TruthIsAll Returns! - Involuntary Commitment Overturned! - Election Is Decided!

[GOBUCKS]

tiptoe  (1000+ posts)       Fri Aug-29-08 10:23 PM
Original message
8/29 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA EV: 282,301,331,342 (ONE IS CORRECT) - x
 Advertisements [?]Edited on Fri Aug-29-08 10:49 PM by tiptoe
8/29 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA EV: 282,301,331,342 (ONE IS CORRECT) - x

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: August 29

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Obama leads the aggregate State projection model by 51.9–48.1% and the National model by 52.8–47.2%. He has a bigger lead than the near “dead heat” claimed by pollsters, bloggers and the media. That’s because they want a close race and don’t adjust polls for undecided and newly registered voters.

Of the latest 15 national polls, 11 are Registered Voter (RV) and 4 are LV. The RVs include newly registered young Democrats who are not included in the LV polls. Perhaps that’s why Obama leads by 4.6% in the RV polls but only 1.75% in the LVs. In 2004, Kerry did better in RVs than in LVs.

The Election Model's base case scenario assumption is that Obama will capture 60% of the undecided vote. He’s considered to be the challenger, since McCain is running for Bush’s third term. Typically, challengers win 75–90% of the undecided vote. In 2004, final state and national Pre-Election Polls had the race nearly tied at 47, but Kerry had at least 70% of the undecided vote (Gallup allocated 88% to him).

But there’s another factor to consider — Election Fraud. ...

full update: 8/29 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA EV: 282,301,331,342 (ONE IS CORRECT) - x

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3882048

The DUmp's resident lunatic stats freak may be back, although he was tombstoned after the 2004 election and may have to communicate through surrogate nuts.

Lots of goofy spreadsheet crap at the link, but nothing approaching what he is capable of when reality does not conform to his twisted arithmetic.  DUmpmonkeys love the guy because he can cook up math to make Dukakis look like a winner. I never knew why he got the granite.






 

[Duke Nukum]

It's always good to know the outcome of the election before the outcome of the election.

[InfamousAndy]

The Election Model's base case scenario assumption is that Obama will capture 60% of the undecided vote.

And that right there is why he will project Obama to win.  Whomever gets a majority of the undecided usually do.  I could use the same simulation with an assumption that McCain will take 100% of the undecided vote.  Who will win in that scenario?

Guess what?  Garbage in, Garbage out.

[BannedFromDU]

The Election Model's base case scenario assumption is that Obama will capture 60% of the undecided vote.

And that right there is why he will project Obama to win.  Whomever gets a majority of the undecided usually do.  I could use the same simulation with an assumption that McCain will take 100% of the undecided vote.  Who will win in that scenario?

Guess what?  Garbage in, Garbage out.

     TIA, you are an imbecile. I am a PhD statistician, and your model is shit. Not that you need a PhD to point out the shittiness of your model; I'm pretty sure I just saw my dog wincing at it. And his degree is in SOCIOLOGY.

[bijou]

Thank goodness TIA is on the case, I was getting confused by the polls showing a competitive race. Now I know there is massive poll fraud going on. 

[JakeStyle]

I think these idiots http://www.stealingamericathemovie.org/ actually used some of TIA's spreadsheets as visual aids in their "documentary"  .

[LC EFA]

Now don't y'all put TIA off their game.

We want them to think that the election is theirs.

That way, when the Obamarx doesn't win, the ensuring meltdown will ensure hilarity for the next 4-8 years from the raving psychotics that make up most of the DU readership. This will make for better threads on the DU, thus more laughs for the rest of us. Another bonus is that the democrats might finally get the hint and do a purge of the more lunatic-fringe elements therein.

[miskie]

Id like to know where TIA gets his numbers from - seems he makes one grand assumption about new voters and bases his data off of that.

Its the same assumption he makes every year, and every year its wrong.

[BlueStateSaint]

Now don't y'all put TIA off their game.

We want them to think that the election is theirs.

That way, when the Obamarx doesn't win, the ensuring meltdown will ensure hilarity for the next 4-8 years from the raving psychotics that make up most of the DU readership. This will make for better threads on the DU, thus more laughs for the rest of us. Another bonus is that the democrats might finally get the hint and do a purge of the more lunatic-fringe elements therein.

LC, there's a flaw in that argument.  You're assuming that the more sane (for this example) elements of the Democrat Party are in a postition to purge said "more lunatic-fringe elements" of the Dems.  They're not, for the moment.

Other than that, you're on about the psychoses there.  One element bothers me, though, and that element is the "keyboard commando" who is stupid enough to actually go out and do something really ****ed up.  That's the wild card.

Miskie, he gets the numbers from his colon/rectum/anal cavity.  Right where his head is.

[LC EFA]

Now don't y'all put TIA off their game.

We want them to think that the election is theirs.

That way, when the Obamarx doesn't win, the ensuring meltdown will ensure hilarity for the next 4-8 years from the raving psychotics that make up most of the DU readership. This will make for better threads on the DU, thus more laughs for the rest of us. Another bonus is that the democrats might finally get the hint and do a purge of the more lunatic-fringe elements therein.

LC, there's a flaw in that argument.  You're assuming that the more sane (for this example) elements of the Democrat Party are in a postition to purge said "more lunatic-fringe elements" of the Dems.  They're not, for the moment.

Other than that, you're on about the psychoses there.  One element bothers me, though, and that element is the "keyboard commando" who is stupid enough to actually go out and do something really ****ed up.  That's the wild card.

Miskie, he gets the numbers from his colon/rectum/anal cavity.  Right where his head is.

Well, yes , but I am sorta hoping that after losing another election the democrats take a good long hard look at what they've become, and realize that they need to "change" to become relevant in a modern world.

While the threat of an individual random nutcase is possible, it is not very likely.  I won't however discount the possibility of numerous obamarx supporters creating a situation that would make the LA roits look like a cakewalk. I do think this is rather unlikely, but is still quite not at the point where it is discountable.  Take the boy scouts motto and "Be Prepared".

[Candy Girl]

DUmmies don't like math. They are not good at it, obviously. Why else would they pay so much for a cup of coffee?

[Carl]

DUmmies don't like math. They are not good at it, obviously. Why else would they pay so much for a cup of coffee?

The same can be said about honesty.

His chart of poll trends has a Gallup dated 8/23 with Obama up 48-45.
The next mention of Gallup is 8/28 with Obama up 49-41.
Strangely absent was a week of polls Gallup had that had the race tied or at one point McCain ahead.

Wonder how this little omission impacts his overall "results"?