DUmmies now having a big sad over 538 and Nate Silver's predictions

[Ralph Wiggum]

Star Member Fiendish Thingy (10,889 posts)


Nate Silver puts 538's reputation on the line with last minute hedging and a shrug.

Here’s Nate’s long-winded apologia from yesterday where he essentially says they’ve been manipulated by the flood of recent shitty R polls, but since they’re in the prediction business, they’re going to predict any way:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-3-big-questions-i-still-have-about-election-day/

And here’s today’s article, where he continues to hedge, basically saying “anything could happen, but whatever happens, we were right”:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2022-election-forecast/

I know he’s obligated to ABC to provide clear, numerical predictions to drive the dumbed down horse race narrative, but with all the anomalies this year, not just in polling, but in so many other factors, it would have been more honest to use 538’s reputation to say an accurate prediction was impossible to make this cycle.

First of all, Nate Silver knows his sh*t when it comes to analyzing and compiling polls and their relative meaning. And he is a big-time lib-turd. But he's at least honest.

But the DUmmies continue to piss and moan...

Star Member iemanja (51,066 posts)

1. You'll find out in a few hours

How accurate the polls are. I don't see the point of complaining about them now.

Star Member Fiendish Thingy (10,889 posts)

2. I'm not complaining about specific polls

I’m complaining about how 538, with its huge audience, allowed itself to be manipulated into distorting the horse race narrative into one of an inevitable GOP victory.

Nate chose clicks over integrity.

So you're saying if his analysis suggest the libs are going to lose, he is compromising his integrity? Idiot.

Star Member iemanja (51,066 posts)

3. No, you're complaining about all the polls

In an effort to convince yourself they are wrong.

Star Member Fiendish Thingy (10,889 posts)

4. You seem to be ignoring the fact that the GOP deliberately manipulated polling averages

And 538 continued to make predictions based on those manipulated averages.

Thats what I’m complaining about.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217333139

[SVPete]

[RuralNc]

CousinIT (7,474 posts)

8. I have ignored 538 for several years now...

...they got 2016 SO SO wrong. I'm done with them. And with MAGAts manipulating the pools of polls so they can scream "FRAUD!" - nobody knows WTF will happen.

Fiendish Thingy (10,895 posts)

18. 538 was actually the MOST accurate in 2016

They gave Trump 1-in-3 odds of winning, more than any other pollster or media outlet, IIRC.

You know what, lurking morons, feel free to run around in circles arguing about polling, and pollsters. Yall do what ever you want. But, please, face facts. The D party are the kings of claiming "fraud". Did you already forget about Hillary Clinton and Stacy Abrams running around for YEARS, refusing to concede, because of imaginary fraud?