I think there IS a civil war coming, but it will be fought with moving vans. When Rittenhouse is acquitted or pardoned, Kenosha will explode. The only people who are going to deal with that shit are lunatic liberals, because I suspect good people will up and move. red areas will get redder, and blue areas will get bluer. Who do you think is leaving California? TV actors? No - it's people (like me) who got tired of it all. Before long, riots will be a lot like what happens in Seattle and Portland - neverending, and affect shithead liberals only. Fine with me.
You are correct. At THIS point, middle class emigres from blue states to red states are 80% conservative, while those on the dole STAY in the blue states. In fact, it was opined that Ted Cruz, who barely won his reelection in 2018 against Beto O'Rourke by 2%, would have lost had not newly-arrived people from California and Illinois voted overwhelmingly for Cruz.
(In retrospect, I think that the Deep State had calculated their mail fraud algorithms based on the 2010 Census, which didn't account for the massive influx of conservative emigres since 2012 after Obama's second election. I think that algorithm was at least 10%, probably closer to 15% which was the margin of victory Abbot had over his democrat opponent.)