Please let this analysis be right on the nose.

[dutch508]

Star Member Soph0571 (8,809 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215584231

"Yah, ok..hmm..yah..ok..Wait..HOLY SHIT!" The Trump Org is in deep, deep trouble.



Full thread by Kurt Eichenwald, @kurteichenwald for those who don't go onto the twitter verse.

As someone who has written for decades about corporate crime, I was reading the Trump O/Weisselberg indictment going, "Yah, ok..hmm..yah..ok..Wait..HOLY SHIT!" The Trump Org is in deep, deep trouble. And not because of the criminal charges. Because of its bank loan covenants.../1

...in fact, if even the smallest bit of this case is true, I think the Trump Org could be dead. It's complicated, but it primarily pertains to the 12th count of the indictment.
Taking this a step at a time: Like most real estate companies, the Trump Org is horribly illiquid...2

...this means it cannot readily convert its assets into cash as needed. Worse, because of the incredible incompetence and business idiocy of Trump, cash on hand (and access rapid loans through what is known as the commercial paper market) is small. So, the company survives.../3

...on loans against assets. Trump originally depended on bank loans, then jumped into high-yield (junk) bond market, which is why so many of his businesses went bankrupt: Junk bonds gave him lots of cash to spend, but he was too stupid to apply an analysis beyond "I'm great".../4

...to figure out how he was going to generate enough cash to pay interest on bonds. He couldn't. With his dad, he tried laundering money through Trump Castle to get past a requirement with his bank loans brought on by his junk debt, but got caught. Everything crashed down.../5

...so, the bottom line: Trump knows how to borrow money, he doesn't know how to manage it. Then came The Apprentice, which gave him lots of cash. Of course, he spent it all, then used assets he purchased as security to borrow from banks on apparent assumption that "I'm great"...6

...would fix any cash flow problems. He now has huge amounts of debt against assets that are plummeting in value because of January 6 and his toxic brand name. He *needed* the presidency to survive financially. I have always believed, that is why he is so desperate to keep it...7

....because if he was president, he could hit up the Russians, Saudis, etc to bail him out. Now, with him toxic and a threat to the country, those nations know that any secret payments they make to him run a huge risk of being discovered.
Which brings us to today's charges...8

...all bank loans with a business come with "lending covenants." These are basically a series of requirements, some of which include "you'll behave" in minor character. But *the most important part* of any loan covenant is the "books and records" portion. It is included in.../9

...every covenant for a bank loan to a business. The terms are simple: You maintain truthful books and records, you attest to us that they are truthful, and we are allowed to review them at any time. There is no "You can lie *just a little bit* on your books and records".../10

...it's all or nothing, like pregnancy: You either are or you arent. The books and records either are truthful or they aren't. Which brings us to count 12, which I think you can now understand the significance of:


...Forget Weisselberg. That is every every corporate defendant, every entity that could have a loan covenant in its name. Every Trump Org bank lender in the world, right now, is looking at this indictment, looking at their covenants, and calling the Trump Org demanding.../12

...they turn over every relevant book and record pertaining to these issues. If they refuse...BOOM. Loans pulled. If they do and the banks don't like what they see...BOOM. Loans pulled. If the loans come due (which 100s of millions do next year) no way they get refinanced..../13

...there may be something I am missing here, but I do not see how the Trump Org survives this without some sort of corrupt deal overseas. But even that seems far-fetched. Instead, it may be the biggest real estate corp bankruptcy in history..../14

......and given that those of us who covered his business for decades - back when he was a democrat/reform party/whoever would have him - and always knew he was a crook, all I can say is, what the hell took so long?

Emphasis mine

Seems like the Trump house of cards built on lies and grift is about to come down... oh my! How long before the bailiffs are knocking on the door of Mar A Largo?



What a glorious day that will be!!!
Please let this analysis be right on the nose.

I'd give it 24 business hours....

no_hypocrisy (38,515 posts)

3. Goodbye Trump Tower.

Goodbye Mar-A-Lago.
Goodbye Bedminster (where Trump wants to be buried).
Goodbye Doral.
Goodbye Turnberry.
Goodbye Aberdeenshire.
Goodbye Doonbeg.
Goodbye Trump Winery.

Trump potentially faces homelessness -- and no place to play golf.

 

Star Member AllyCat (12,485 posts)

10. Good thing there is jail. He can live there.

I have this vision that his stupid tower is taken over by the banks/city/state/some entity and used to house the homeless.

Star Member Dan (2,569 posts)

5. Mar A Largo is where I think that Trump made a big mistake

Because of the homestead act - he could have identified this as his home and kept it. Even tho’ there are legal issues with his residency at that location. But, he identified himself as an employee so that he could live there - thus (and I’m just speculating here) negating his rights to ownership of the property. So, to me, Mar A Largo is an asset that could be confiscated.

 

Star Member lark (18,314 posts)

31. Rich and right wing infest FL just like the cockroaches. n/t

Star Member Maeve (40,618 posts)

8. I hope he is right

I want to believe that consequences will happen for TFG, but I have doubts that the banks will finally stop letting him slip by.

Star Member JudyM (20,953 posts)

17. They could be forced to answer to their shareholders about this.

The decision to mitigate/pursue their losses may not be discretionary.

KG (28,500 posts)

9. so. not a billionaire.

which only the rubes believed anyway.

 

johnthewoodworker (490 posts)

14. The truth will never stop a Republican/Nazi from lying to all his morons. He'll start selling

steaks, or school, or ties, or whatever the **** else his friends can think about.

Lonestarblue (4,144 posts)

16. Melania should file for divorce quickly before all the money is gone.

There’s probably enough cash in the donations he has raked in by claiming to be fighting the big lie to pay off her prenup, illegally of course but what’s one more crime to a serial criminal?

Star Member PatSeg (38,166 posts)

21. "It may be the biggest real estate corp bankruptcy in history"

Well, that sure sounds Trumpian. He is always bragging about the biggest or greatest "in history" or "that the world has ever seen". He really likes everything in his world to be BIG. He should be so happy.

Beetwasher. (2,048 posts)

34. Can't Wait Until They Seize Trump Tower, Sell At Auction and it Becomes "The Obama Civic Center"

Or something like that.

 

Why are the leftists so desperate to destroy Trump?

Because he stood up to them.

Once he's gone, you are next.

 

[SVPete]

                                                                                      

[Drafe Hoblin]

Applying for use of a company-vehicle for 3-days... but actually using it for 4-days...  or even 2-days, or filling-out something wrong on the application isn't going to bring-down a 4-billion dollar corporation.

Shit, a low-level greenskeeper in Scotland can decide the fate of an international empire.   

[Carl]

A twitter thread by a certifiable lunatic.

[Ralph Wiggum]

A fun little parlor game to play with libs that have zero knowledge about taxes or functional businesses when they lecture you:

Ask them what the three components of a balance sheet are.

Normally a dumbstruck look will emerge from their furrowed brows.

Anyone who has not studied finance or accounting has no expertise to opine.  That's why I leave the lawyers to comment on weird legalese that a layperson doesn't comprehend.  Ditto to those of you with guns and the military.

Everyone has their own level of knowledge.  Stick to what you're proficient at, otherwise just shut up.

[Old n Grumpy]

Hate and vengence is their only hobbies, other than jerking off.

[Texacon]

When this shakes out and is done, Earl G is going to have to have the DUmp ‘hacked’ to keep the real crazy from showing. LOL

KC

[freedumb2003b]

A fun little parlor game to play with libs that have zero knowledge about taxes or functional businesses when they lecture you:

Ask them what the three components of a balance sheet are.

Normally a dumbstruck look will emerge from their furrowed brows.

Anyone who has not studied finance or accounting has no expertise to opine.  That's why I leave the lawyers to comment on weird legalese that a layperson doesn't comprehend.  Ditto to those of you with guns and the military.

Everyone has their own level of knowledge.  Stick to what you're proficient at, otherwise just shut up.

That leaves "do you want fries with that?" for 90% of the dummies.

[Ralph Wiggum]

That leaves "do you want fries with that?" for 90% of the dummies.

Or teaching Wymens studies or Conspiracy Race Theory.

[ADsOutburst]

A fun little parlor game to play with libs that have zero knowledge about taxes or functional businesses when they lecture you:

Ask them what the three components of a balance sheet are.

Normally a dumbstruck look will emerge from their furrowed brows.

Anyone who has not studied finance or accounting has no expertise to opine.  That's why I leave the lawyers to comment on weird legalese that a layperson doesn't comprehend.  Ditto to those of you with guns and the military.

Everyone has their own level of knowledge.  Stick to what you're proficient at, otherwise just shut up.

I'm surprised they don't say...

1. 2

2. +2

3. Equals 5. 

[Wineslob]

Or teaching Wymens Gender studies or Conspiracy Race Theory.

FIFY