Rasmussen Poll in Virginia; McCain and Obama dead even at 44-44

[Wretched Excess]

I haven't done a poll thread in a while, and I am sufficiently recovered from the responses to
my last poll thread to try it again.

Virginia is do or die for McCain.  If he loses VA, he has probably lost a number of other battleground
states, and is already toast.  on the downside, mccain is tied in a state that george george bush carried
54-46 in 2004, and 52-45 in 2000 (nader got 2%).  on the upside, The BarackStar! spent a load of
money in VA not too long ago during the dem primary, so he has had a great deal of recent exposure,
certainly a great deal more than mccain, and it's still tied.  and mccain has made up the 1 point that he
was behind in the last rassmussen poll.

also on the upside, obama's unfavorables are up a few points in the past two months (they seem quite
unusually high, in fact), which couldn't be the result of any negative advertising by hillary during the primaries,
since the VA primary was in february.

Election 2008: Virginia Presidential Election
Virginia: Obama, McCain Tied at 44% Each, But Nearly Half Have Unfavorable View of Democrat

The presidential race in Virginia is now dead even, with Barack Obama and John McCain each drawing 44% of the vote, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

If “leaners” are factored in, McCain leads by a statistically insignificant one percentage point 48% to 47%.

Despite the close race, one potentially worrisome fact for the Democratic candidate is that nearly one out of two Virginia voters (47%) now view him unfavorably. That’s up from 44% in May and June. The number who see him in a Very Unfavorable light stands at 31%.

McCain’s unfavorables, by contrast, have held steady at 36% for the past two months and only 13% have a Very Unfavorable view of him.

Just last month Obama edged ahead of McCain in Virginia for the first time 45% to 44%. Although that lead was statistically insignificant, the narrowness of the contest in a state that has gone Republican in every presidential contest since 1968 has buoyed Democratic hopes of adding it to their column this November.

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[DixieBelle]

There were tons of Hillary signs here.

I read somewhere else that some of the "Hillraisers" were meeting with McCain's team. I'll see if I can find that article.

[Wretched Excess]

There were tons of Hillary signs here.

I read somewhere else that some of the "Hillraisers" were meeting with McCain's team. I'll see if I can find that article.

you and jim were two of the people I was hoping would reply to this post . . . a "report from the scene", so to speak.

it must depend on the area that you live in . . . but as I recall, BHO got some staggering percentage of the vote in the primary  . . . like 65% or something.

[Lord Undies]

Should not the unstoppable and inevitable Hussein Obama be up at least 13 points eberywhere and wnywhere in any July poll, bogus or not? 

[Chris_]

I was in the theater watching the Glenn Beck: Unelectable show last night.  It was a live simulcast from Dallas.

If that audience is any indicator of Texas as a whole, John McCain has bigger problems to worry about than swing states like "moderate" Virginia.  He's got states like Texas - states that he's probably already counted as in the bag - that won't give the man the time of day, because they/we are absolutely sick of the Washington business as usual mindset he carries with him.  I think McCain as a candidate, is the single biggest reason that states like my own Colorado, and much of the rest of the inter-mountain west (AZ, NM, UT, NV, WY, MT and ID) are "in play" for the Democrats - I'm sure contrary to the rosy predictions of McCain's staffers.

What pisses us off the most, is that either McCain is blissfully unaware that we aren't falling in line behind him, or he just doesn't care.

[Jim]

There were tons of Hillary signs here.

I read somewhere else that some of the "Hillraisers" were meeting with McCain's team. I'll see if I can find that article.

you and jim were two of the people I was hoping would reply to this post . . . a "report from the scene", so to speak.

it must depend on the area that you live in . . . but as I recall, BHO got some staggering percentage of the vote in the primary  . . . like 65% or something.

Look at it this way, McC is doing next to nothing and is tied.

The primary numbers are meaningless on both sides.  BHO is opening offices in Danville, I realize this is kinda meaningless but its a rural conservative area that BHO will never take.  His hope is to eke a few more votes to help with the state totals and maybe tip the scale.  I do not believe that he can win here but that won't prevent conservatives form making damn sure as we always do for prez.

We may elect dem governors but do not mistake that for any significance nationally.

[Jim]

I was in the theater watching the Glenn Beck: Unelectable show last night.  It was a live simulcast from Dallas.

If that audience is any indicator of Texas as a whole, John McCain has bigger problems to worry about than swing states like "moderate" Virginia.  He's got states like Texas - states that he's probably already counted as in the bag - that won't give the man the time of day, because they/we are absolutely sick of the Washington business as usual mindset he carries with him.  I think McCain as a candidate, is the single biggest reason that states like my own Colorado, and much of the rest of the inter-mountain west (AZ, NM, UT, NV, WY, MT and ID) are "in play" for the Democrats - I'm sure contrary to the rosy predictions of McCain's staffers.

What pisses us off the most, is that either McCain is blissfully unaware that we aren't falling in line behind him, or he just doesn't care.

He has not begun to campaign.

[Chris_]

I was in the theater watching the Glenn Beck: Unelectable show last night.  It was a live simulcast from Dallas.

If that audience is any indicator of Texas as a whole, John McCain has bigger problems to worry about than swing states like "moderate" Virginia.  He's got states like Texas - states that he's probably already counted as in the bag - that won't give the man the time of day, because they/we are absolutely sick of the Washington business as usual mindset he carries with him.  I think McCain as a candidate, is the single biggest reason that states like my own Colorado, and much of the rest of the inter-mountain west (AZ, NM, UT, NV, WY, MT and ID) are "in play" for the Democrats - I'm sure contrary to the rosy predictions of McCain's staffers.

What pisses us off the most, is that either McCain is blissfully unaware that we aren't falling in line behind him, or he just doesn't care.

He has not begun to campaign.

How do you figure? 

He's out there promising the moon to the environmentalist whack-jobs in the form of the Economy crippling "Cap and Trade" legislation with his name on it.  He's promising "big things" from a McCain Administration to the ¡Si Se Pueda!  folks at la Raza in the form of amnesty and more stonewalling on the border fence.  He's denounced everyone with bona fide conservative credentials who's had the audacity to endorse him.

Assuming you're correct, he'd better START campaigning soon, considering his own first amendment stomping Campaign law makes it ILLEGAL for ads advocating him to be broadcast within 60 days of a General Election.  (That's the first week of September, for those of us who're victims of a public education.  Gives him less than 6 weeks to DO SOMETHING.) 

If he hasn't been campaigning since this whole election season started, lo damned near a year and a half ago, and he's only showed up for about 44% of the Senate business he's assigned to, what the **** has the Presumptuous Republican Nominee been doing with his *******ed time?

[Chris_]

I was in the theater watching the Glenn Beck: Unelectable show last night.  It was a live simulcast from Dallas.

If that audience is any indicator of Texas as a whole, John McCain has bigger problems to worry about than swing states like "moderate" Virginia.  He's got states like Texas - states that he's probably already counted as in the bag - that won't give the man the time of day, because they/we are absolutely sick of the Washington business as usual mindset he carries with him.  I think McCain as a candidate, is the single biggest reason that states like my own Colorado, and much of the rest of the inter-mountain west (AZ, NM, UT, NV, WY, MT and ID) are "in play" for the Democrats - I'm sure contrary to the rosy predictions of McCain's staffers.

What pisses us off the most, is that either McCain is blissfully unaware that we aren't falling in line behind him, or he just doesn't care.

He has not begun to campaign.

How do you figure? 

He's out there promising the moon to the environmentalist whack-jobs in the form of the Economy crippling "Cap and Trade" legislation with his name on it.  He's promising "big things" from a McCain Administration to the ¡Si Se Pueda!  folks at la Raza in the form of amnesty and more stonewalling on the border fence.  He's denounced everyone with bona fide conservative credentials who's had the audacity to endorse him.

Assuming you're correct, he'd better START campaigning soon, considering his own first amendment stomping Campaign law makes it ILLEGAL for ads advocating him to be broadcast within 60 days of a General Election.  (That's the first week of September, for those of us who're victims of a public education.  Gives him less than 6 weeks to DO SOMETHING.) 

If he hasn't been campaigning since this whole election season started, lo damned near a year and a half ago, and he's only showed up for about 44% of the Senate business he's assigned to, what the **** has the Presumptuous Republican Nominee been doing with his *******ed time?

I'm with you D6....I haven't seen such a dismal Republican campaign since Bob Dole (mentioned in another thread)........the similarities are amazing, and the outcome likely the same......

doc

[Jim]

I was in the theater watching the Glenn Beck: Unelectable show last night.  It was a live simulcast from Dallas.

If that audience is any indicator of Texas as a whole, John McCain has bigger problems to worry about than swing states like "moderate" Virginia.  He's got states like Texas - states that he's probably already counted as in the bag - that won't give the man the time of day, because they/we are absolutely sick of the Washington business as usual mindset he carries with him.  I think McCain as a candidate, is the single biggest reason that states like my own Colorado, and much of the rest of the inter-mountain west (AZ, NM, UT, NV, WY, MT and ID) are "in play" for the Democrats - I'm sure contrary to the rosy predictions of McCain's staffers.

What pisses us off the most, is that either McCain is blissfully unaware that we aren't falling in line behind him, or he just doesn't care.

He has not begun to campaign.

How do you figure? 

He's out there promising the moon to the environmentalist whack-jobs in the form of the Economy crippling "Cap and Trade" legislation with his name on it.  He's promising "big things" from a McCain Administration to the ¡Si Se Pueda!  folks at la Raza in the form of amnesty and more stonewalling on the border fence.  He's denounced everyone with bona fide conservative credentials who's had the audacity to endorse him.

Assuming you're correct, he'd better START campaigning soon, considering his own first amendment stomping Campaign law makes it ILLEGAL for ads advocating him to be broadcast within 60 days of a General Election.  (That's the first week of September, for those of us who're victims of a public education.  Gives him less than 6 weeks to DO SOMETHING.) 

If he hasn't been campaigning since this whole election season started, lo damned near a year and a half ago, and he's only showed up for about 44% of the Senate business he's assigned to, what the **** has the Presumptuous Republican Nominee been doing with his *******ed time?

Obviously he's been toodling around as they always do.  Point is he will not begin to campaign IN EARNEST till after the convention.  He will wait till then to apply the lazer to BHO demonstrating his weakness, inexperience and inability to do anything he says he'll do.

The public at large does not care about ANY presidential campaign till September at the earliest.  Hard for political junkies to believe this but its true.  Always has been.

BHO is spending loads of time and money on what will come to be seen as nothing.  He's talking to the same people over and over and its the same old crowd that came out to see Kerry, Gore, Clinton, Dukakis, Carter, and whoever was before that.

This vastly overlong campaign will suffer the same sensory overload that came with 2000 and 2004 only moreso.  Makes it VERY easy to kneecap the other side as they've been leaving SO DAMN MUCH ammunition around its not funny.

I am very glad McC has been saving his money while BHO is squandering his.

All this talk of change and the only real change is how much more cash has been pissed away by the dems on NOTHING.

[DixieBelle]

When the media does this http://michellemalkin.com/2008/07/17/msm-frowns-on-mccains-sense-of-humor-fawns-over-obamas-gym-workouts/

Is it any wonder people think McCain is out of touch/the wrong candidate/twiddling his thumbs??

Let's face it, the man has few friends in the media while Obama on the other hand....

[Jim]

When the media does this http://michellemalkin.com/2008/07/17/msm-frowns-on-mccains-sense-of-humor-fawns-over-obamas-gym-workouts/

Is it any wonder people think McCain is out of touch/the wrong candidate/twiddling his thumbs??

Let's face it, the man has few friends in the media while Obama on the other hand....

And I actually believe this will backfire.  Its so obvious even voters will get it.

[Tess Anderson]

No way I'm going to bash Juan as long as Barack Hussein Obama is still around. I don't think the former has run such a bad campaign at all - he's spent far less $$$ than Hussein, and he doesn't have 3000 press secretaries in the MSM. This:

http://www.johnmccain.com/videolanding/documentary.htm

ia an attrack ad that uses BHO's own words against him. And BHO isn't "competitive" in Virginia - look within those numbers, when the negatives are that high this late, it's hopeless.

[Wretched Excess]

The public at large does not care about ANY presidential campaign till September at the earliest.  Hard for political junkies to believe this but its true.  Always has been.

blasphemy, jim!

[Jim]

when the negatives are that high this late, it's hopeless.

yup.  if BHO is only managing even with all the time and money spent here, he's grasping at straws.  I almost believe he's doing it not for VA but other states like SC with larger black populations.

[Jim]

The public at large does not care about ANY presidential campaign till September at the earliest.  Hard for political junkies to believe this but its true.  Always has been.

blasphemy, jim!

yeah, I know.  but I see the missus every day and she wants nothing but for it all to go away and has felt that way for 18 months.

[Lacarnut]

This campaign is like a 15 round prize fight. The favorite (Obama) jumped off to an early lead. The challenger (McCain) has been getting in a few good jabs lately and has pulled even. The fight is still in the early stages. The favorite has blown his lead and is in a recouperative mode because of his amateurish campaign while the challenger is just chugging along and not making any mistakes. No need for McCain to show his best stuff. It's too early. After the convention, we will be getting into the later stages of the fight. As time goes on from here on out, McCain will gradually start winning more rounds and after the debate there will be a knockout. McCains victory will be huge at the polls on election day.

McCain and his advisors should stay away from the race issue at all cost. Let the Democraps and the media spin the race case. One thing that I think will piss off coservatives and Reagan Democ. is that if Armstrong W. & J.C. W. vote for Obama on the basis of his skin color, it will give some white folks a reason to do the same.   

[Jim]

This campaign is like a 15 round prize fight. The favorite (Obama) jumped off to an early lead. The challenger (McCain) has been getting in a few good jabs lately and has pulled even. The fight is still in the early stages. The favorite has blown his lead and is in a recouperative mode because of his amateurish campaign while the challenger is just chugging along and not making any mistakes. No need for McCain to show his best stuff. It's too early. After the convention, we will be getting into the later stages of the fight. As time goes on from here on out, McCain will gradually start winning more rounds and after the debate there will be a knockout. McCains victory will be huge at the polls on election day.

McCain and his advisors should stay away from the race issue at all cost. Let the Democraps and the media spin the race case. One thing that I think will piss off coservatives and Reagan Democ. is that if Armstrong W. & J.C. W. vote for Obama on the basis of his skin color, it will give some white folks a reason to do the same.   

almost total agreement.

I think its a 45 round fight that we're in about round 30 of and the kids has already used 95% of his best stuff while the wily opposition has reserved 90%.

I don't know what it will be but McC will pull out a line like "there he goes again" and this one will be as over as the Gipper's was.

[paladin0]

One thing that the primaries showed us is Obama generally over polled, i.e. the Bradley effect. Obama needs to be leading by 4-5+, as most of the ties or the 1-2 point Obama leads will go to McCain.

Paladin0

[Wretched Excess]

One thing that the primaries showed us is Obama generally over polled, i.e. the Bradley effect. Obama needs to be leading by 4-5+, as most of the ties or the 1-2 point Obama leads will go to McCain.

Paladin0

excellent point.  he consistently polls 3-5 points higher than he gets votes.

[Willow]

I was in the theater watching the Glenn Beck: Unelectable show last night.  It was a live simulcast from Dallas.

If that audience is any indicator of Texas as a whole, John McCain has bigger problems to worry about than swing states like "moderate" Virginia.  He's got states like Texas - states that he's probably already counted as in the bag - that won't give the man the time of day, because they/we are absolutely sick of the Washington business as usual mindset he carries with him.  I think McCain as a candidate, is the single biggest reason that states like my own Colorado, and much of the rest of the inter-mountain west (AZ, NM, UT, NV, WY, MT and ID) are "in play" for the Democrats - I'm sure contrary to the rosy predictions of McCain's staffers.

What pisses us off the most, is that either McCain is blissfully unaware that we aren't falling in line behind him, or he just doesn't care.

Yes to that, and I wonder if he is totally unaware that most Americans know he is going to sell us out in favor of amnesty when and if he takes office, or if he just dosen't care?

[Wretched Excess]

when the negatives are that high this late, it's hopeless.

yup.  if BHO is only managing even with all the time and money spent here, he's grasping at straws.  I almost believe he's doing it not for VA but other states like SC with larger black populations.

I think SC is safe.  georgia is mentioned as a potential "flip" state, which I highly doubt.  but my dad is even a bit concerned with mississippi, for heaven's sake.

[Chris_]

I was in the theater watching the Glenn Beck: Unelectable show last night.  It was a live simulcast from Dallas.

If that audience is any indicator of Texas as a whole, John McCain has bigger problems to worry about than swing states like "moderate" Virginia.  He's got states like Texas - states that he's probably already counted as in the bag - that won't give the man the time of day, because they/we are absolutely sick of the Washington business as usual mindset he carries with him.  I think McCain as a candidate, is the single biggest reason that states like my own Colorado, and much of the rest of the inter-mountain west (AZ, NM, UT, NV, WY, MT and ID) are "in play" for the Democrats - I'm sure contrary to the rosy predictions of McCain's staffers.

What pisses us off the most, is that either McCain is blissfully unaware that we aren't falling in line behind him, or he just doesn't care.

Yes to that, and I wonder if he is totally unaware that most Americans know he is going to sell us out in favor of amnesty when and if he takes office, or if he just dosen't care?

He doesn't care.

He threw Conservatives under the bus Day 1 of his campaign.  His opinion of us stupid folk:  It is me or Kodos.

[Tess Anderson]

Juan has reversed himself on drilling in ANWR.

when the negatives are that high this late, it's hopeless.

yup.  if BHO is only managing even with all the time and money spent here, he's grasping at straws.  I almost believe he's doing it not for VA but other states like SC with larger black populations.

I think SC is safe.  georgia is mentioned as a potential "flip" state, which I highly doubt.  but my dad is even a bit concerned with mississippi, for heaven's sake.

Yeah, but the thing is, few that are ever registered actually show up to vote. This liberal (?) in GA pretty well confirms your doubts:

http://www.ajc.com/opinion/content/shared-blogs/ajc/thinkingright/entries/2008/07/18/despite_hype_obama_wont_carry.html



 

[Jim]

when the negatives are that high this late, it's hopeless.

yup.  if BHO is only managing even with all the time and money spent here, he's grasping at straws.  I almost believe he's doing it not for VA but other states like SC with larger black populations.

I think SC is safe.  georgia is mentioned as a potential "flip" state, which I highly doubt.  but my dad is even a bit concerned with mississippi, for heaven's sake.

I think both are safe as well though the GOP will have to do it's part and not take it for granted.  As BHO has already shown distain for walkaround money, he could do rather more poorly than expected.  Thats a long standing expectation in the black community.