Author Topic: Model That's Correctly Predicted Popular Vote 16 Times Shows Trump Losing in Lan  (Read 290 times)

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Offline dutch508

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sunonmars (6,609 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213463425

Model That's Correctly Predicted Popular Vote 16 Times Shows Trump Losing in Landslide

https://www.politicususa.com/2020/05/20/model-thats-correctly-predicted-popular-vote-16-times-shows-trump-losing-in-landslide.html

Using economic factors such as unemployment and inflation, Oxford Economics predicts former Vice President Joe Biden will sweep the popular vote with 65%.

Trump would win just 35% of the vote under this modeling. This would be a historic and humiliating defeat for an incumbent on par with William H. Taft’s loss in 1912.

Neither party has won less than 40% in a two horse race since 1972, so the model should be taken with caution. However, before the pandemic Oxford Economics had Trump winning comfortably with 55% support.

The model predicts Biden winning Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina. These are all states that voted for Trump in 2016, some by wafer thin margins.

If the Oxford forecast is correct, Biden would win 328 electoral college votes, while Trump would garner just 210. Under those circumstances, the Democratic victory would be historic and substantial.

It is worth noting this is based on the popular vote as Oxford Economics does not specifically model electoral college votes.

Oxford Economics’ model was incorrect only twice: in 1968 when Richard Nixon staged the political comeback of the century, and in 1976 when Jimmy Carter surprised many by defeating incumbent Gerald Ford.

How'd it do last time?

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roamer65 (19,424 posts)

3. I smell coattails.   1932 level coattails.

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Star Member pwb (4,777 posts)

4. I hope I live to see him totally humiliated.

For those he killed.

 :whatever:

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Star Member dsc (48,537 posts)

16. If that isn't a showing of how insane the EC is nothing is

With barely a third of the vote Trump would still win 242 electoral votes. That is nuts. That Nixon race he won 49 states.

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Offline Carl

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They need to take a basic civics class.

Offline franksolich

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  • ^^^playing the last half of the ninth inning
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Offline thundley4

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Even with the COVID-19 Dempanic, the economy is about where it was under Barry Soetoro his first term and he got reelected.

OTOH, President Trump has shown that he can bring an economy back from Obummer doldrums.

Offline FiddyBeowulf

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It is worth noting this is based on the popular vote as Oxford Economics does not specifically model electoral college votes.
They should have led with that so we would know to ignore the rest.
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Offline USA4ME

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Yeah. Right.

Biden doesn’t even know what planet he’s on but he’s killing it in the polls.

.
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Offline 67 Rover

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Yeah. Right.

Biden doesn’t even know what planet he’s on but he’s killing it in the polls.

.

Any excuses from the DUmmies yet on the big win in Virginia city for the three newly elected Conservatives?
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Offline Karin

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People are going to blame those dem governors for destroying their economies, not Trump. 

Offline Mr Mannn

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It is called 'Inevitability Porn." It feeds a Lefty fantasy that they can never lose. while good money can be made feeding Lefty appetites, you need to leave before they think to ask for their money back.

Offline Ptarmigan

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sunonmars (6,609 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213463425

Model That's Correctly Predicted Popular Vote 16 Times Shows Trump Losing in Landslide

https://www.politicususa.com/2020/05/20/model-thats-correctly-predicted-popular-vote-16-times-shows-trump-losing-in-landslide.html

Using economic factors such as unemployment and inflation, Oxford Economics predicts former Vice President Joe Biden will sweep the popular vote with 65%.

Trump would win just 35% of the vote under this modeling. This would be a historic and humiliating defeat for an incumbent on par with William H. Taft’s loss in 1912.

Neither party has won less than 40% in a two horse race since 1972, so the model should be taken with caution. However, before the pandemic Oxford Economics had Trump winning comfortably with 55% support.

The model predicts Biden winning Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina. These are all states that voted for Trump in 2016, some by wafer thin margins.

If the Oxford forecast is correct, Biden would win 328 electoral college votes, while Trump would garner just 210. Under those circumstances, the Democratic victory would be historic and substantial.

It is worth noting this is based on the popular vote as Oxford Economics does not specifically model electoral college votes.

Oxford Economics’ model was incorrect only twice: in 1968 when Richard Nixon staged the political comeback of the century, and in 1976 when Jimmy Carter surprised many by defeating incumbent Gerald Ford.

Sigh. These are just forecast models.
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Offline Ralph Wiggum

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Paging Truth-is-All, aka Richard Charnin...please report to the white courtesy phone!!!

Ralphie can run 1 million Monte Carlo simulations and cherry pick the data that supports a particular argument or viewpoint.
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