% and holding on to those gains will cause more to join in and increase those gains.

[Chris]

I like watching Intrade and according to Polling Report, their 2004 and 2006 results were more accurate than any of the polls, in every state.

The power of the betting markets in assimilating the collective knowledge and wisdom of those willing to back their judgment with money has only increased in recent years as the volume of money wagered has risen dramatically. Indeed, by 2004 the Intrade market model went stratospheric in predictive accuracy as the market favorite won the electoral votes of every single state in that year’s U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile more than one respected pollster and analyst called the race for John Kerry as late as election day itself.

The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.

Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.

http://www.pollingreport.com/lvw_bet.htm

[Chris]

Zogby: Republicans Hold Small Post-Convention Edge

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

In the two-way contest in which just McCain and Obama were mentioned in the question, the result was slightly different, with McCain leading, 48.8% to 45.7%.

In a Zogby Interactive survey conducted last weekend, just after the McCain announcement that Palin would join his ticket, McCain Palin won 47.1% support, while Obama/Biden won 44.6% support.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548