7/15 Election Model: Obama 420EV...2008 Election Fraud Scenario Analysis...Under

[dutch508]

Why wait until the election to claim election fraud?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3637167

Assuming that Obama will win 60% of the undecided vote, then based on the latest state polls, the Election Model projects that he will win 54.8% of the two-party vote with 420 electoral votes — if the election is fraud-free and held today. With 55% of the undecided voters, he will have 54.0% with 393 electoral votes. Since Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo simulation election trials, his electoral vote win probability is 100%.

Based on the latest 5 national polls average projection (including just-released NYT/CBS and ABC polls), he would win 53.92% of the popular vote.

One might ask “What are you smoking? Nothing is 100%”. Well, based on the results of 5000 Monte Carlo simulation trials, the win probability is 100%.
...
FULL REPORT: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.

I know I know, but wait for it!...

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.


The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
A massive voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.
Approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted.


Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom. But that’s to be expected. Although the media commissioned the exit polls which indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they don’t question the mathematically impossible Final Exit Poll which was forced to match a corrupt vote count. Bush won the corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote. Past is Prologue. It would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.

That’s why the Election Model now includes a fraud scenario analysis. Even assuming that 4% of total votes cast will be uncounted, McCain would need at least 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column to win. In 2004 approximately 3% of all votes cast were uncounted. Bush stole 8.0% of Kerry’s votes (analysis below) to obtain his 3.0 million vote “mandate”.

Zogby was correct in 2004 when he projected that Kerry would win. Unfortunately, Bush won a rigged Recorded vote. Kerry won the True vote, but like Three-Card Monte, what you see is not what you get. Election forecasters and complicit media pundits who projected a Bush win avoid discussing the overwhelming evidence that the election was stolen. On the contrary, a complicit media relentlessly promotes the fictional propaganda that Bush won TWO elections.

These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the projected vote share
Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the electoral vote
...
The bottom line is: ...

MORE HERE: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

2004 Election Model Review

On Election Day 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating.
The Final 2004 Election Model projected that Kerry would win 337 – 201 EV with 51.8%.

Preliminary State and National exit polls also indicated that Kerry won.

Bush was the official winner of the Recorded Vote by 50.7 – 48.3% with 286 EV.

And so the Final National Exit poll was 'forced' to match the fraudulent Recorded Vote.

Final state projections and national exit polls are shown here.
The model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national models.
In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.

The Monte Carlo simulation determined that he would win 337 electoral votes.

Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The final 5 national poll average projection was 51.8%.
The final 18 national poll average projection was 51.6%.
The Election Model projections were based on state and national Pre-election polls.
Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.
The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%.
Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.

Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average difference between unadjusted exit poll margin and recorded vote count margin.
It is more appropriate to call it Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0 – 47.0% (average of three measures).
              Unadjusted Exit Poll             Recorded Vote Count       EV     Kerry  Bush   Margin KEV     Kerry  Bush   Margin KEV          WPE/WPDWtdAv TOTAL   51.95  47.05  4.91   337     48.27  50.73  (2.46) 251           7.37 %
The state exit poll WPD:
exceeded 6% in 25 states for Bush and none for Kerry (equivalent to exceeding a 3% MoE)
exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.

was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN).

was less than 2% in just 1 Democratic state (OR), the only state which votes 100% by paper ballot.
The 1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by 48 – 51%.
All FINAL National Exit Polls are 'forced' to match the Recorded Vote.

The 'forcing' of the 2004 Exit Poll numbers resulted in IMPOSSIBLE demographics.


Either the state and national Pre-election and Exit Polls were wrong, or the Recorded Vote was fraudulent.


GO HERE TO RECOMMEND: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

 

Dover  (1000+ posts)      Thu Jul-17-08 08:35 PM
Response to Original message
3. I'm astounded anyone would believe the polls that have Obama & McCain neck and neck.
 A sure sign that 'something's up' once again.

In reality McCain might have 30%

[djones520]

On his upcoming overseas trip, Barack Obama will be met along the way by the anchors of the three network evening newscasts. About 200 other journalists have also asked to join Obama during his trip.

But Howard Kurtz of The Washington Post reports that John McCain has taken three foreign trips in the past four months — all unaccompanied by a single network anchor and with little fanfare.
The Tyndall Report, which monitors news coverage, says that since June the nightly newscasts on the three networks spent a combined 114 minutes covering Obama while devoting just 48 minutes to McCain.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,385425,00.html

So let me get this right...

The media is obviously in Obama's pocket.  Yet their lying about the numbers to help McCain win the elections?

DUmbshits.  Why don't you join the rest of us in this little place we call reality.

[Lord Undies]

I'm astounded anyone would believe a big eared half-white/half-black known Marxist one-term senator with the most liberal voting record ever, no real experience, a muslim name, a militant fist bumping Angela Davis act-alike for a wife, and absolutely no love for American has an ice cube's chance in hell of becoming president of the United States of America.

I'm astounded anyone would believe the Republican party is famous for voter fraud when the exact opposite is the known indisputable truth.  

I'm astounded anyone would believe it is the party which calls for and tries to pass voter laws to combat fraud is the party to be concerned about, instead of the party that throws up roadblocks in front of every attempt to institute common sense protections against voter fraud.  

I'm astounded anyone would believe normal people are stupid enough to be swayed to believe lies and distortions because of anything posted by the little goons at DemocratUnderground.com

[JohnnyReb]

Let me get this str8, Bush won the "recorded vote", Kerry won the "true vote" and all that leaves me wondering, who won the "dead vote"?

[jukin]

For a DUmbass there are only two choices:

1. WE WON!!111!!11!!

2. They cheated.

[ScubaGuy]

TIA lives.

This ass clown has been promoting his faulty spreadsheets since November 2004. 

Garbage in, Garbage out.