Nevada shows why Nate Silver's approach is so wrong ...

[tuolumnejim]

I live in the great State of Nevada and I see literally 100 Trump stickers to every hildabeast sticker. The only sign I saw for her was taken down in Carson City down the street from the college, they had a bernie sign up before so my guess is they just couldn't support the hildabeast. 

Even my neighbors who are on assistance are die hard Trump supporters, they just hate clinton that much. 

We also went on vacation last week and drove down to Vegas then onto the Grand Canyon, the ONLY hildabeast sign I saw was "Hillary for Prison". It gave me a warm feeling all over. 

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028272728

Alhena (2,003 posts)

Nevada shows why Nate Silver's approach is so wrong ...

Silver has Nevada as a Trump-lean state based on polls. But Nevada political experts say that actual early voting info there is so overwhelmingly in favor of Dems that Trump has basically no chance there.

Silver relies way too much on polls, which is necessary early on, but when early voting actually starts sifting through that data is far more reliable.

Trump has little chance without Nevada.

[ChuckJ]

Alhena (2,003 posts)

Nevada shows why Nate Silver's approach is so wrong ...

Silver has Nevada as a Trump-lean state based on polls. But Nevada political experts say that actual early voting info there is so overwhelmingly in favor of Dems that Trump has basically no chance there.

Silver relies way too much on polls, which is necessary early on, but when early voting actually starts sifting through that data is far more reliable.

Trump has little chance without Nevada.

Just curious. It is my understanding that early votes are not tabulated and/or public until election day. Sifting through the data that is available before election day, in my mind, results in the sifter relying on guess work to reach a conclusion as to which candidate the voter voted for. I admit that if you know that of 10 early voters that 8 were registered as 'democrat' then it is a safe guess that the democrat candidate received those 8 votes; however, just because it is a 'safe' guess does not mean it is an accurate guess.

Am I incorrect?

[jukin]

My guess is that Trump takes Nevada by 4 or more points....same for Colorado.

[miskie]

Just curious. It is my understanding that early votes are not tabulated and/or public until election day. Sifting through the data that is available before election day, in my mind, results in the sifter relying on guess work to reach a conclusion as to which candidate the voter voted for. I admit that if you know that of 10 early voters that 8 were registered as 'democrat' then it is a safe guess that the democrat candidate received those 8 votes; however, just because it is a 'safe' guess does not mean it is an accurate guess.

Am I incorrect?

That's exactly how it works - All votes -early or absentee- are counted on election day and not before. Reporters are looking at the voter registration of those who have already cast votes and are making the assumption that everybody votes for the party to whom they are registered... Because it paints the picture they want to see, and writes the report they want read.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Any poll that contradicts the DUmmies and their narrative royally pisses them off.

[FunkyZero]

I live in the great State of Nevada and I see literally 100 Trump stickers to every hildabeast sticker. The only sign I saw for her was taken down in Carson City down the street from the college, they had a bernie sign up before so my guess is they just couldn't support the hildabeast. 

Even my neighbors who are on assistance are die hard Trump supporters, they just hate clinton that much. 

We also went on vacation last week and drove down to Vegas then onto the Grand Canyon, the ONLY hildabeast sign I saw was "Hillary for Prison". It gave me a warm feeling all over. 

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028272728

I walk about 6-8 miles per day, 5 in the morning and then usually a couple more in the evening... all throughout my neighborhood and border neighborhoods
It is amazing how it has transformed in the past 2-3 weeks. There is quite literally a sea of Trump/Pence signs. It's almost as if they sprouted from seed all at once. I don't know if some group hit our neighborhood 2 weeks ago distributing signs or what... they are everywhere in the front yards.
There is but one lonely Clinton sign just 2 houses down from me. I thought about buying a hillary sign to put next to it so it would have some company... na.

[I_B_Perky]

Any poll that contradicts the DUmmies and their narrative royally pisses them off.

I remember when Nate Silver was the gold standard in polling... according to the dump.  He is pretty good... I will give him that. This year is so far out of the normal realm though even Nate has said it is hard to get a handle on the race.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I remember when Nate Silver was the gold standard in polling... according to the dump.  He is pretty good... I will give him that. This year though is so far out of the normal realm though even Nate has said it is hard to get a handle on the race.

He has acknowledged that all along.  Unreliable and inconsistent polls by state make it very hard to predict a true outcome.

[I_B_Perky]

He has acknowledged that all along.  Unreliable and inconsistent polls by state make it very hard to predict a true outcome.

I read a story last night that he and the Huffpo editor got into it on twitter over his polling methods in a Huffpo editorial/story.  They called his methods wrong and he called them idiots.  Link was on drudge. Ain't there now.

Another liberal hero tossed under the dem bus.

[franksolich]

Another liberal hero tossed under the dem bus.

<<<wonders if the primitives know yet that just minutes ago, he gave Florida to Trump.

[DumbAss Tanker]

The early polling analysis so far is almost entirely dependent on voter registration alone.  However, there are plenty of registered Democrats who despise Hillary - some even like Trump, some intend to leave the President line blank, and some are going third-party or write-in.  The same is true on the GOP side, there are many who hate Trump with a purple passion and won't vote for him (Outside the National Review staff and DC, I'm not sure very many of them are actually voting for Hillary, but you never know).  I just don't think the way the early voting is being analyzed has a really solid foundation.  The Wicked Witch may win, or things could break for Trump, but I think most of the hot air and money wasted on it by the news channels is going to prove well-spent.

[I_B_Perky]

<<<wonders if the primitives know yet that just minutes ago, he gave Florida to Trump.

BWAHAHAHA!!!

I bet they will know shortly.    

Edited to add:

Not gonna happen. The dump is all agog tonite over the FBI saying they reviewed the emails on weiner's PC and there was nothing there. 

[Adam Wood]

Part of the tricky bit for Silver is that it's hard to quantify the illegal-alien-bused-in-from-TJ-to-vote voting bloc that the Democrats use in Clark County.