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Author Topic: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman  (Read 881 times)

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Offline CC27

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Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« on: July 13, 2016, 11:22:27 AM »
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MineralMan (85,778 posts)

Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now


Polling is all over the place right now, between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The polling companies are still trying to work out how to poll for this general election, really. The conventions haven't been held, people are not seriously considering their choices yet, and it's really impossible at this time to know how the campaigns that will start after the conventions will affect voter sentiment.

You can currently find a poll to support whatever conclusion that suits you. Go for it, if that's your thing, but realize that general election polling prior to the conventions is notoriously inaccurate. Once the nominees have been announced for real and once most people begin actually thinking about the election, the polls will settle down into a pattern that can be tracked.

For now, though, general election polling is pretty much just noise. The campaigns have yet to begin. People are still arguing about the primaries. Wait a bit. Then, the trends will begin to become more clear. For now, if you have a favorite candidate, which I assume is Hillary Clinton on this website, you can start making plans for the general election campaign and GOTV efforts. They'll be ramping up soon and there will be many opportunities for activism.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512252747

Time to put you in a home. Plus he is posting this because he is nervous the polls are swinging Trumps way so far.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2016, 11:24:44 AM by CC27 »
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Offline 98ZJUSMC

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Re: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2016, 01:02:56 PM »
Quote from: CC27 on July 13, 2016, 11:22:27 AM
Time to put you in a home. Plus he is posting this because he is nervous the polls are swinging Trumps way so far.

Exactly.  Despite the heroic efforts of the Democrats with by-lines.
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Offline Gina

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Re: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2016, 01:21:16 PM »
Why do they always say "polls are no good" when it's not in the dem favor?  :rotf:
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2016, 01:33:03 PM »
Quote from: Gina on July 13, 2016, 01:21:16 PM
Why do they always say "polls are no good" when it's not in the dem favor?  :rotf:

Because They Know Better!!! :whistling: ::) :whatever:
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2016, 05:20:42 PM »
Quote from: CC27 on July 13, 2016, 11:22:27 AM
Time to put you in a home. Plus he is posting this because he is nervous the polls are swinging Trumps way so far.

That's the important thing.  Poll numbers are largely garbage, for several reasons, but suffice to say they are lousy with sampling error and several varieties of bias, but the key thing is the trend direction from instance to instance with the same methodology.

Bottom line, the trend is not being Hitlery's friend.
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Offline 98ZJUSMC

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Re: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2016, 05:55:45 PM »
Quote from: Gina on July 13, 2016, 01:21:16 PM
Why do they always say "polls are no good" when it's not in the dem favor?  :rotf:
   :-)

Funny, that.  :shrug: 
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Liberal thinking is a two-legged stool and magical thinking is one of the legs, the other is a combination of self-loating and misanthropy.  To understand it, you would have to be able to sit on that stool while juggling two elephants, an anvil and a fragmentation grenade, sans pin.

"Accuse others of what you do." - Karl Marx

Offline 98ZJUSMC

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Re: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2016, 05:59:29 PM »
Quote from: DumbAss Tanker on July 13, 2016, 05:20:42 PM
That's the important thing.  Poll numbers are largely garbage, for several reasons, but suffice to say they are lousy with sampling error and several varieties of bias, but the key thing is the trend direction from instance to instance with the same methodology.

Bottom line, the trend is not being Hitlery's friend.

The last time I was phone polled, I hung up.  I kept repeating, question after question, "because that's a phu*king lie!"  They habitually include questions that skew you to the Democrats.

They probably pulled my number from their list ....   :-)
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Liberal thinking is a two-legged stool and magical thinking is one of the legs, the other is a combination of self-loating and misanthropy.  To understand it, you would have to be able to sit on that stool while juggling two elephants, an anvil and a fragmentation grenade, sans pin.

"Accuse others of what you do." - Karl Marx

Offline I_B_Perky

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Re: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2016, 06:32:22 PM »
I have to agree with the dummie on this one. Polls this far out from the election are completely worthless for a number of reasons.

Just my two cents.   :shrug:

Now if it would have showed that hillary was ahead the dummie would be crowing about it.  And it would have meant the exact same thing.  Worthless.
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Offline landofconfusion80

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Re: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2016, 08:14:12 PM »
Quote from: 98ZJUSMC on July 13, 2016, 05:59:29 PM
The last time I was phone polled, I hung up.  I kept repeating, question after question, "because that's a phu*king lie!"  They habitually include questions that skew you to the Democrats.

They probably pulled my number from their list ....   :-)
They like to hang up on you in their unbiased surveys when you say you're republican

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Offline Carl

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Re: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2016, 09:12:37 PM »
Given the dynamics of this election I doubt there will be any poll that is automatically reliable.
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Offline Karin

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Re: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2016, 06:54:02 AM »
I agree, Carl.  People lie to pollsters, too.  If you can get them to pick up their phone.  So many people just don't answer an unknown number, given how annoying spam calls are, and the fact that they cost you minutes. 
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Offline SVPete

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Re: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2016, 07:18:28 AM »
Quote from: I_B_Perky on July 13, 2016, 06:32:22 PM
I have to agree with the dummie on this one. Polls this far out from the election are completely worthless for a number of reasons.

Just my two cents.   :shrug:

Now if it would have showed that hillary was ahead the dummie would be crowing about it.  And it would have meant the exact same thing.  Worthless.

Your last sentence - like at least one other post - hits the nail on the head. DU-folk will crow about polls whose results they like, and ignore or denigrate (polls whose results they do not, including the one "poll" that actually matter, an election (If Trump wins, look for fraud claims to become a cottage industry on DU and many other "places").

I ignore opinion polls, even those whose results I like.
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Offline Carl

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Re: Polls Schmolls - Disregard Polls for Now. Mineralman
« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2016, 07:52:11 AM »
Quote from: Karin on July 14, 2016, 06:54:02 AM
I agree, Carl.  People lie to pollsters, too.  If you can get them to pick up their phone.  So many people just don't answer an unknown number, given how annoying spam calls are, and the fact that they cost you minutes.

There will be people voting on both sides that never have before so all bets are off.
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