Author Topic: I am really starting to get worried about November.  (Read 183 times)

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Offline dutch508

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I am really starting to get worried about November.
« on: July 28, 2020, 08:44:44 AM »
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Star Member GaYellowDawg (4,105 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213811683

I am really starting to get worried about November.

I'm worried that the polls are not reflective of the real numbers. I'm worried that, as in 2016, Trump voters will lie and call themselves undecideds in polling, and vote for Trump on Election Day. I'm worried that Trump will screw with the Post Office enough to throw off the mail-in ballot numbers. I'm afraid that all the usual Republican election cheats will allow Trump to squeak out a tiny margin in battleground states and take the election.

I'm worried that even if Biden does manage an electoral victory, that Trump will throw the country into an absolute state of upheaval and that all those crazy ****ers with long guns who were protesting the lockdown will be out looking for targets. I'm worried that Trump will send out his goons to cities and have those crazy ****ers join with them for his own private army. I'm worried that the police will just stand by and watch it all happen. I'm worried that our armed forces will just stand by and let it happen. I'm worried that there will be open warfare in cities all across America and that it could mark the end of our democracy.

Someone tell me I'm wrong. Please.

 :whatever:

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Star Member BlueTsunami2018 (1,073 posts)

1. I'm concerned that they've already rigged it.

Like they did in ‘16.

That’s why he feels he can just do or say anything without any repercussions.

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LiberalArkie (12,668 posts)

10. Probably have, including the mail in ballots. They end up being tabulated with the same machines.

What they don't want is a manual recount, like Gores. It would show up then.

 ::)

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Loki Liesmith (3,987 posts)

3. The polls were quite accurate in 2016.

If they are as accurate again this year Biden wins easily.

 :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:

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former9thward (22,661 posts)

37. They were not accurate.

All the polls predicted a Clinton victory. Clinton expected to win easily.

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Star Member PoindexterOglethorpe (14,539 posts)

52. She did. In terms of the popular vote. However, it's the Electoral College that actually
 matters. It does seem as if Ms. Clinton overlooked that detail.

 :popcorn:

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former9thward (22,661 posts)

54. The Clinton campaign team wanted to get to 400 electoral votes.

I don't know if their contracts gave them a bonus if they got to that number or not. But they had her campaigning in impossible to win states like Arizona, Texas and Georgia while largely ignoring the upper Midwest. They forgot they had to get 270 before they could get 400.

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Star Member Demsrule86 (45,366 posts)

77. None of what you say is true...so stop. Clinton did not ignore the Mid West.

 :popcorn:

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BannonsLiver (9,229 posts)

84. +1

Ignore the defeatists spewing defeatist nonsense. Bless their little defeatist hearts.

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Star Member Demsrule86 (45,366 posts)

76. Yes they were where she was in mid July within the margin of error is where we ended up

She won the popular vote remember and Trump barely eked out a victory in three states...right now things look great and historically ...where a presidential nominee is in mid July in terms of support is where they end up in November. We also had Comey coming in at the last moment...I really think some are not seeing the true picture of where we are. We are in a good place...if it holds...landslide territory.

 :lmao:

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Star Member LakeArenal (12,763 posts)

4. Not me. 2020 is not 2016.20

Biden is way more popular. Congress at least is watching for Russian intervention.

Trump is a disaster. As are his minions.
Joe is winning everything.

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Even Justice Roberts knows it’s over for Dump.

Star Member Stuart G (27,554 posts)

36. Trump is a ."..GIANT DISASTER" A LIAR AND A BULLY. Trump will lose.

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Star Member Hoyt (44,312 posts)

6. Not concerned about what he might do if he loses. I am concerned

people won’t show up like in 2016. Other than that, we should win big.

The Post Office is not going to delay mail more than a day or so. So, don’t wait until last minute. trump’s goons aren’t going to stop people from voting.

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quickesst (5,575 posts)

9. I think Joe Biden is right

Biden 'absolutely convinced' military would escort Trump from White House if he loses and refuses to leave
By Sarah Mucha and Eric Bradner, CNN

Still, Biden said Wednesday, he believes if Trump has lost the election, military leaders would not allow him to refuse to leave office.
Saying he was "so damn proud" of the military leaders who have recently criticized Trump, Biden continued, "you have so many rank and file military personnel saying, well, we're not a military state, this is not who we are. I promise you, I'm absolutely convinced, they will escort him from the White House in a dispatch."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-military-white-house/index.html

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Star Member ProfessorGAC (41,602 posts)

15. What's Your Basis For Your Poll Doubts

Per Newsweek, November 1, 2016, HRC had a 2.5% - 3% lead in the aggregated polls.
She won by 2+%.
She never had an aggregated double digit lead, and in only one poll did she have a double digit lead that was in excess of the undecideds. (Based upon another DUer finding it, I think it was Gallup or CNN)
Biden has an aggregated 10 point lead with around 6% undecided.
Also, there's no volatility caused by convention bumps this year. The conventions will be modest, virtual affairs and won't dominate news & analysis as they did in 2016.
So, the polls were actually correct in 2016, the same companies are running these polls now, the R was an unknown commodity whose abilities and lack thereof are now well known, and the Rs are not only less united but there are Rs actively campaigning against the incumbent.
What is the basis of your disbelief?

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former9thward (22,661 posts)

38. Everyone predicted a Clinton electoral victory. Everyone.

Including on DU. What was your prediction? Yes, the polls were wrong. They predicted a Clinton victory in the swing states.

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Star Member totodeinhere (11,564 posts)

48. If Trump does win again there will be nothing to plan for.

This country will almost certainly be destroyed by 2024.

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Star Member msdogi (297 posts)

24. Every day I remind myself of just how many people have been hurt by him

I am sure that every week, if not every day, there has been a person, a family or a community that he has insulted, cheated, lied to or generally shit on. And for the last 5 months, he has caused horrible misery in 150,000 families by his idiot and cruel maneuvers with this virus. He has consistently disparaged and demeaned all he does not consider worthy.
And all of his evil has been enabled, even cheered by all of the repuglicans in office. Many will face the voters with that in mind.
We can be sure they will do anything to keep their power, but if all the people who hate him vote, it's a landslide for us.
Yeah, we all thought Hilary was a shoo-in, and she did win the popular vote by a lot.
I am looking forward to Nov.

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Drunken Irishman (31,599 posts)

32. You're worried because you're believing a lie about Trump voters in 2016.

This is your mistake.

Trump voters weren't some uncounted group of voters.

On election day, the average of polls had Trump at 43.6%. He finished with 46.1% nationally. That was only an increase of 2.5 points nationally. To contrast, Hillary went from an average of 46.8 in the polls, to finishing at 48.2, or an increase of 1.4 points. That means, Trump did essentially only one-point better than Hillary did in what the national polls indicated.

Currently, Biden is at 50% nationally. Trump is at 40.9%. For starters, Trump is actually doing 2.7 points worse right now in the polls than he was on election day, 2016. But assume he sees a similar bump (as does Biden compared to Hillary), the popular vote nationally would turn out to be:

Biden: 51.1
Trump: 43.4

He loses the popular vote by eight-points - which is the biggest loss for an incumbent president since 1980's Reagan vs Carter race.

It's a myth that Trump saw a massive surge of support that was undercounted in the polls.

No, what happened is that Trump saw a minor bump from undecideds, but most those undecideds went third party. They did not go to either Trump or Clinton.

Think about it this way: on election day, 2016, 9.6% of voters were either undecided or voting third party. Of that 9.6, Trump won, what, just 24% of those voters?

So, you're wrong about your first point. It's not factually true.

 :whatever:

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Awsi Dooger (13,546 posts)

34. I think Biden will win a close race

Grabbing the 4 states Hillary narrowly lost, plus perhaps Arizona. Coronavirus and George Floyd will combine to turn what would have been a narrow Trump win into a tight Biden victory.

And I'm not going to fret about that or ask what's wrong with the country. It is beyond hellish to oust an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term.

There will be plenty of anxious moments between now and November as the race naturally tightens. The only one I'm worried about is that first debate with the head to head impressions. That can shift matters. Biden needs to be energetic and not wobble through complicated responses. His advisors need to emphasize short emphatic responses. "He lies. He divides the country." Stuff like that would be plenty. Zero need to play policy wonk.

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Proud Liberal Dem (20,131 posts)

56. Joe doesn't come off as a wonky person

He shoots more for the hip, which is what we'll need. Just remember that there are people out there who think Trump is awesome. And a lot of people who think he's just awful and terrible. Can't do much to shake the cult of personality around Trump, but anybody even *slightly* better and more coherent and more reasonable than Trump has got to look like a four-course gourmet dinner compared to Trump for most people. And gaffes aside, Joe is heck of a lot more likable than Trump is for most people. All Trump/GOP has at this point are lies and smears that aren't exactly sticking.
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Star Member Stuart G (27,554 posts)

39. YOU ARE WRONG...TRUMP DID NOT FOLLOW THE RULES: RULE ONE..DON'T LIE!!! ESPECIALLY

ABOUT VERY, VERY IMPORTANT EVENTS AND HAPPENINGS!!!!


(I got the feeling that that rule is somewhere else too????)    ....
.......much more simple...Like, "Thou shall not lie"


Also, do you think that a whole lot of others are mad cause he lied about very important events?
............     
...................................What do you think?..........

 :mental:

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radius777 (1,737 posts)

79. +1. It's good to be on edge.

Last time when people raised concerns about Hilllary's campaign people were shouted down and told to think positive.

I supported Hillary from the beginning, but her campaign was run by overly soft/out of touch people like Podesta, Mook, Fallon etc who sucked, and who took a win for granted instead of burning Trump to the ground like they should have.

Biden as an old white guy escapes the sexism Hillary had to deal with - and this time around Trump has a disastrous record to defend whereas last time he could just shout about 'the establishment'. So Biden is in a far better position that Hillary was, despite Trump being an incumbent.

The problem as you raise is Trump is the president and has the wicked Barr to do his dirty work. They will clearly try to suppress votes, slow the mail down, etc - basically gum up the system to prevent the inevitable. But I don't think it will be enough, as long as we get out the vote we will win, hopefully bigtime to also retake the Senate.

 ::)

The torch of moral clarity since 12/18/07

2016 DOTY: 06 Omaha Steve - Is dying for ****'s face! How could you not vote for him, you heartless bastards!?!

Offline landofconfusion80

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Re: I am really starting to get worried about November.
« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2020, 08:50:06 AM »
That's some excellent concern trolling right there. Biden is going to win. Hes going to win so big that the majority of Democrats dont even need to bother to get out and vote.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 10:35:09 AM by landofconfusion80 »
One Who Grows (244 posts)
20. absolute bullshit. the cave is unspeakably vile.

I don't know how any of you can live with yourselves.

:)

Offline franksolich

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Re: I am really starting to get worried about November.
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2020, 08:59:49 AM »
The yellow primitive forgets that while Trump supporters lie to the pollsters, those on the other side are perfectly free to lie to pollsters too.

Answering questions by pollsters is not given under sworn oath.
apres moi, le deluge
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Offline Karin

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Re: I am really starting to get worried about November.
« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2020, 09:11:30 AM »
They never talk about what the rest of the internet is talking about, which is Joe's obvious dementia. 

Offline Zathras

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Re: I am really starting to get worried about November.
« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2020, 09:54:45 AM »
I have a feeling that the election isn't going to turn out like the DUmbasses hope and pray for....

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Poll: 62% of Americans Say They Have Political Views They%u2019re Afraid to Share.

A new Cato national survey finds that self censorship is on the rise in the United States. Nearly two-thirds of Americans say the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive. The share of Americans who self censor has risen several points since 2017 when 58% of Americans agreed with this statement.

These fears cross partisan lines. Majorities of Democrats (52%), independents (59%) and Republicans (77%) all agree they have political opinions they are afraid to share.

The rest of the article can be read here.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 11:55:09 AM by Zathras »
Solve a man's problem with violence and help him for a day. Teach a man how to solve his problems with violence, help him for a lifetime - Belkar Bitterleaf

Offline 67 Rover

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Re: I am really starting to get worried about November.
« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2020, 09:58:34 AM »
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Star Member GaYellowDawg (4,105 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213811683

I am really starting to get worried about November.

I'm worried that the polls are not reflective of the real numbers. I'm worried that, as in 2016, Trump voters will lie and call themselves undecideds in polling, and vote for Trump on Election Day. I'm worried that Trump will screw with the Post Office enough to throw off the mail-in ballot numbers. I'm afraid that all the usual Republican election cheats will allow Trump to squeak out a tiny margin in battleground states and take the election.

I'm worried that even if Biden does manage an electoral victory, that Trump will throw the country into an absolute state of upheaval and that all those crazy ****ers with long guns who were protesting the lockdown will be out looking for targets. I'm worried that Trump will send out his goons to cities and have those crazy ****ers

Anyone know the current going rate for a goon? Is this something that can be done part time to pickup a little extra cash?
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Online DLR Pyro

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Re: I am really starting to get worried about November.
« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2020, 10:24:10 AM »
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I'm worried that, as in 2016, Trump voters will lie and call themselves undecideds in polling, and vote for Trump on Election Day.

Damn those Trump voters!  There should be a law against the secret ballot!!!!!
Trump Won.  Get over it!

Basking in the glow of my white privilege


Police lives matter.

Offline landofconfusion80

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Re: I am really starting to get worried about November.
« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2020, 10:36:17 AM »
Anyone know the current going rate for a goon? Is this something that can be done part time to pickup a little extra cash?
It's certainly got to be a resume booster.
One Who Grows (244 posts)
20. absolute bullshit. the cave is unspeakably vile.

I don't know how any of you can live with yourselves.

:)

Offline ADsOutburst

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Re: I am really starting to get worried about November.
« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2020, 11:26:13 AM »
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I'm worried that, as in 2016, Trump voters will lie and call themselves undecideds in polling, and vote for Trump on Election Day.
The left created the environment that created discreet Trump supporters, so don't complain.