http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6668864Oh my.
The whistling's already started, even before the convention:
Motown_Johnny (707 posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:14 PM
Original message
OK. His lead has shrunk. We know! He went on vacation for a week and the numbers tightened
And Russia gave McGaffe some prime talking points at just the worst time.
The polls will move again once the Conventions start.
The polls will move again after the Conventions end.
The polls will move again after the first debate.
No poll that excludes 3rd party candidates are accurate, McGaffe's support is soft and Barr can suck up 3% to 5% of his vote in some states.
Chill
Yeah, one's reasonably certain the whistling Johnny primitive's going to get chilly; autumn's coming.
darius15 (285 posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:18 PM
Response to Original message
1. I agree that polls will shift in Obama's favour once people start realizing that third party candidates hurt McCain and that conventions and maybe debates will help Obama.
But the only states Barr will get 3 % of the vote (let alone 5) is Georgia and MAYBE South Carolina.
Alexander Donating Member (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:19 PM
Response to Original message
2. He really picked the perfect time to go on vacation, if you think about it.
Right before his VP choice and the Democratic Convention, where he'll get a huge bounce anyway.
And the worst polls show the race tied right now. I'd rather be in our position than McCain's, that's for sure.
anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
3. This is good. Obama tends to focus more when he isn't leading by much.
rockymountaindem (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:21 PM
Response to Original message
4. Why did he go on vacation?
I don't get it. McCain isn't going on vacation, so neither should Obama. Ceding the airwaves to the opposition for a week is not a good call.
Alexander Donating Member (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:21 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Maybe he's exhausted and needs a break?
He's only human.
Plus I imagine he needed a place to decide on his VP choice.
Hmmm. One suspects the Obamaite primitives would have a cow if John McCain went on vacation, insinuating that he's old and tires easily.
tblue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:30 PM
Response to Reply #5
14. And I doubt he was only sunbathing and drinking pina coladas.
I bet he was working his tail off. I'm just hoping he DID take some time to kick back and enjoy his lovely family.
Motown_Johnny (707 posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. He had a longer Primary... He figured the Olympics would have muted any news anyways.. He always visits his grandmother in the summer... He needed time to plan the end game
He deserved a break
But the numbers did tighten a bit
That didn't happen to be grandma he kicked under the bus, did it?
Kristi1696 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:24 PM
Response to Reply #4
11. That wasn't a vacation. That was a prolonged "See Where I Come From" photo-op.
zidzi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:23 PM
Response to Original message
6. I'm not frettin' it but then I don't sweat every little m$m manipulatin' poll, either.
fiziwig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:23 PM
Response to Original message
7. Lead shrunk?
With a poll margin of error around 3% a move of 3% is meaningless. It's still within the MOE.
geek tragedy (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:24 PM
Response to Reply #7
12. He dropped 9 points in the LA Times poll.
It's undeniable--he's trending down and McCain is trending up.
He had a PITIFUL summer.
darius15 (285 posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:31 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. The last LA Times Poll had Obama up 11. That was probably way off, as the highest lead Obama ever had over McCain after he clinched the nomination was 6-7 points. He is still up 2. He dropped 9 points because the last LA Times poll that had him up 11 was an "outlier"
geek tragedy (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:23 PM
Response to Original message
9. His lead didn't shrink. It's disappeared.
Behind in Colorado now, barely ahead in MUST WIN Minnesota.
He's going downhill, and fast. Had I known he would run this kind of general election campaign, I would have supported Hillary.
Motown_Johnny (707 posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:24 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. Nothing without 3rd party candidates is accurate.
darius15 (285 posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:35 PM
Response to Reply #9
17. Sigh....
Listen, the election is gonna tilt back and forth many times before November. We don't have to be so extreme.
Whenever Obama is doing well in the polls, many of us here are quick to say "Obama is gonna win big! No Way McCain will win!" and now when Obama and McCain are close, everyone is taking it to the other, negative extreme.
Kerry and Gore win Minnesota by 2 or 3 points. The fact Obama was doing so well there back in June & July was a testament to him. Now he has fallen back to where a generic Dem would be in Minnesota. Calm down. And about Colorado, don't forget that Obama is having the convention there, which will give him a higher bounce there than the rest of the country.
CitizenPatriot (399 posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:24 PM
Response to Original message
10. he still leads in electoral and remember when they "poll" they don't call people who don't have land lines. hello? the youth vote, the under 35 vote?
GOBAMA
tblue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-19-08 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #10
16. That's the only 'poll' that matters.
The rest is just the MSM trying to create a story and/or controversy. Otherwise, who would watch?
whistle, whistle, chirp, chirp, and it's not even dark yet.
