What happened in California's 25th?

[dutch508]

greenman3610 (3,682 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213439140

What happened in California's 25th?
One would think, superficially, that this would be a slam dunk?

Before I read the thread, my guesses at DUmpmonkie excuses:

"It was a heavy red district"
"Voter Suppression"
"Rigged Votes"
"Lies about the leftist candidate"
"COVID scared too many dems"

and of course

"It doesn't matter 'cause will flip it in NOV."

now- on to the thread...

Star Member JI7 (76,110 posts)

1. Why would a longtime republican held seat which we picked up during

a blue wave be a slam dunk ?

Especially in Special election.

 

Star Member CaliforniaPeggy (132,024 posts)

3. I have a link to an article by Cook Political analysis which explains.

It's a great article!

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/california-house/ca-25-republicans-triumph-garcia-starts-out-toss-november

OH!!!! Gotta check out the article...

1. Quality  In a cycle when the NRCC has struggled to recruit in other races, Garcia proved a political unicorn: as a military veteran, son of a Mexican immigrant and protege of popular former GOP Rep. Buck McKeon, Garcia is many things Trump is not. And, the Navy fighter pilot-turned-Raytheon executive billed himself more as a "badass" than a partisan.

2. Local turnout dynamics In the 25th CD and other exurban, diversifying districts like it, the highest-propensity voters — and the most reliable vote-by-mail partakers — tend to be older, white residents who lean Republican.

So---- how did it flip blue in the last election if a majority are all racist white trump voters?

Current results (with 143,000 votes counted) illustrate this: Smith underperformed Hill's 2018 vote share by seven points in the wealthier Ventura County section of the 25th CD. But, she underperformed Hill by 11 points in Los Angeles County, suggesting Democrats failed to motivate lower-income, non-white Democrats in working-class cities like Lancaster and Palmdale to return ballots.

i.e. the dem candidate sucked.

3. Less at stake nationally In 2018, suburban moderate Republicans and independents who didn't like Trump only had one option to send a message: vote for a Democrat for House as a check on the president. But in this one-off race, voters who may have liked Garcia but not Trump didn't have to choose between Garcia or a Democratic House: they could have both. 

  they could have voted for a dem to do the same thing this time, asshat.

Garcia doesn't have much time to bask in his victory and his status as the soon-to-be only House Republican district where Clinton took a majority of the vote. He'll face Smith again in November in another tough race for a full term.

The good news for Smith, of course, is that the latter two factors — the low turnout and the special's localization — are unlikely to repeat in November. The presidential race is certain to drive out a much larger, more diverse electorate, and Democrats will have plenty of material to tie Garcia to Trump, considering the president embraced Garcia relentlessly on Twitter in the past week.

See! It's a good thing the dem lost- now they can beat Garcia in NOV... 

anyway- back to DU...

Star Member Hoyt (43,203 posts)

7. Don't take the loss as a harbinger. But, it's darn sure a warning that our disdain

for trump’s and GOPer’s performance doesn’t necessarily translate to winning elections.

 

Star Member SCantiGOP (10,063 posts)

8. Several prediction sites lean this Dem in Nov.

There will be a much bigger, and more Democratic, turnout.
Getting to actually, finally, vote to remove trump will bring out the vote.

 

kysrsoze (4,983 posts)

9. That's what I'm hoping. I don't want that ass staying on as my Rep

I think for the G.E., Garcia will be ousted. I still don’t understand why so many Dems don’t realized how important it is to vote in EVERY primary and election.

 

[SVPete]

Looking at W'pedia's article about the district, it leans R, but close enough to be competitive. The two things that should worry DU-folk:

* Lack of general-level enthusiasm for the Ds;

* The vote evidences that a strong majority of the district's voters do not feel that Hill got a raw deal.

IMO, national level poll samples are so gamed and enough people lie to pollsters that polls are basically worthless until proven otherwise. So I think Trump will at least be strong in November, and there's a good chance the newly elected R will keep the seat. And a Trump landslide win would not at all surprise me.

[jukin]

Garcia had to bog a win and was outside the typical margin of democrat cheating and fraud.

In Kalifornia that democrat margin of cheating and fraud is pretty high, I'd put it at 6%+ with ballot cheati...eerrrr harvesting, dead voters, and other older cheating methods.

[thundley4]

Garcia had to bog a win and was outside the typical margin of democrat cheating and fraud.

In Kalifornia that democrat margin of cheating and fraud is pretty high, I'd put it at 6%+ with ballot cheati...eerrrr harvesting, dead voters, and other older cheating methods.

The Democrats tried a last ditch effort to cheat. They added another polling place in a heavily Democrat/minority precinct.

[DLR Pyro]

The Democrats tried a last ditch effort to cheat. They added another polling place in a heavily Democrat/minority precinct.

and they still lost.

My take on this was that Miss Throuple "won" in 2018 because of ballot harvesting.  This special election was a wake up call to Republicans in the district to take back their district.