I have a feeling Putin's days are numbered

[dutch508]

Star Member relayerbob (4,271 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216394990

I have a feeling Putin's days are numbered

This war is not off to a good start. It was stupid to begin with, and there certainly was not a uniform agreement that Ukraine is a threat. The generals and oligarchs are likely to be unhappy now, and will be progressively less entertained if Putin's Folly doesn't play out in their favor soon.

1 - It will take Russia years to decades to recover politically, socially and economically from this. They've been shamed and isolated now, and this will set the country back enormously.

2 - The oligarchs are losing money, big time. They won't like that. At all. And they know that Putin has a LOT of money. They will be more than happy to take it from him to make up for their losses.

3 - Military leaders care about honor. Even Russian ones. They aren't stupid, their honor is being crushed by invading Ukraine at all.

4 - If they are unable to achieve a clear military victory, then it shows their military as weak. This will also piss off the Russian military leadership. And let's face it, Ukraine is not going to roll over. There will be guerilla war forever, even if the Russians possibly win in the short run.

5 - The public is already protesting and this will likely only get worse. Many of them have relatives in Ukraine. Few will consider Ukraine as an enemy.

At some point, the military and the oligarchs are going to realize that Putin is a more of a liability to them than a benefit, on a personal level. Russia's history is filled with leaders being overthrown and blamed for all the ills that were in place. The generals and oligarchs will see at some point, if they haven't already, that their best bet is to eliminate him, blame it all on him, hand some of Putin's wealth to Ukraine as reparations, give up as much info as they dare to on Putin's screwing around with the West, as a part of trying to save face and get the sanctions removed. Putin is only as powerful as the guy holding the guns for him. That guy decides not to, it's over. No elections, no SCOTUS, no court battles.

I know this is possibly a pipe dream, but I have a feeling this is about to all come to a head. Maybe a head on a pike. Maybe sooner than anyone thinks.

It's too early to tell what's happening but the DUmpmonkiez already have the war figured out...

 

Star Member JohnSJ (82,273 posts)

1. Unfortunately, not likely

 

Star Member smirkymonkey (61,870 posts)

7. Why not?

What is your reasoning?

I really don't think that Putin is the all-powerful strongman that he tries to make everyone think he is. He, like Trump, is all ego and bluster. He might be a little smarter and more savvy, but he's not infallible.

 

Star Member iemanja (48,879 posts)

17. Looks like he's pretty successfully taking the Ukraine

for one.

Star Member smirkymonkey (61,870 posts)

36. Well he's hardly "Taking 'the Ukraine' "

Just that term "the Ukraine" tells me something.

He's trying, but so far he has only really managed to make inroads into the predominantly Russian regions of the nation, which isn't much. Sorry, but it really makes me angry to see anyone here showing any kind of support for what Putin and the Russians are doing to the Ukrainians.

 

TiberiusB (352 posts)

69. That's not support

That's observation. I've heard "the Ukraine" a thousand times.

It's a common mistake and I seriously doubt there's hidden intent. It's not like when someone says "Democrat Party". Putin can take Ukraine in the sense that he can occupy it. The military imbalance and guaranteed reluctance of NATO to get directly involved virtually guarantee that outcome. Should he succeed, however, can he hold it? That's the real question. Is Putin prepared to endure a long guerrilla war should the people of Ukraine, a nation of about 44 million, choose to turn to fight him to the bitter end? Think of Iraq and how quickly we "won" that invasion, only to be unable to secure a lasting victory. Even now, Western banking interests are trying to slow walk sanctions to protect economic investments and keep the flow of gas/oil to Europe going. Will Putin be sanctioned directly? Can he be, given the billions in Russian oligarch money stashed around the word with various international banks? Is Putin aiming to drag this out in the belief that the Right in the U.S. will retake power in 2024 and gut NATO, or simply sit idle while he threatens other former U.S.S.R. satellites? This is an immensely complicated situation, but when it comes to tanks and boots on the ground, he has the short term advantage.

Star Member iemanja (48,879 posts)

62. I'm not sticking up for him

Jesus ****ing Christ. Observing the situation in a war is not sticking up for the conqueror. The fact is that Russia's military is far more powerful than Ukraine's. I don't see how denying that helps Ukrainians. You do realize the West has made clear it will not enter into conflict over Ukraine? Does that mean the nations of Europe and the US mean they are sticking up for Putin too? And the majority of foreign policy analysts are up Putin's asshole, in your view?

If you can't learn to separate what you would like to happen from what is happening, that's a problem.

Where Putin would lose is if he invades a Nato country and the West adheres to its promises.

Star Member iemanja (48,879 posts)

65. Russian and Ukranian have no articles

Using "the" was an invention of the West (you know, like THE United States of America or THE Netherlands), not the Soviet Empire. I try to make a practice of using Ukraine but the fact is it's not so easy to unlearn 6 decades of practice. The first time I have heard about the controversy using the article was this week. But this is a debate among Westerners only since there are no articles in Russian or Ukranian.

Spell check doesn't even recognize Ukraine as a proper word by itself.

Any more insults you want to hurl while you're at it?

No... it's because under the Soviet rule it was known as Ukrainska Radianska Sotsialistychna Respublika. Za Ukrainyu for short. Just like Za Rodinya  was "For the motherland".

For Ukraine
With fierce tenacity
Let's move, oh brothers,
All ahead.
The right time
Calls for us -
Now, let's at once
Fulfill the sacred will!

CHORUS
For our Ukraine,
For her fate,
For honor and will,
For the people!

The shameful bonds
We all have torn
as well we ruined,
The Tsarist's throne.
From under yokes
And out of jails -
Where was oppression
We enter a free world!

CHORUS

Oh, Ukraine,
Oh, native Mother!
To you we loyally
Here swear.
Of heart blood
And its love -
All to you
We're pledging in the fight!

CHORUS

Then, charge, oh brothers!
Our banner's waving,
And sun is shining
into eyes!
Collective press,
Weapon's glance -
the heart's full of wreath
And with it the freedom's chant:

CHORUS

Za Ukrainu
Z ohnem zavziattia,
Rushaimo, brattia,
Vsi vpered!
Slushnyi chas
Klyche nas -
Nu zh bo vraz
Spovniat sviatyi nakaz!

PRYSPIV
Za Ukrainu,
Za yii doliu,
Za chest i voliu,
Za narod!

Hanebni puta
My vzhe porvaly
I zruinuvaly
Tsarskyi tron,
Z-pid yarem
I z tiurem,
De buv hnit
My idem na vilnyi svit!

PRYSPIV

O, Ukraino!
O, ridna Nenko!
Tobi virnenko
Prysiahnem.
Sertsia krov
I liubov -
Vse tobi
Viddaty v borotbi!

PRYSPIV

Vpered zhe, brattia!
Nash prapor maie,
I sontse siaie
Nam v ochakh!
Druzhni tysk,
Zbroi blysk,
V sertsi hniv
I z nym svobidnyi spiv:

PRYSPIV

Star Member Takket (16,020 posts)

27. i don't think Putin is very popular in Moscow........

but like drumpf he surrounds himself with impenetrable layers of yes men, strong men, KGB-types and sycophants. In short even if the people want him dead it would take a MASSIVE coordinated effort to get to him, and he surely has a 1001 escape routes.

Ukraine is going to fall the only real question is how much more difficult it is going to be than he expected. I hope Putin gets the bloody nose he deserves. Putin has completely committed his legacy to this operation. He has burned every bridge internationally except with his hard core supporters in the GOP here, and his puppet leaders in places like Belarus. This war will define Russia and Putin for the rest of his life.

Do I think there is enough anti-Putin support in Russia to start a revolution? Yeah. But those people are going to need to feel like they actually have a chance to win, to crack the layers of security Putin has insulated himself inside, to make a move. And I don't know if they will ever see that fight as anything but hopeless.

To the people of Ukraine, I hope you can find a way to save your way of life.

Septua (783 posts)

39. Trump wanted to go back to 1950.

Putin has made up his mind to go back to an earlier time.

"In a lengthy essay penned in July 2021, Putin referred to Russians and Ukrainians as "one people," and suggested the West had corrupted Ukraine and yanked it out of Russia's orbit through a "forced change of identity."

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/europe/ukraine-russia-conflict-explainer-2-cmd-intl

Plus, Putin is a sociopath. Hitler, Stalin, Kim, were/are all sociopaths with absolute power. It would take a better planned and manned coup d' état attempt to unseat Putin than the one Trump had.

 

[DefiantSix]

Star Moron relayerbob (4,271 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216394990

I have a feeling Putin's days are numbered...

Got news for ya, DUmbass. So are yours, mine and everybody else's.

Ain't NOBODY getting off this rock alive. 

[SVPete]

Star Moron relayerbob (4,271 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216394990

I have a feeling Putin's days are numbered...

For once I wish a DUmmie were correct, but Putin is more likely to die of old age than be purged by Bogey-Oligarchs. They are in Putin's golden cages, not the reverse.

[enslaved1]

There are reports of protests and demonstrations in Moscow, but you can guess what is happening to the protesters.

https://abc30.com/anti-war-protests-in-russia-russian-protest-st-petersburg-ukraine/11599182/

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2022/02/25/police-beat-arrest-peaceful-russian-protesters-who-risk-treason-charges-almost-2k-rounded-up-already-1205435/

https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/russia-detains-opposition-activist-who-c-idUSKBN2KT1UK

If this is what is getting out, imagine what we don't know that is going on. 

The DUmp doesn't realize that Putin's Russia functions like the dictatorship they imagine the US is (only when there's a Republican in the White House).  All the garbage they claim about suppression and censorship and violently stopping opposing veiwpoints is and has been going on over there for decades.  On top of that, Putin know how to play the game.  I doubt there is anyone he truly trusts in his government, and he doesn't keep anyone around who can't be taken out, either by his lackeys or, if needed, Putin himself.  The people around him know to cross him is the end of them, their families, and anyone else they hold dear.  He doesn't keep people around him who are likely to be willing to sacrifice themselves and their families to stand up to him. 

[jukin]

24 business days for Putin.

Those sanctions that the senile old tough guy Biden slapped on Russia that didn't include Russia exporting oil and gas are what we really hurt Russia.

We don't call them the stupidest people not just on the internet but in the world for nothing. DUmbasses.

[fatboy]

24 business days for Putin.

Those sanctions that the senile old tough guy Biden slapped on Russia that didn't include Russia exporting oil and gas are what we really hurt Russia.

We don't call them the stupidest people not just on the internet but in the world for nothing. DUmbasses.

And popular or not, Putin has a lot of ordnance at his disposal.

[DLR Pyro]

There are reports of protests and demonstrations in Moscow, but you can guess what is happening to the protesters.

https://abc30.com/anti-war-protests-in-russia-russian-protest-st-petersburg-ukraine/11599182/

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2022/02/25/police-beat-arrest-peaceful-russian-protesters-who-risk-treason-charges-almost-2k-rounded-up-already-1205435/

https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/russia-detains-opposition-activist-who-c-idUSKBN2KT1UK

If this is what is getting out, imagine what we don't know that is going on. 

The DUmp doesn't realize that Putin's Russia functions like the dictatorship they imagine the US is (only when there's a Republican in the White House).  All the garbage they claim about suppression and censorship and violently stopping opposing veiwpoints is and has been going on over there for decades.  On top of that, Putin know how to play the game.  I doubt there is anyone he truly trusts in his government, and he doesn't keep anyone around who can't be taken out, either by his lackeys or, if needed, Putin himself.  The people around him know to cross him is the end of them, their families, and anyone else they hold dear.  He doesn't keep people around him who are likely to be willing to sacrifice themselves and their families to stand up to him.

First off I support the protestors in Moscow and applaud their courage to speak up.

It will be interesting to see if the same DUmmies who just a few weeks ago were condemning the Freedom Convoy protestors in Canada and applauding the heavy handed response from the Canadian government will condemn these protestors while backing the inevitable crackdown that they will face from the Putin regieme.

[jukin]

First off I support the protestors in Moscow and applaud their courage to speak up.

It will be interesting to see if the same DUmmies who just a few weeks ago were condemning the Freedom Convoy protestors in Canada and applauding the heavy handed response from the Canadian government will condemn these protestors while backing the inevitable crackdown that they will face from the Putin regieme.

I've heard that the Moscow police have called the RCMP for some tips on brutishly putting down peaceful protests.

[freedumb2003b]

Putin has been President of Russia for 17 of 23 years (a 4 year break in there).  His days are NOT numbered.  He will probably annex Ukraine in the next few weeks and then declare it a protectorate or wipes out Ukraine as anything other than a geographic designation.

[USA4ME]

I hate what Putin stands for as much as other conservatives; just like we hated the USSR and hate Communist China.

But, unlike Dems and leftists, I’m not going to deny reality. Russia will win, they will occupy Ukraine, they will re-establish their missile defenses and bases along the border, and we’re back to a mini Cold War for a while.

When things settle down, chances are it’ll go back to what we’ve seen since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

The big difference is that Russia and China have grown closer, and that’s all on Clinton, Obama, and Biden and the weakness they’ve consistently shown towards dealing with both countries. Showing weakness to dictators never works out, which is obvious to most people. To Democrats, not so much.

Dems and leftists want to become dictators. It hard for them to do much more than waggle their tongues as they pretend to condemn what they’d eventually like to become.

.

[Delmar]

The primitive doesn't give a shit about Ukraine but Biden has made a mess of things and the primitive is just trying to wish it all away.

[ADsOutburst]

Even if Putin's days are numbered, so what? He'll likely be replaced with somebody just like him.

[jukin]

Putin has more intelligence and real politik in the tip of his pinky than all of DUchebags put together.  It is the upmost of absurdity for the DUmbasses to think they know anything of Russia, Ukraine, or the tying of shoelaces.