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If the average lifespan of a great empire is 250 years, then our obsession with celebrity shows that the United States of America is well on track for its 2026 date with disaster. That would be the prediction of Sir John Glubb, based on his now infamous missive “The Fate of Empires.” While the British knight wrote the essay in 1974, based on his vast experiences and extensive study of history, it didn’t get much attention until recently, as he determined that great empires last about 10 generations or 250 years – and that’s about how old the Declaration of Independence is. Consider the following empires and the length of time between their rise and fall:Assyria — 859-612 B.C. — 247 yearsPersia — 538-330 B.C. — 208 yearsGreece — 331-100 B.C. — 231 yearsRoman Republic — 260-27 B.C. — 233 yearsRoman Empire — 27 B.C.-A.D. 180 — 207 yearsArab Empire — 634-880 — 246 yearsMameluke Empire — 1250-1517 — 267 yearsOttoman Empire — 1320-1570 — 250 yearsSpain — 1500-1750 — 250 yearsRomanov Russia — 1682-1916 — 234 yearsBritain — 1700-1950 — 250 years
An empire’s military success leads to wealth, which leads to decadence among the descendants of those who created that wealth, which leads to collapse. Though Glubb goes into a variety of signs of that decadence, he’s eerily prophetic with singling out celebrity worship:Let us eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die. The resemblance between various declining nations in this respect is truly surprising. The Roman mob, we have seen, demanded free meals and public games. Gladiatorial shows, chariot races and athletic events were their passion.Judging by the time and space allotted to them in the Press and television, football and baseball are the activities which today chiefly interest the public in Britain and the United States respectively. The heroes of declining nations are always the same—the athlete, the singer or the actor. The word ‘celebrity’ today is used to designate a comedian or a football player, not a statesman, a general, or a literary genius.
Regarding the fall of the Arab empire 1000 years ago, Glubb explores the toxic influence of celebrity at the time. Citing contemporary historians of Baghdad at the time, Glubb continues: The historians commented bitterly on the extraordinary influence acquired by popular singers over young people, resulting in a decline in sexual morality. The ‘pop’ singers of Baghdad accompanied their erotic songs on the lute, an instrument resembling the modern guitar. In the second half of the tenth century, as a result, much obscene sexual language came increasingly into use, such as would not have been tolerated in an earlier age.