Are Republicans sure to lose in 2016?

[dutch508]

Yesterday it was posts about how it was probable that the dems would lose. Today it's post about how they can't lose.

Yorktown (237 posts) http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026435059

Are Republicans sure to lose in 2016?

There are not many Democratic candidates, and none seems to carry an unsurmountable bagage.

Not so for Republicans. The choice seems to be between:
- Bush IIIrd, and I think the dynastic effect would be a bit to rich in a modern democracy, or
- one of the other candidates using too extreme religiousness (some Ted Cruz quotes already are weird)

Any views of the inherent dynastic/extreme religiosity GOP weakness?

 

pscot (18,774 posts)
2. I think they're likely to win

  ALERT ALERT ALERT!!!

FoxNewsSucks (347 posts)
13. I don't know that I'd use the word "win", since that word implies fairness and legitimacy.

But I wouldn't be surprised at all if a filthy republicon somehow weasels its way into the White House.

 

geek tragedy (44,542 posts)
30. The key question for me is getting the Obama coalition out to vote in 2016. Will PoC vote in the same numbers as they did in 2012?  Will voter ID work at keeping them home?  Have they grown fatigued over a messy political system where progress is only seen in the rear view mirror?

it's all about the POC...

TM99 (2,022 posts)
7. It does not matter who the GOP runs they have the momentum to win at this point.

Only Democrats in denial would believe otherwise given the take over of the Senate and a stronger majority in the House by the GOP in 2014. Not to mention, they also took more governorships and state legislatures are now overwhelmingly in GOP control. 

MOLE MOLE MOLE!!!

geek tragedy (44,542 posts)
29. The worry is that blacks and Latinos don't turn out in the numbers they did for Obama. Clinton will capture a similar percentage of them, but will she get enough of them out to vote? Right now I see her having a better chance of doing that than O'Malley or Bernie Sanders. 

DemocratSinceBirth (50,619 posts)
31. I believe she will outperform President Obama slightly among whites and Latinos and underperform him slightly among African Americans.

 
if she's not in prison...

CK_John (7,624 posts)
16. I fear we have to go with the full wave of the GOP train wreak until 2024. The voters need to get the government they deserve.

bowens43 (15,265 posts)
37. Most likely they will win. That's the direction the country is going. we are a country of religious nut jobs and bigots. If a candidate yells about how much he loves jesus and how much he hates gays, liberals and Hispanics he will win. extreme religiousness a negative?? You got to be kidding. That alone may be enough to get a nut job in the whitehouse

Agnosticsherbet (4,290 posts)
59. From a historical POV, the Republicans have an advantage.

Since 1838, the Democratic party managed to elect another Democrat only twice after a Democrats served two terms, Van Buren succeeded Jackson and Franklin D. Roosevelt succeeded himself.

For whatever reason the people seem reluctant to give parties a third term, and that amounts to an advantage to Republicans.

So, no, I do not think Republicans are sure to lose.

They will nominate a candidate that we will be told appeals to the center, whether this is Bush or Walker is irrelevant. Extremists like Cruz have no real chance. Republicans like them, but the nominee is almost always someone the Republicans think appeals to the center.

 
There are alot of moles in that thread...

[obumazombie]

TM99...hmmm.
The Mole with a tribute to Agent 99 Barbara Feldon ?

[98ZJUSMC]

FoxNewsSucks (347 posts)
13. I don't know that I'd use the word "win", since that word implies fairness and legitimacy.

[dummie]Because all Rethuglikkkan Presidents since Eisenhower have cheated.  Included link to alternet.derp [/dummie]

But I wouldn't be surprised at all if a filthy republicon somehow weasels its way into the White House.

With Cruz, YOU lose.

CK_John (7,624 posts)
16. I fear we have to go with the full wave of the GOP train wreak until 2024. The voters need to get the government they deserve.

We have to somehow duct tape the one Preznit Shank McDivot has ruined.

[SVPete]

Responding neutrally:

* The D nominee is uncertain, with no credible front-runner;

* The R nominee is uncertain, with no credible front-runner;

* The MSM are a joker of uncertain value.

I don't see this question as answerable, not now, possibly not a year from now.

Was this supposed to be a rally-the-troops morale-booster? Or mole-ing.

[thundley4]

DemocratSinceBirth (50,619 posts)
31. I believe she will outperform President Obama slightly among whites and Latinos and underperform him slightly among African Americans.

The DUmmie is admitting that white democrats are racist, and more will vote for Clinton than voted for Obama and also saying that blacks are racists, too and unwilling to go and vote for a white person.

[obumazombie]

CK_John (7,624 posts)

16. I fear we have to go with the full wave of the GOP train wreak until 2024. The voters need to get the government they deserve.

Train wreak...a train wreck that wreaks havoc...train wreak.

[wasp69]

TM99 (2,022 posts)
7. It does not matter who the GOP runs they have the momentum to win at this point.

Only Democrats in denial would believe otherwise given the take over of the Senate and a stronger majority in the House by the GOP in 2014. Not to mention, they also took more governorships and state legislatures are now overwhelmingly in GOP control. 

Finally, one of you hopey-changey chode snorters sees the light.  Your mantras of demographics, center left tilt, 1%, revolution, et cetera mean exactly jack shit in the face of the sea change at the local levels where it really counts. 

This post, my fellow civilized citizens, is why I don't think for one second that giving up on the local victories to punish the national level RNC is a good idea. 

[jukin]

My gut tells me that the democrats win it all. They take back the senate for sure and will keep the presidency.  If they don't win the HOR it will be razor close.

Now this has nothing to do with the democrats but all to do with the way the GOP elite have shit on their base. After 38 years as a republican, I change my registration about a month ago. Romney and the GOPe managed to make almost 5 million conservatives stay home in 2012. They are working on 10 million now.

[BlueStateSaint]

I think it will be exactly the opposite.  I think that Obama will have ****ed up things in general so badly, that the moderates will see whoever the Dems put up--Hillary or Martin O'Malley or whoever they choose--as a continuation of the policies that he used to royally screw the USA.  I think that the Republicans keep the Senate by a razor-thin margin and keep the HOR, and win the Presidency.  The elections of 2018 will see the Dems putting up some 20-odd Senators for reelection, just as they had this time around.  If President Walker gets his razor-thin majority and repeals Obamacare, expect the economy to start to take off . . . and leave the Dems showing their collective asses in the 2018 midterms.

[Carl]

One week in politics is an eternity.

[landofconfusion80]

My gut tells me that the democrats win it all. They take back the senate for sure and will keep the presidency.  If they don't win the HOR it will be razor close.

Now this has nothing to do with the democrats but all to do with the way the GOP elite have shit on their base. After 38 years as a republican, I change my registration about a month ago. Romney and the GOPe managed to make almost 5 million conservatives stay home in 2012. They are working on 10 million now.

Sing it sister! Romney's nomination had me voting for Gary Johnson, the closest in line with true conservative values.  People voting for Romney were just continuing the problem.

[delilahmused]

My gut tells me that the democrats win it all. They take back the senate for sure and will keep the presidency.  If they don't win the HOR it will be razor close.

Now this has nothing to do with the democrats but all to do with the way the GOP elite have shit on their base. After 38 years as a republican, I change my registration about a month ago. Romney and the GOPe managed to make almost 5 million conservatives stay home in 2012. They are working on 10 million now.

That will only happen if the base allows them to (not THEIR base, we don't belong to them). It's OUR primary, not theirs. We're our own worst enemy, especially the one issue purists who demand absolute 100% on their pet issue. And no one makes us sit home. I wasn't happy with Romney but we effectively eliminated more conservative candidates bickering amongst ourselves and refusing to coalesce around a candidate who more closely aligned with conservative values.

Considering the disastrous direction the country was heading, and knowing it would only get worse, I chose to vote. My country is and was at stake. Considering everything that's happened and how hard it will be to undo the damange 0bama has done, at least I know I didn what I could as a citizen. All the RINO has to do is wait until we've knocked off most of our worthy candidates and then they have the money to take out the one or two who're left. We did it to ourselves. Reagan's 80/20 rule no longer applies.

However, I seriously doubt a RINO will be our candidate, if history is the judge and if we've learned our lesson from the last two primaries. We've swung way too far to the left and will most likely choose a president further to the right because we self correct. The majority of the country still hates 0bamacare (even democrats) and wants it repealed. The majority of the country doesn't like amnesty. And the majority of the country don't like how weak we've become on the world stage, the idea of Iran having nukes or that the middle east is on fire. As a democrat president would continue where 0bama left off.

Cindie

[Karin]

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #15)

Sun Mar 29, 2015, 10:19 PM

1StrongBlackMan (18,426 posts)
24. True ...

But we have the gop lunacy working in our favor!

Cruz?

Bush has a lot of baggage.

Walker won't stand up to scrutiny of his record.

Is that what he's counting on?  Nobody's been more vetted than Walker.  And his record is great. 

Jukin, I think you're wrong.  Do you realize how difficult it is for a party to stay in power beyond the eight years? 

It's an interesting thread over there.

[Gina]

Why will the dems lose? I thought the DUmp was touting everything Obama has done great for America?

[obumazombie]

Hitlery would be owebuma's 3rd term.

[Mary Ann]

My gut tells me that the democrats win it all. They take back the senate for sure and will keep the presidency.  If they don't win the HOR it will be razor close.

Now this has nothing to do with the democrats but all to do with the way the GOP elite have shit on their base. After 38 years as a republican, I change my registration about a month ago. Romney and the GOPe managed to make almost 5 million conservatives stay home in 2012. They are working on 10 million now.

And how's that working out for you?

• We have a tidal wave of undocumented Democrats pouring over the border.
  We have an historic "framework, which will most likely lead to WWIII--which will be nuclear.
  Jughead is ignoring the millions of people who turned out in droves to reject his agenda, and instead announced that he has heard the voices of those who couldn't be bothered to get off their azzes to vote.
  Lowest ever percentage of people participating in the job market.
  Highest ever percentage of deadbeats on Food Stamps.
  Obamacare (which Romney promised to repeal on Day One.
  Hundreds of judges appointed who will prolong the agony of the Obama agenda for decades.
  Etc., etc., etc.

Romney was no Reagan, for sure, but he would have been a great administrator, and he would have slowed the decline.

Obama thanks you for sitting out 2012.
:-(

[Ptarmigan]

I think it will be exactly the opposite.  I think that Obama will have ****ed up things in general so badly, that the moderates will see whoever the Dems put up--Hillary or Martin O'Malley or whoever they choose--as a continuation of the policies that he used to royally screw the USA.  I think that the Republicans keep the Senate by a razor-thin margin and keep the HOR, and win the Presidency.  The elections of 2018 will see the Dems putting up some 20-odd Senators for reelection, just as they had this time around.  If President Walker gets his razor-thin majority and repeals Obamacare, expect the economy to start to take off . . . and leave the Dems showing their collective asses in the 2018 midterms.

I see Martin O'Malley as  Democrat nomination over Hillary Clinton. Even Jim Webb has a better chance than Hillary Clinton. I still think a unknown could be nominated like in 2008 with Barack Obama.

[Big Dog]

And how's that working out for you?

• We have a tidal wave of undocumented Democrats pouring over the border.
  We have an historic "framework, which will most likely lead to WWIII--which will be nuclear.
  Jughead is ignoring the millions of people who turned out in droves to reject his agenda, and instead announced that he has heard the voices of those who couldn't be bothered to get off their azzes to vote.
  Lowest ever percentage of people participating in the job market.
  Highest ever percentage of deadbeats on Food Stamps.
  Obamacare (which Romney promised to repeal on Day One.
  Hundreds of judges appointed who will prolong the agony of the Obama agenda for decades.
  Etc., etc., etc.

Romney was no Reagan, for sure, but he would have been a great administrator, and he would have slowed the decline.

Obama thanks you for sitting out 2012.
:-(

Slowing the decline is like reducing the deficit. It's driving off the same cliff at 75 mph instead of 100 mph. Romney's history as MA's governor, the best indicator of his potential performance as President, didn't inspire confidence that he would stop the runaway jalopy.

Graphic representation of a Romney presidency. Note the good hair.

And in the debates, he let himself get buffaloed by Obama and Candy Crowley. If those two could trip him up, the world's heavy hitters would have knocked him down and taken his lunch money.

Memo to Republican Party: Stop pretending to be the party of smaller government, then nominating soft-bellied big government progressives- or be prepared for President (insert any Dim name here).

[Mary Ann]

Slowing the decline is like reducing the deficit. It's driving off the same cliff at 75 mph instead of 100 mph. Romney's history as MA's governor, the best indicator of his potential performance as President, didn't inspire confidence that he would stop the runaway jalopy.

Graphic representation of a Romney presidency. Note the good hair.

And in the debates, he let himself get buffaloed by Obama and Candy Crowley. Who would have thought that the debate moderator would have colluded with one of the candidates to throw the debate. I saw it, and I was appalled.If those two could trip him up, the world's heavy hitters would have knocked him down and taken his lunch money.Kind of like what the mullahs did with Jughead? Romney would have done no worse. I can pretty much guarantee that if Iran had pulled some of this crap with Romney--like attacking a mock-up of an American ship, or declaring that wiping Israel off the map was non-negotiable, the "negotiations" would have been over in that moment.

Memo to Republican Party: Stop pretending to be the party of smaller government, then nominating soft-bellied big government progressives- or be prepared for President (insert any Dim name here).

My candidate of choice right now is Scott Walker, but I will vote for whoever the Republican nominee is, including Chris Christie. There is too much at stake to allow another four or (shudder) eight years of out-of-control socialism and Alinsky tactics.

[obumazombie]

^Well said, and very persuasive.

[landofconfusion80]

My candidate of choice right now is Scott Walker, but I will vote for whoever the Republican nominee is, including Chris Christie. There is too much at stake to allow another four or (shudder) eight years of out-of-control socialism and Alinsky tactics.

To vote for any of the above is incredibly short sighted.  if somebody is nominated that doesn't share and plan to implement small government policies that I believe in, then they've already lost my vote long before election day.  Unfortunately, that happened in the last election.

[jukin]

First, I voted for anybody but King Barky the Liar of Fecal Touch.

Second, would a more conservative candidate or...OR just one that would attack Obama like ROmney did in the primaries have won? Yes I think so.

Third, 2014 was a very low turnout election and those that turned out overwhelmingly voted to STOP OBAMA.

Fourth,  The GOPe gave everything to Obama that he wanted and then some.

I'm not a battered wife. I leave. **** the GOP, they are dead to me after the Cochran thing of reaching out to black donks with racism. Then, THEN they give 105% of what the democrats want. Please point out the difference that "the OMG if we get the senate things will so change" of McTurtle versus Reid? Just one? It sure ain't putting another straight up black racist as AG.  That is sailing through.  Oh Maybe it's illegal amnesty? NOPE. Wait I know having individual funding bills and not omnibus spending bills? NO. Not one damn thing has changed. NOT ONE.

I'll vote but my vote means jack shit in the primaries. Donations to the RNC dried up in 2012. Went to candidates that the RNC works hard to stop.

Again and in the strongest of terms **** THE GOP!

[Mary Ann]

To vote for any of the above is incredibly short sighted.  if somebody is nominated that doesn't share and plan to implement small government policies that I believe in, then they've already lost my vote long before election day.  Unfortunately, that happened in the last election.

I know a guy--an outspoken staunchly pro-life conservative--who sat out the 2008 election. Wouldn't vote for McCain because he supported stem cell research. The guy felt he was responsible to God for his vote, and it had to be, in his own words, "all or nothing." So, he voted for nothing, and felt sanctimonious and self-righteous about it.

Meanwhile, on the other side, we had a guy who voted "present" for his entire time in the Illinois legislature--until he felt the right to unfettered abortion was on the line. He even voted for infanticide (!!!!!) because he felt the bill in question posed a threat to Roe v. Wade.

So, I did what I could to stop the Obama agenda. And the guy I knew didn't. His non-vote (and the millions of others who also didn't vote) are responsible for a whole lot of crap that isn't on MY conscience.

That guy saw the light and didn't sit out 2012. Too bad so many others didn't.

[Mary Ann]

First, I voted for anybody but King Barky the Liar of Fecal Touch.

Second, would a more conservative candidate or...OR just one that would attack Obama like ROmney did in the primaries have won? Yes I think so.

Third, 2014 was a very low turnout election and those that turned out overwhelmingly voted to STOP OBAMA.

Fourth,  The GOPe gave everything to Obama that he wanted and then some.

I'm not a battered wife. I leave. **** the GOP, they are dead to me after the Cochran thing of reaching out to black donks with racism. Then, THEN they give 105% of what the democrats want. Please point out the difference that "the OMG if we get the senate things will so change" of McTurtle versus Reid? Just one? It sure ain't putting another straight up black racist as AG.  That is sailing through.  Oh Maybe it's illegal amnesty? NOPE. Wait I know having individual funding bills and not omnibus spending bills? NO. Not one damn thing has changed. NOT ONE.

I'll vote but my vote means jack shit in the primaries. Donations to the RNC dried up in 2012. Went to candidates that the RNC works hard to stop.

Again and in the strongest of terms **** THE GOP!

I agree with you. I am deeply, deeply disappointed in McConnell.

However, there were a few good things that came out of the 2014 election:

Election night on DU. I have never had as much fun on that board as I did that night.

Reading that the Dems went to their customary meeting room for lunch that first day after the GOP took over and got the shock of their lives when they realized it was a privilege reserved for the majority party.

The Senate has moved bills forward that have forced Jughead to openly defy the electorate, which Reid protected him from.

It gave a huge number of young conservative a head start on long political careers. As their aging "bench" dwindles in number and gets more and more wrinkly and haggard looking, we have vibrant, energetic people who will be able to relate to a younger electorate.[/li][/list]

[obumazombie]

I know a guy--an outspoken staunchly pro-life conservative--who sat out the 2008 election. Wouldn't vote for McCain because he supported stem cell research. The guy felt he was responsible to God for his vote, and it had to be, in his own words, "all or nothing." So, he voted for nothing, and felt sanctimonious and self-righteous about it.

Meanwhile, on the other side, we had a guy who voted "present" for his entire time in the Illinois legislature--until he felt the right to unfettered abortion was on the line. He even voted for infanticide (!!!!!) because he felt the bill in question posed a threat to Roe v. Wade.

So, I did what I could to stop the Obama agenda. And the guy I knew didn't. His non-vote (and the millions of others who also didn't vote) are responsible for a whole lot of crap that isn't on MY conscience.

That guy saw the light and didn't sit out 2012. Too bad so many others didn't.

I love that.
I can safely declare that...the post of the day !