Author Topic: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9  (Read 231 times)

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Offline dutch508

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538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« on: November 02, 2020, 08:35:26 AM »
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Johnny2X2X (8,826 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214413318

538's Forecast goes to 90-9

Best it's been. I think it will finish within a point of here. 91-9 perhaps or at best 91-8.

I'll be honest, I have cited Silver from a few weeks ago when he said that if the election was that day it would probably be 95-5 for Biden. The fact that we're not going to get to that means Trump did close the gap in some swing states slightly.

So Trump has a 1 in 11 chance of winning according to this model.

 :rotf:

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NewJeffCT (56,331 posts)

1. They had Hillary in the upper 60s if I recall?

going into election day.

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Johnny2X2X (8,826 posts)

2. Yup

They had a really good model in 2016, had Hillary at 70%, Trump had a 1 in 3 chance to win in 2016 and everything lined up right for him to win. He has a 1 in 11 chance this time around.

538's model is pretty conservative. And the inputs to it are the polls, many of which changed their methods to account for 2016, so it should be stronger this time.

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getagrip_already (5,847 posts)

3. I thought he said once he wouldn't let it go beyond 1 in 10?

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I thought early on he said he didn't want to make a result in either direction seem like too sure a thing so he was going to stop the prediction if it passed that point. Maybe since it's the last day and only one point it's ok?

Anyway, the snake chart now shows GA as light blue. It's no longer light yellow.

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Star Member TheBlackAdder (18,233 posts)

6. It would be nice if 538 did an Election Night forecast, as to who will lead by 11:59PM.

 :yawn:
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Offline franksolich

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Re: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 08:40:30 AM »
Alas the poor primitives.
apres moi, le deluge
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Life is short, and suddenly you're not there any more

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Offline Texacon

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Re: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 08:50:59 AM »
It's going to be interesting to see just how much of an effect all the riots have had on people simply not wanting to tell pollsters who they will be voting for.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting, to say the least.

KC
  Build a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day.  Set a man on fire and he will be warm for the rest of his life.

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Offline Ralph Wiggum

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Re: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 09:11:12 AM »
Lucy has her football teed up, just waiting on Charlie Brown.
Voted hottest "chick" at CU - My hotness transcends gender


Offline franksolich

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Re: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 09:28:45 AM »
Lucy has her football teed up, just waiting on Charlie Brown.

 :-)
apres moi, le deluge
Pray as if God will take care of all; act as if all is up to you
Life is short, and suddenly you're not there any more

Give Republicans a yard, and we take an inch

Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 10:42:10 AM »
The public shaming and scolding for Trump support in 2016 is nothing compared to what it is now, and the blatant attempts to suppress expression by anyone but Dems on social media have been off the charts in comparison to then.  Polls are even less respected, and Red voters even less likely to respond to them, than was the case in 2016.  Even assuming their 'Improvements' were actually correct, there are other factors in play that didn't figure in 2016 so I wouldn't put any stock in 538 or any other poll results.

There's absolutely no enthusiasm for Biden anywhere, except possibly China.  The Dems are counting on the Trump-haters and identity politics, but there are indications that Black and Latino voters aren't keen on Biden at all and a larger-than-usual percentage of both will defect to Trump. and the rest won't turn out the way they did in the past for the Dems.  To the extent assumptions about those voting blocks are built into the projections, they are going to be inaccurate.

I truly hope pure negativity and hate don't carry the day, and people turn out for positive good, with the fraudsters swamped by real votes for Trump.
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Offline jukin

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Re: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 01:07:58 PM »
And then a poll jumped out of the bushes.
TRUMP 2017-2024 MAGA

"We are gonna win, win, win. We're going to win with military, we're going to win at the borders, we're going to win with trade, we're going to win at everything. And some of you are friends and you're going to call, and you're going to say, 'Mr. President, please, we can't take it anymore, we can't win anymore like this, Mr. President, you're driving us crazy, you're winning too much, please Mr. President, not so much, and I'm going to say I'm sorry, we're going to keep winning because we are going to make America great again."

Offline Texacon

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Re: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 02:19:07 PM »
I hear an awful lot of backpedaling from the MSM about how the polls are tightening.  It's freaking the DUmmies out, but they're trying to remain brave.  They're not allowing many of those posts to stand.

KC
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Offline Muddling 2

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Re: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 02:52:06 PM »
I hear an awful lot of backpedaling from the MSM about how the polls are tightening.  It's freaking the DUmmies out, but they're trying to remain brave.  They're not allowing many of those posts to stand.

KC

It's not unusual for the polls to tighten close to election day.  What has been unusual is the degree this has gone from a projected Biden "Blowout" to a "Horse Race".  Notably, the polls that show Biden in the lead are conveniently in the margin of error.  If Trump pulls this out, they can again claim vindication for that reason.
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Offline Texacon

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Re: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 02:55:50 PM »
It's not unusual for the polls to tighten close to election day.  What has been unusual is the degree this has gone from a projected Biden "Blowout" to a "Horse Race".  Notably, the polls that show Biden in the lead are conveniently in the margin of error.  If Trump pulls this out, they can again claim vindication for that reason.


Which is why the DUmmies are burying anything that actually shows Trump in the lead.  I've heard of multiple polls showing Trump ahead and any DUmmie who dares post it is buried.  They want to be able to proclaim Trump was never ahead in any actual/credible poll therefore, it was STOLEN!!!

Same song, different dance.

KC
  Build a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day.  Set a man on fire and he will be warm for the rest of his life.

*Stolen

Offline Old n Grumpy

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Re: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 04:09:50 PM »
So what time will the dump shut down?

Will it be Rooshin hackers or the chinese or right wingers.?
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Offline thundley4

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Re: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 04:48:38 PM »
I still say that the Democrats are going to go all out to give Biden a huge popular vote win using every method of cheating they can in the Blue states.

They will use that to continue to undermine President Trump over the next for years. They will also use that to try and convince the gullible people that the electoral college is outdated for our "Democracy".

Offline landofconfusion80

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Re: 538's Forecast goes to 90-9
« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2020, 06:31:23 PM »
Have there ever been presidential polls predicting the republican in the lead? What did 1984 look like?
One Who Grows (244 posts)
20. absolute bullshit. the cave is unspeakably vile.

I don't know how any of you can live with yourselves.

:)