South Dakota, Montana primaries today

[Miss Mia]

he gave rock star like rallies in states that hillary kicked his ass in during the primaries, so maybe we (I ) shouldn't put too much stock in the rapture that is occurring in MN right now.

California, Texas, Florida, heck, the entire southwest.  And maybe New York.  hussein is going to win without those states?

California?  New York?  He'll definitely win those.  Florida, I think McCain will win it, esp if he put Crist as his VP. 

Texas is more purple with Obama running right now.  He won't win it, but Texas is turning blue.

texas is NOT turning blue.   florida is all but out of BHO's reach.  someone convinced me today that CA competitive. 

It is WE.  Not this time around, but I wouldn't be surprised if in 4 years it went blue.  The urban areas are outweighing the rural voters.

posh.  bob dole even beat bill clinton in 96.  bush polled 60% in 2000 and 2004 . . . hell, a dem hasn't won TX since 1976;  carter beat ford with 51% of the vote.

I'm not saying Obama will win Texas.  It will be closer though than it was Bush vs Kerry.  There's more hispanics, urban areas are growing.  It's not as red as it was, it's more of a pink now.

[Wretched Excess]

he gave rock star like rallies in states that hillary kicked his ass in during the primaries, so maybe we (I ) shouldn't put too much stock in the rapture that is occurring in MN right now.

California, Texas, Florida, heck, the entire southwest.  And maybe New York.  hussein is going to win without those states?

California?  New York?  He'll definitely win those.  Florida, I think McCain will win it, esp if he put Crist as his VP. 

Texas is more purple with Obama running right now.  He won't win it, but Texas is turning blue.

texas is NOT turning blue.   florida is all but out of BHO's reach.  someone convinced me today that CA competitive. 

It is WE.  Not this time around, but I wouldn't be surprised if in 4 years it went blue.  The urban areas are outweighing the rural voters.

posh.  bob dole even beat bill clinton in 96.  bush polled 60% in 2000 and 2004 . . . hell, a dem hasn't won TX since 1976;  carter beat ford with 51% of the vote.

I'm not saying Obama will win Texas.  It will be closer though than it was Bush vs Kerry.  There's more hispanics, urban areas are growing.  It's not as red as it was, it's more of a pink now.

do your fellow texans know that you are calling their state "pink" on the worldwide innerwebs?

[NHSparky]

You're forgetting one thing, Mia--Hispanics and blacks do NOT get along.  Hillary garnered more of the Hispanic vote by far than did Barackstar! did.

Polls, schmolls.  Hillary did herself in, and now Obama will do himself in, if Michelle Obama doesn't do it first.

[Miss Mia]

do your fellow texans know that you are calling their state "pink" on the worldwide innerwebs?

LOL

You're forgetting one thing, Mia--Hispanics and blacks do NOT get along.  Hillary garnered more of the Hispanic vote by far than did Barackstar! did.

Polls, schmolls.  Hillary did herself in, and now Obama will do himself in, if Michelle Obama doesn't do it first.

That's why having someone like Richardson on the ticket is helpful. 

[Wretched Excess]

You're forgetting one thing, Mia--Hispanics and blacks do NOT get along.  Hillary garnered more of the Hispanic vote by far than did Barackstar! did.

Polls, schmolls.  Hillary did herself in, and now Obama will do himself in, if Michelle Obama doesn't do it first.

we knocked this exact subject around in this forum this afternoon.  I forget where;  it's in one of today's threads.

[Wretched Excess]

do your fellow texans know that you are calling their state "pink" on the worldwide innerwebs?

LOL

You're forgetting one thing, Mia--Hispanics and blacks do NOT get along.  Hillary garnered more of the Hispanic vote by far than did Barackstar! did.

Polls, schmolls.  Hillary did herself in, and now Obama will do himself in, if Michelle Obama doesn't do it first.

That's why having someone like Richardson on the ticket is helpful. 

intriguing choice.  he is a flop at the polls, but who needs star power with The BarackStar! on the ticket?  but could also provide the appearance of foreign policy experience, or any kind of experience at all, for that matter.

[Miss Mia]

intriguing choice.  he is a flop at the polls, but who needs star power with The BarackStar! on the ticket?  but could also provide the appearance of foreign policy experience, or any kind of experience at all, for that matter.

Yes, that's exactly what Richardson would bring to the ticket. 

[Wretched Excess]

intriguing choice.  he is a flop at the polls, but who needs star power with The BarackStar! on the ticket?  but could also provide the appearance of foreign policy experience, or any kind of experience at all, for that matter.

Yes, that's exactly what Richardson would bring to the ticket. 

he has an impressive resume, and would probably deliver NM.  I think he is as empty a suit as you can find in american politics today (and that really is saying something), but you make a lot of sense.

[Miss Mia]

intriguing choice.  he is a flop at the polls, but who needs star power with The BarackStar! on the ticket?  but could also provide the appearance of foreign policy experience, or any kind of experience at all, for that matter.

Yes, that's exactly what Richardson would bring to the ticket. 

he has an impressive resume, and would probably deliver NM.  I think he is as empty a suit as you can find in american politics today (and that really is saying something), but you make a lot of sense.

Neither McCain nor Obama can really chose another senator for the ticket.  They both have to have someone either a governor or other "executive" experience.

I don't pay much attention to New Mexico, so I don't know if Richardson is popular or not, but I don't believe I've heard anything negative about him. 

[Wretched Excess]

intriguing choice.  he is a flop at the polls, but who needs star power with The BarackStar! on the ticket?  but could also provide the appearance of foreign policy experience, or any kind of experience at all, for that matter.

Yes, that's exactly what Richardson would bring to the ticket. 

he has an impressive resume, and would probably deliver NM.  I think he is as empty a suit as you can find in american politics today (and that really is saying something), but you make a lot of sense.

Neither McCain nor Obama can really chose another senator for the ticket.  They both have to have someone either a governor or other "executive" experience.

I don't pay much attention to New Mexico, so I don't know if Richardson is popular or not, but I don't believe I've heard anything negative about him. 

NM is considered a battleground state, and any governor should be able to deliver his home state.  unlike a certain metrosexual senator from hair county, NC, back in 2004.  actually, the more I think about it, the more richardson makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

[Miss Mia]

NM is considered a battleground state, and any governor should be able to deliver his home state.  unlike a certain metrosexual senator from hair county, NC, back in 2004.  actually, the more I think about it, the more richardson makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

I think Richardson would be a very smart move as VP.  I'm also leaning towards McCain picking Crist.  I think that would solidify Florida for him. 

Ahh, who knows really?  It's gonna be a fun 5 months till November though.   

[Wretched Excess]

NM is considered a battleground state, and any governor should be able to deliver his home state.  unlike a certain metrosexual senator from hair county, NC, back in 2004.  actually, the more I think about it, the more richardson makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

I think Richardson would be a very smart move as VP.  I'm also leaning towards McCain picking Crist.  I think that would solidify Florida for him. 

Ahh, who knows really?  It's gonna be a fun 5 months till November though.   

I honestly hadn't thought through what a great running mate richardson would be for obama until you mentioned it.  HOWEVER, we've talked about crist;  there is no way mccain picks him.  the base would go insane.  I think florida is already safely republican in this election cycle.

[Miss Mia]

NM is considered a battleground state, and any governor should be able to deliver his home state.  unlike a certain metrosexual senator from hair county, NC, back in 2004.  actually, the more I think about it, the more richardson makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

I think Richardson would be a very smart move as VP.  I'm also leaning towards McCain picking Crist.  I think that would solidify Florida for him. 

Ahh, who knows really?  It's gonna be a fun 5 months till November though.   

I honestly hadn't thought through what a great running mate richardson would be for obama until you mentioned it.  HOWEVER, we've talked about crist;  there is no way mccain picks him.  the base would go insane.  I think florida is already safely republican in this election cycle.

Hum, I hadn't thought about the base reaction to Crist.  I'll have to ponder this a little more then. 

BTW, I like the After Hours on MSNBC with the jazz band.  Plus, I like Dan Abrams. 

[Wretched Excess]

NM is considered a battleground state, and any governor should be able to deliver his home state.  unlike a certain metrosexual senator from hair county, NC, back in 2004.  actually, the more I think about it, the more richardson makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

I think Richardson would be a very smart move as VP.  I'm also leaning towards McCain picking Crist.  I think that would solidify Florida for him. 

Ahh, who knows really?  It's gonna be a fun 5 months till November though.   

I honestly hadn't thought through what a great running mate richardson would be for obama until you mentioned it.  HOWEVER, we've talked about crist;  there is no way mccain picks him.  the base would go insane.  I think florida is already safely republican in this election cycle.

Hum, I hadn't thought about the base reaction to Crist.  I'll have to ponder this a little more then. 

BTW, I like the After Hours on MSNBC with the jazz band.  Plus, I like Dan Abrams. 

I watch their morning show, with joe scarborough.  he used to be a republican.  now he's whatever mika brzezinski wants him to be.  and I will watch chris matthews' show not that the general is cranking up, just to know what the opposition is up to.

[Miss Mia]

NM is considered a battleground state, and any governor should be able to deliver his home state.  unlike a certain metrosexual senator from hair county, NC, back in 2004.  actually, the more I think about it, the more richardson makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

I think Richardson would be a very smart move as VP.  I'm also leaning towards McCain picking Crist.  I think that would solidify Florida for him. 

Ahh, who knows really?  It's gonna be a fun 5 months till November though.   

I honestly hadn't thought through what a great running mate richardson would be for obama until you mentioned it.  HOWEVER, we've talked about crist;  there is no way mccain picks him.  the base would go insane.  I think florida is already safely republican in this election cycle.

Hum, I hadn't thought about the base reaction to Crist.  I'll have to ponder this a little more then. 

BTW, I like the After Hours on MSNBC with the jazz band.  Plus, I like Dan Abrams. 

I watch their morning show, with joe scarborough.  he used to be a republican.  now he's whatever mika brzezinski wants him to be.  and I will watch chris matthews' show not that the general is cranking up, just to know what the opposition is up to.

I don't really like Matthew's.  He's too...blubbery.   

I watch Morning Joe too.  Well, after I get the local weather & traffic, I switch it over to Morning Joe. 

[Wretched Excess]

NM is considered a battleground state, and any governor should be able to deliver his home state.  unlike a certain metrosexual senator from hair county, NC, back in 2004.  actually, the more I think about it, the more richardson makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

I think Richardson would be a very smart move as VP.  I'm also leaning towards McCain picking Crist.  I think that would solidify Florida for him. 

Ahh, who knows really?  It's gonna be a fun 5 months till November though.   

I honestly hadn't thought through what a great running mate richardson would be for obama until you mentioned it.  HOWEVER, we've talked about crist;  there is no way mccain picks him.  the base would go insane.  I think florida is already safely republican in this election cycle.

Hum, I hadn't thought about the base reaction to Crist.  I'll have to ponder this a little more then. 

BTW, I like the After Hours on MSNBC with the jazz band.  Plus, I like Dan Abrams. 

I watch their morning show, with joe scarborough.  he used to be a republican.  now he's whatever mika brzezinski wants him to be.  and I will watch chris matthews' show not that the general is cranking up, just to know what the opposition is up to.

I don't really like Matthew's.  He's too...blubbery.   

I watch Morning Joe too.  Well, after I get the local weather & traffic, I switch it over to Morning Joe. 

that show is ALL politics.  every minute.  it's like crack for political junkies.  fox and friends is just teh ghey.  I gave up on it a long time ago.

[Chris_]

NM is considered a battleground state, and any governor should be able to deliver his home state.  unlike a certain metrosexual senator from hair county, NC, back in 2004.  actually, the more I think about it, the more richardson makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

I think Richardson would be a very smart move as VP.  I'm also leaning towards McCain picking Crist.  I think that would solidify Florida for him. 

Ahh, who knows really?  It's gonna be a fun 5 months till November though.   :-)

I honestly hadn't thought through what a great running mate richardson would be for obama until you mentioned it.  HOWEVER, we've talked about crist;  there is no way mccain picks him.  the base would go insane.  I think florida is already safely republican in this election cycle.

Hum, I hadn't thought about the base reaction to Crist.  I'll have to ponder this a little more then.  :)

BTW, I like the After Hours on MSNBC with the jazz band.  Plus, I like Dan Abrams. 

I watch their morning show, with joe scarborough.  he used to be a republican.  now he's whatever mika brzezinski wants him to be.  and I will watch chris matthews' show not that the general is cranking up, just to know what the opposition is up to.

I don't really like Matthew's.  He's too...blubbery.   

I watch Morning Joe too.  Well, after I get the local weather & traffic, I switch it over to Morning Joe. 

that show is ALL politics.  every minute.  it's like crack for political junkies.  fox and friends is just teh ghey.  I gave up on it a long time ago.

As long as Gretchen keeps her skirts short, it will NOT be a ghey show by any means:

[franksolich]

For the record, every single Democrat candidate for the presidency is on the ballot in South Dakota, even if they dropped out.

It'll be interesting, the residual vote.

Joseph Biden
Christopher Dodd
John Edwards
Michael Gravel
Dennis Kucinich
William Richardson

in addition:

Hillary Clinton
Barry "Goldwater" Obama

Frank, I don't know where you heard that, but it wasn't true, at least not when I voted. The only two on the ballot were Clinton and Obama, period.

I was using America On-Line for my source when I posted that.

Then some time later, maybe half an hour later, there was discombulation as the site was amended; I was hoping it was for some results, but no, it was to change something else.

When it settled down, the South Dakota page showed just the candidates you mentioned, all the others having been deleted.

After that, I waited and waited for results, but nothing, and then the neighbor came over as he wanted to change the oil in a motor vehicle, and so I gave up trying to track the results, as nothing was coming in.

Apparently the vote reports were really late and really slow last night?

[Wretched Excess]

NM is considered a battleground state, and any governor should be able to deliver his home state.  unlike a certain metrosexual senator from hair county, NC, back in 2004.  actually, the more I think about it, the more richardson makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

I think Richardson would be a very smart move as VP.  I'm also leaning towards McCain picking Crist.  I think that would solidify Florida for him. 

Ahh, who knows really?  It's gonna be a fun 5 months till November though.   

dick morris echoed your exact thoughts on richardson on the o'reilly show tonight.  and I mean point by point. it was eerie.

[Miss Mia]

NM is considered a battleground state, and any governor should be able to deliver his home state.  unlike a certain metrosexual senator from hair county, NC, back in 2004.  actually, the more I think about it, the more richardson makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

I think Richardson would be a very smart move as VP.  I'm also leaning towards McCain picking Crist.  I think that would solidify Florida for him. 

Ahh, who knows really?  It's gonna be a fun 5 months till November though.   

dick morris echoed your exact thoughts on richardson on the o'reilly show tonight.  and I mean point by point. it was eerie.

Oh, tee hee.  LOL  I should start emailing him my political thoughts so I'd at least get credit.

[Wretched Excess]

NM is considered a battleground state, and any governor should be able to deliver his home state.  unlike a certain metrosexual senator from hair county, NC, back in 2004.  actually, the more I think about it, the more richardson makes a hell of a lot of sense. 

I think Richardson would be a very smart move as VP.  I'm also leaning towards McCain picking Crist.  I think that would solidify Florida for him. 

Ahh, who knows really?  It's gonna be a fun 5 months till November though.   

dick morris echoed your exact thoughts on richardson on the o'reilly show tonight.  and I mean point by point. it was eerie.

Oh, tee hee.  LOL  I should start emailing him my political thoughts so I'd at least get credit.

yeah, I thought you were getting the shaft as I was listening to him, too.

[Miss Mia]

yeah, I thought you were getting the shaft as I was listening to him, too.

Here's a current Gallup on race (Obama vs McCain).  Obama's doing well with hispanics so far.

Race

It's no secret that Obama owes his nomination in large part to overwhelming support among blacks, and that high level of support will likely be evident in the general election. Roughly 9 in 10 blacks say they would vote for Obama if the election were held today, while McCain's support among blacks is in the low single digits. Blacks are typically a strong Democratic constituency, so the impact of the first black presidential candidate on a major-party ticket may be more evident in terms of motivating high black turnout than in overwhelming support for the Democrat.

Obama did not fare well against Hillary Clinton among Hispanics in the 2008 primaries, but the early indications are that he will do well among this increasingly Democratic group in the general election. The May data show Obama with a 62% to 29% advantage over McCain among Hispanics.

McCain currently maintains a strong advantage over Obama among non-Hispanic white voters, 53% to 38%.





link

[Wretched Excess]

yeah, I thought you were getting the shaft as I was listening to him, too.

Here's a current Gallup on race (Obama vs McCain).  Obama's doing well with hispanics so far.

Race

It's no secret that Obama owes his nomination in large part to overwhelming support among blacks, and that high level of support will likely be evident in the general election. Roughly 9 in 10 blacks say they would vote for Obama if the election were held today, while McCain's support among blacks is in the low single digits. Blacks are typically a strong Democratic constituency, so the impact of the first black presidential candidate on a major-party ticket may be more evident in terms of motivating high black turnout than in overwhelming support for the Democrat.

Obama did not fare well against Hillary Clinton among Hispanics in the 2008 primaries, but the early indications are that he will do well among this increasingly Democratic group in the general election. The May data show Obama with a 62% to 29% advantage over McCain among Hispanics.

McCain currently maintains a strong advantage over Obama among non-Hispanic white voters, 53% to 38%.





link

I flatly do not believe 62-29.  I just don't.  GWB carried 45% of the hispanic vote in 2004, and while a lot of that may have come from his home state of texas, there is no way in hell that mccain, who's position on immigration is even softer that bush's, loses that much support.  and many of these results fly in the face of this pew research poll (.pdf) in the demographic groups where you can make draw some reasonable parallels.

no, I am not playing the "my poll rocks, your poll sucks" game , but I do think that the only valaue that national polls have at this point is to identify trends, not precise levels of public support.  and we just don't have enough data to identify trends yet.  we've only had candidates for a couple of days.

[Miss Mia]

yeah, I thought you were getting the shaft as I was listening to him, too.

Here's a current Gallup on race (Obama vs McCain).  Obama's doing well with hispanics so far.

Race

It's no secret that Obama owes his nomination in large part to overwhelming support among blacks, and that high level of support will likely be evident in the general election. Roughly 9 in 10 blacks say they would vote for Obama if the election were held today, while McCain's support among blacks is in the low single digits. Blacks are typically a strong Democratic constituency, so the impact of the first black presidential candidate on a major-party ticket may be more evident in terms of motivating high black turnout than in overwhelming support for the Democrat.

Obama did not fare well against Hillary Clinton among Hispanics in the 2008 primaries, but the early indications are that he will do well among this increasingly Democratic group in the general election. The May data show Obama with a 62% to 29% advantage over McCain among Hispanics.

McCain currently maintains a strong advantage over Obama among non-Hispanic white voters, 53% to 38%.





link

I flatly do not believe 62-29.  I just don't.  GWB carried 45% of the hispanic vote in 2004, and while a lot of that may have come from his home state of texas, there is no way in hell that mccain, who's position on immigration is even softer that bush's, loses that much support.  and many of these results fly in the face of this pew research poll (.pdf) in the demographic groups where you can make draw some reasonable parallels.

no, I am not playing the "my poll rocks, your poll sucks" game , but I do think that the only valaue that national polls have at this point is to identify trends, not precise levels of public support.  and we just don't have enough data to identify trends yet.  we've only had candidates for a couple of days.

I agree completely.  I just happened to see that right after reading this thread, so I thought that it was interesting.

Polls are meaningless right now.  A year ago McCain was dead in the water and Hillary was getting ready for her coronation.