Don't Complain That the Polls Were Wrong
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-14/don-t-complain-that-the-polls-were-wrongOne big complaint about the latest U.S. election is that “the polls were wrong.†It reveals a complete misunderstanding of what polls -- and statistical forecasts in general -- are supposed to do.
Many people confuse forecasts with fortune-telling. A fortune teller seeks to predict the future with certainty -- an endeavor that I view with suspicion. Statisticians use available information to help us make better decisions when we can’t be sure what will happen in the future. This is essential.
Let’s use a sports analogy. Suppose a football coach has to decide whether to attempt a one-point or two-point conversion after a touchdown. He can’t know with certainty which approach will be successful. He can, however, know how successful they have been in different situations in the past. He can even ask a statistician to calculate probabilities based on a simulation of millions and millions of attempts. He would then combine that information with an assessment of his current situation to make an informed choice.
That is why I take polls with a grain of salt.
