links?
Here's a couple for you:
From the Jerusalem Post: Poll shows 65 percent of Jews support Obama
http://www.jpost.com/USPresidentialrace/Article.aspx?id=286414
But, it's bad news for the Obamessiah. Why?
2008 Jewish Vote for Obama Exceeds All Expectations
http://www.njdc.org/site/page/jewish_vote_for_obama_exceeds_all_expectations
13 points down from '08. Enough to shift Florida to RSquared? Maybe.
Ok I found the poll from 2008 conducted by the same pollster (American Jewish Committee): It had Obama leading McCain 57-30%. http://www.ajc.org/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=ijITI2PHKoG&b=849241&ct=6010403
Because of the undecided respondends or whatever other reason the poll did not come close to guessing Obama's exit poll showing; therefore, for you to conclude that Obama "has lost 10 points" from the exit poll is an apples vs. oranges argument, since:
1) There are no undecided voters in an exit poll (because everyone voted already), and
2) The pollster (AJC) is expected to underestimate Obama's vote in 2012 as it did in 2008.
An apples vs. apples comparison would be to compare Obama's 65% in this poll to Obama's 57% in the September, 2008 poll.
Ok I found the poll from 2008 conducted by the same pollster (American Jewish Committee): It had Obama leading McCain 57-30%. http://www.ajc.org/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=ijITI2PHKoG&b=849241&ct=6010403
Because of the undecided respondends or whatever other reason the poll did not come close to guessing Obama's exit poll showing; therefore, for you to conclude that Obama "has lost 10 points" from the exit poll is an apples vs. oranges argument, since:
1) There are no undecided voters in an exit poll (because everyone voted already), and
2) The pollster (AJC) is expected to underestimate Obama's vote in 2012 as it did in 2008.
An apples vs. apples comparison would be to compare Obama's 65% in this poll to Obama's 57% in the September, 2008 poll.
One would think that my state, Ohio, would not be considering retaining MAObama at all. It voted for a Republican governor in 2010 and is making a small comeback as a result. And yet today, September 30th, the Columbus Dispatch runs a front-page story about a poll with BIG BRObama leading by 9 points, 51-42.
Funny thing about that poll, of the people who voted in the 2010 election 51.3% voted for Strickland and 48.7% for Kasich
And another one . . .
http://www.examiner.com/article/polls-romney-leads-obama-51-44-on-trust-to-handling-the-economy
If this election is about the economy, Romney will win hands down.
If this election is about the economy, Romney will win hands down.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 46%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
Four years ago today, Rasmussen Reports tracking showed Obama leading John McCain by a 51% to 45% margin. The numbers barely budged for the rest of the campaign season as Obama enjoyed a comfortable lead and stayed between 50% and 52% every day for the last 40 days.
When “leaners†are included, it’s now Obama 49%, Romney 47%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question. Today is the last day that results will be reported without leaners. Beginning tomorrow, Rasmussen Reports will be basing its daily public updates solely upon the results including leaners. Platinum Members will be still be able to see the more detailed numbers along with demographic breakdowns, and additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.
Currently, 43% of voters are “certain†they will vote for Romney. Forty-two percent (42%) are that certain they will vote for Obama. The remaining 15% are either uncommitted or open to changing their mind. To many Americans, especially partisan activists, it is hard to imagine how someone could be anything but certain at this point in time. One of the distinguishing features of these potentially persuadable voters is that they don’t see the choice between Romney and Obama as terribly significant. In terms of impacting their own life, just 28% say it will be Very Important which man wins.
There is particular pessimism among these persuadable voters about the economy. Only 14% think it will get better if the president is reelected. But just 28% believe it will improve with a Romney victory.
Here's Scott Rassmusen's poll out today:
While there is some bad news for both, there is some good news for both. I bolded the third and fourth paragraphs to illustrate this. The thing is, the uncommitted tend to break for the challenger by at least 2 to 1.
It's going to be close . . . until the last week or three. Remember something--PM Netanyahu of Israel has said that if they don't feel confident of a Romney victory, they will strike Iran. The new moon is around October 12th.
And they are all over sampling Dems. So they don't mean anything, and don't matter.
Politico/GWU - National (http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html)After Romney wins by a landslide, I hope all these false polls go out of business. Many of them outright manipulate or lie
D +3 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 47
2008 turnout: Obama 51, Romney 45
2004 turnout: Romney 48, Obama 48
PPP - Ohio (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_930.pdf)
D +5 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 45
2008 turnout: Obama 49, Romney 45
2004 turnout: Romney 48, Obama 46
Gravis - Florida (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_FL_1001.pdf)
D +3.8 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 48
No cross sections
PPP - North Carolina (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_9301.pdf)
D +12 Poll: Romney 48, Obama 48
2008 turnout: Romney 50, Obama 46
2004 turnout: Romney 54, Obama 42
After Romney wins by a landslide, I hope all these false polls go out of business. Many of them outright manipulate or lie
It's going to be close . . . until the last week or three. Remember something--PM Netanyahu of Israel has said that if they don't feel confident of a Romney victory, they will strike Iran. The new moon is around October 12th.
According to an astronomical site, the new moon is October 29th.
Or am I missing something?
Anyway...
We could have a case where deliberately biased – and possibly completely false – opinion polls would be telling the Israelis to attack Iran now.
As mentioned earlier above, what I am unsure of here is whether an October Israeli attack helps or hurts BIG BRObama. If he condemns it, as I suspect he would, his base of pacifists and anti-Semites will be more than thrilled. If he votes present and waffles on it with some vague message of supporting peace in the Middle East, a message released on a Friday night, will America care? If he seems to support it, or in fact did support it with some sort of auxiliary military action, will America think that finally he is showing leadership, or will they be appalled that we are being dragged into another war?
We know (most probably) that Romney would support the action.
And what happens if such an attack is a disaster for the Israelis, or is inconclusive? Or, successful or not, sets off massive rioting and murder against Western countries and their institutions across the planet?
Do Americans stay with MAObama under such conditions? Would he (improbably) rise to the occasion and show leadership from the front?
The clock is ticking.
If O'bama wins and it is within a couple of percentage points he has a HUGE problem. He's the incumbent and if he has been doing a good job he should be running away with it. He is not.
If O'bama wins and we make gains in the House and retake the Senate I personally won't give a damn.
If O'bama wins and we make no gains in the House and we don't retake the Senate we are well and completely screwed.
KC
Amen! O-)
I also have been mulling some future scenarios: MAObama wins this year, America goes bankrupt, massive inflation and the ruin of the dollar occur, and the Dem brand is ruined for 40 years, allowing Republicans to have a 2014 veto-proof Congressional majority and Paul Ryan/Marco Rubio whoever to have a landslide in 2016.
Or...
MAObama wins this year, America goes bankrupt, massive inflation and the ruin of the dollar occur, and MAObama declares martial law nationally and begins nationalizing industries a la any banana-dictatorship in Central or South America, while spreading more hate the rich propaganda and solidifying his position for a 3rd term after suspending the Constitution "to protect poor Americans."
Or...
Romney wins this year, America goes bankrupt, massive inflation and the ruin of the dollar occur, and he gets blamed for everything a la Herbert Hoover, making a 2016 comeback by BIG BRObama inevitable.
Or...
Romney wins this year, America goes bankrupt, massive inflation and the ruin of the dollar occur, but a Conservative approach prevents complete disaster, and the economy comes back fast enough to keep Dems at bay in 2014 and 2016.
Obama will pull a Grover Cleveland.
ARG - North Carolina (http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NC12.html)
D +10 Poll: Romney 50, Obama 46
2008 turnout: Romney 49, Obama 47
2004 turnout: Romney 54, Obama 42
Quinnipiac - National (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1801)
Poll: Obama 49, Romney 45
2008 turnout: Obama 49, Romney 45
2004 turnout: Romney 48, Obama 46
It is definitely not looking good for Barry Big Ears ...
I know these polls only compare presidential races every four years but I think the turn out this year will be closer to 2010 levels. As with then, the press and the left (but I repeat myself) are completely underestimating & ignoring what's happening under their noses. We're working, planning, registering & motivated. We just think our time is better spent making phone calls instead of shitting on cop cars.
Conservatives & independents will be out in droves. The left isn't as enthused. That's huge, especially given many of these polls sample registered voters. Many of those will be apathetic. And one of the things they never consider while oversampling dems...they may just create enough inevitability in their minds that many of them won't bother to vote.
Cindie
Roanoke College - Virginia (http://roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RCPoll.Sept.2012.Xtabs.pdf)
Poll: Obama 48, Romney 40
2008 turnout: Obama 46, Romney 42
2004 turnout: Obama 45, Romney 43
Interesting that this poll didnt show how much they over sampled dems but they couldnt hide Romney winning independents by 13%. Looking at all these internals the only thing keeping Romney from straight out dominating them is that nearly all of democrats are decided 95/5 in favor of Obama but Romney is only looking at 85-90/5 from republicans. Who are these undecided republicans and what exactly are they waiting for? The choice is either Romney or Obama and they know they dont want Obama.
This thread is interesting for us to discuss the polls, but we ALL need to go and vote this year, regardless of the state you reside in.
Are there any polls that do not over sample Dems?
They're all at FR lamenting the fact that there's no Jesus Christ/Rick Santorum ticket.
Cindie
That was my first thought: die-hard born-again Christians who cannot get past the Mormon connection.
As a Catholic I would much rather have a Mormon than a racist, Communist, fake-Christian and crypto-atheist like BIG BRObama.
They're all a FR lamenting the fact that there's no Jesus Christ/Rick Santorum ticket.
Cindie
So when the unemployment number gets revised upward next week, as it has every report for the last 4 years, can Romney hit O again with it? How about next month when it's back over 8% because people start thinking "we're in a recovery, there must be some jobs out there that I can get" and the labor force gets larger.
I find it hard to believe that the employment numbers went up and the unemployment percentage also went up.
But not really, considering the "unbiased" source of this info.
Meet the Obama Donors at the BLS
BY: Washington Free Beacon Staff
October 5, 2012 1:28 pm
At least two economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have contributed to President Barack Obama’s campaign. Harley Frazis of Bethesda, MD, has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama and $9,000 to the Democratic National Convention over the last three election cycles. During his time at BLS, Harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long- and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?â€
Television networks and the Associated Press will skip exit polling in 19 states in the upcoming presidential election, apparently deciding those states have already gone to President Barack Obama or Mitt Romney.
The Post said an official at the National Election Pool confirmed it will only focus on 31 states on November 6, when the nation elects a president. People in the 19 excluded states will be included in some national exit polling.
The Pool is a cooperative agreement between the television networks and the AP to combine resources to do exit polls, which the news outlets have done for several decades.
The 19 states include Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
Almost all of those 19 states are in the Republican camp, and it would give Mitt Romney a 138 to 19 lead in the electoral vote right at the start of election night.
Have TV networks, AP already called 19 states? (http://news.yahoo.com/tv-networks-ap-already-called-19-states-101804164.html)
By Scott Bomboy | National Constitution Center
Im surprised its only 19
I kind of agree with their reasoning. Certain are a lock for one candidate or the other so why waste the resources. Eventually they might just start covering the swing states with exit polls.
Then why the deuce isn't New York on that list (of the 19 states that exit polls are being pulled from)? :???: :???: :???:
New York has a huge number of electoral votes. They know those will go to Obama early and slant the lead in his favor. That might help to discourage Romney voters.
New York has a huge number of electoral votes. They know those will go to Obama early and slant the lead in his favor. That might help to discourage Romney voters.
How so if Romney starts the evening already halfway to the 270 EV's needed. New York is a large EV State but not that Large :-)
Aren't most of the eastern states leaning or going to Obama? Which states have polls closing the earliest?
Well of course Eastern states polls close the earliest but do you think Obama will carry the entire eastern coast and acquire enough EC votes to overcome and surpass an 138 EC vote deficit to point of discouraging Romney voters.
Post debate numbers ....
Rasmussen Tracking 10/4 - 10/6 1500 LV 3.0 47 49 Romney +2
Gallup Tracking 9/30 - 10/6 3050 RV 2.0 49 46 Obama +3
More info: http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
Gallop must be really over sampling Dems to have obama still in the lead. Looking at the numbers stating that almost 70% say that Romney won the debate; and then to get people shown who obama really is. You know they are cooking the numbers
PEW POLL PUTS ROMNEY UP FOUR OVER OBAMA
Battleground Poll: Romney Up Sixteen Points With Independents;
Among Those Most Likely to Vote, Leads 52-46 In Swing States
(http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/10/10-8-12-horserace.gif)
http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/
http://minx.cc/?post=333616
Pew Research 10/4 - 10/7 1112 LV 3.4 45 49 Romney +4
Rasmussen Tracking 10/5 - 10/7 1500 LV 3.0 48 48 Tie
Careful with that Pew Poll; apparently it has an R +3 sample, according to Ace of Spades.
An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.
According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.
The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.
“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,†Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.â€
While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up.
The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election.
Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico -- now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.
In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.7 percent, with only the two major parties considered.
While national polls continue to show the president in the lead, “the president seems to be reaching a ceiling at or below 50 percent in many of these states,†Bickers said. “Polls typically tighten up in October as people start paying attention and there are fewer undecided voters.â€
The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors analyzed changes in personal income from the time of the prior presidential election. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates, while Republicans are held more responsible for fluctuations in personal income.
Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.
In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had a statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention, the home state of the vice president or the partisanship of state governors.
The authors also provided caveats. Their model had an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction due to factors not included in the model.
“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,†they wrote.
Romney will carry New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. On the flip side, Obama will take Michigan and Nevada.
In August, TheBlaze told you about University of Colorado Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry and their highly-accurate Electoral College prediction model. As you may recall, Bickers and Berry, using their metrics, are able to retroactively predict every presidential win since 1980.
Their 2012 model made headlines two months ago because, despite polling, it found that Republican presidential candidate Romney would win 320 Electoral Votes, stealing the White House away from President Barack Obama. Now, an updated version of their study has come to the same conclusion — but it intensifies the numbers behind a predicted Romney win.
Despite the fact that polls still show a dead-heat race (Obama is currently at 48.2 percent, with Romney capturing 47.3 percent of likely voters in the most recent Real Clear Politics average), an updated election model shows an even larger gap between the Electoral College votes that Romney and Obama are projected to win. According to Bickers and Berry, the Republican challenger is projected to take 330 of the 558 votes, while Obama is expected to capture only 208 of them.
With 270 as the major number needed for any candidate to win, this clearly shows Obama far from the mark, sending Romney — at least theoretically — to victory come November. While the model did not change, Bickers‘ and Berry’s analysis is based on updated economic data, which clearly helped sway the projection even further in Romney’s favor.
-continued at the link-
Romney up 2 in new national poll from … Daily Kos?http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/09/romney-up-2-in-new-national-poll-from-daily-kos/
posted at 12:01 pm on October 9, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
I have to give Markos Moulitsas credit for posting this result. He could have taken the easy way out and had PPP release it independently. And looking within the depths of this poll result, you have to know how much it pained him to follow through on the likely-voter survey Markos commissioned (via Twitchy):
The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
Obama 47 (49)
Romney 49 (45)
That’s a pretty disastrous six-point net swing in just a week, and the first time we’ve ever had Romney in the lead. It is inline with all other national polling showing Romney making gains in the wake of his debate performance last week.
The sample is a D+3,
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/09/romney-up-2-in-new-national-poll-from-daily-kos/
Has anyone seen that Military Times poll?http://www.conservativecave.com/index.php/topic,79156.0.html
Romney 66%
Obama 24%
http://www.conservativecave.com/index.php/topic,79156.0.html
Whoa...
Ohio: American Research Group.
D (42%), R (33%), I (25%)
Romney 48, Obama 47
Link (http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/OH12.html)
Has anyone seen that Military Times poll?
Romney 66%
Obama 24%
Um. Go to Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html) right now.
Romney is up in the overall poll average.
:yahoo:
Um. Go to Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html) right now.
Romney is up in the overall poll average.
:yahoo:
RCP Average 9/28 - 10/8 -- -- 48.2 47.8 Romney +0.4
Rasmussen Tracking 10/6 - 10/8 1500 LV 3.0 48 48 Tie
Pew Research 10/4 - 10/7 1112 LV 3.4 49 45 Romney +4
Gallup Tracking 10/2 - 10/8 2721 LV 2.0 49 47 Romney +2
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/1 - 10/4 1000 LV 3.1 48 49 Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research 9/28 - 9/30 783 LV 3.5 47 50 Obama +3
I'm listening to Rush in between laundry and cooking dinner, did I hear Rush right? he said Romney is up by 5 in Ohio even though Democrats were oversampled by 9 points? and Romney is leading by 20% amongst Independents in Ohio?
I think he said Romney is up by one.
I think all these polls are wrong because of Democrat over sampling. Romney is going to win in a landslide.
I think all these polls are wrong because of Democrat over sampling. Romney is going to win in a landslide.
Fat lady ain't sung yet, guys. There's a whole lotta backstabbin' in this campaign left to do.
Fat lady ain't sung yet, guys. There's a whole lotta backstabbin' in this campaign left to do.
Call me an optimist but folks are starting to open their eyes and ears and using their brains to all the BS & lies coming from the current administration that further BS and lies will only hurt them not Romney.
Don't get me wrong they will still bleat the lies but to their own detriment.
All I'm saying is that there is still an entire shitload of Barrybots out there who are convinced he still walks on water. You and I never drank the Kool-Aid, but many of these folks - Mrs E among them - are addicted to it.
You have to remember the 'enthusiasm gap' as reported by Gallup--Republicans up 16 points.
Enthusiasm - like memory - fades quickly with most voters.
If Romney should stumble and Barry actually have his shit together for the next debate, how would Romney then fare? Those ratings could very well plummet just like Barry's prospects of getting laid last Wednesday night.
All I'm saying is that there is still an entire shitload of Barrybots out there who are convinced he still walks on water. You and I never drank the Kool-Aid, but many of these folks - Mrs E among them - are addicted to it.
Enthusiasm - like memory - fades quickly with most voters.
If Romney should stumble and Barry actually have his shit together for the next debate, how would Romney then fare? Those ratings could very well plummet just like Barry's prospects of getting laid last Wednesday night.
I think the die is cast because Obama has nothing to run on. His only accomplishment is Obamacare and more than half of the voters do not like it. Romney has a plan to get the economy back on the right track. Obama has none; I almost feel sorry for him because he is such a pathetic figure who is way out of his league. Romney will win the second debate and that will spell defeat for the community organizer.
12 thousand people showed up at the RR Rally in Ohio today, in the rain and cold...
Has anyone seen that Military Times poll?
Romney 66%
Obama 24%
12 thousand people showed up at the RR Rally in Ohio today, in the rain and cold...
If that ain't enthusiasm, I'd be hard pressed to find an example of what it really is.
Yeah, some guy was trying to argue with me that this poll was only of high ranking NCO's who were career military & officers. He's actually convinced those below Sargent are the poor peons in the tank for 0bama and obviously not polled by Military Times. Obviously he's never tried to live (let alone raise a family) on a sgt's salary. The fact that anyone could be that obtuse is just petrifying. But then, that's how the boy king got elected.
Not to mention the contempt 0bama has for them...it's palpable. If you don't feel it, even if you're not in the military, then you must be in a coma.
Cindie
Romney up 5 and this one doesn't include Libya.
http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx
KC
Romney’s lead widened to 5 points from 2 points on Tuesday, as he continues to chip away at key Obama support.
Romney’s edge among independents widened to 20 points from 18 just a day before.
Obama’s lead among women narrowed from 10 points to 8 points.
Romney also continues to make inroads among middle-class voters, moving from a 6-point lead against Obama with this group to a 10-point lead.
The current data include only polls taken after Romney’s resounding debate win over Obama on Oct. 3.
If that ain't enthusiasm, I'd be hard pressed to find an example of what it really is.
Unemployed with nothing better to do :tongue:
The Independents are shifting RR but it's the silent crowd ( silent for numerous reasons chief among them not speaking out against Obama for fear of being branded a racist) uncounted, un polled folks that are finding a voice (backbone) and backing RR.
Mitt Romney's strong performance in the first presidential debate may have put Pennsylvania back in play, and closed the gap with President Obama in other battleground states.
A Siena Research Institute Poll on Tuesday showed the Republican nominee trailing Mr. Obama by only three percentage points, 43 percent to 40 percent, in the Keystone State. Other polls prior to the debate had shown Mr. Obama with as much as a 12-point lead.
"Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes suddenly appear to be up for grabs," said poll director Don Levy. "Romney not only has Republican support but now leads in vote-rich areas outside of Philadelphia and also in the central part of the state. With a month and two more debates to go, Pennsylvania's direction on the road to the White House remains in doubt."
The Siena survey found 12 percent of the state's voters undecided. The poll was conducted from Oct. 1 to Oct. 5; the debate took place on Oct. 3.
Meanwhile, the Republican also received a post-debate boost in Wisconsin, where a PPP survey found that Mr. Romney now trails the president by just two percentage points, 49 percent to 47 percent. Two weeks ago Mr. Romney trailed Mr. Obama by seven points there.
In Ohio, an ARG poll taken Oct. 5-8 has Mr. Romney up by one point, 48 percent to 47 percent. Surveys taken there prior to the debate showed the president with as much as an 8-point lead.
In Michigan, an FMW poll taken after the debate showed Mr. Romney trailing by 3 percentage points, just above the margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent.
Not all the polling news was bleak for Obama Thursday. An Oct. 7-9 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Florida poll found significantly different results, with Obama leading Romney among likely Florida voters 48 percent to 47 percent, and well ahead of Romney among women. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.
A couple differences between the Marist poll and Mason-Dixon: Mason-Dixon, which has been polling in Florida for 28 years, uses a survey sample based on people's voter actual registration to match the electorate in Florida, while Marist uses a sample based on whether people say they consider themselves a Republican, Democrat or independent. About 20 percent of the likely voters in the Marist poll were Hispanic, while 13 percent were Hispanic in the Mason-Dixon poll, more in line with the Florida voting patterns. Marist had Obama leading among Hispanics 47 percent to 45 percent.
I removed that post. I saw they used the same survey in Tampa Bay, so my qurstion, to me, was answered.
But, I'll ask it here for fairness: Are the rest of them Democrat oversampled? Are they all the same sampling?
You'd have to google for the internals of each poll, but IMO the oversampling early on was to demoralize us, the closer to the election the more realistic the polling, the people doing the polling have reps to think of.That makes sense. You are probably right.
That makes sense. You are probably right.
The other part of that post was, should we be celebrating the polls now even though we lamented them and saying don't trust them when Zero was up in the polls?
To answer my own question, the answer is yes, if they are more realistic.
Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney's best numbers of the weekhttp://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/16/1144982/-Daily-Kos-SEIU-State-of-the-Nation-poll-Romney-s-best-numbers-of-the-week
Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 10/12-14. Likely voters. MoE ±2.5% (10/4-7 results)
The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
Obama 46 (47)
Romney 50 (49)
Gallup: R 50% O 46% (http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=All%20Gallup%20Headlines%20-%20Politics)
Any DUmmie head explosions over these polls that just keep getting better?
KC
Real Clear Politics updated today, and Romney is ahead in every poll except two (Liberal sources), which he is tied ..
Poll Date Sample MoE Romney (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 10/4 - 10/12 -- -- 47.3 46.0 Romney +1.3
Rasmussen Tracking 10/10 - 10/12 1500 LV 3.0 49 48 Romney +1
Gallup Tracking 10/6 - 10/12 2700 LV 2.0 49 47 Romney +2
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 10/8 - 10/10 1360 LV 2.7 47 46 Romney +1
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/6 - 10/11 837 LV 3.5 46 46 Tie
FOX News 10/7 - 10/9 1109 LV 3.0 46 45 Romney +1
Pew Research 10/4 - 10/7 1112 LV 3.4 49 45 Romney +4
WashTimes/JZ Analytics* 10/5 - 10/7 800 LV 3.5 45 45 Tie
Intrade Real Time Quotes Romney: 40.2 | obama: 59.8 (See More Data)
Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney
Romney 51% Obama 45%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx
Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney
Romney 51% Obama 45%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx
Um, IBD is Investors Business Daily--VERY conservative (more so than WSJ.)
But note that most of the polls are now going from Adults/Registered Voters to Likely Voters, giving Romney the edge he had all along, and just far enough out to save face with the MSM outlets.
Is this from toda? Rush was talking about one of them.
The must-have campaign app of this political season is not from the Romney or Obama camp—though each has its own candidate for iPhones and Android devices. In these closing weeks the app of the moment is the free PollTracker, which keeps you wired with hour-by-hour updates of polls for both local and national races.
PollTracker defaults to a "Presidential Dashboard" with a big, clean scoreboard showcasing the Romney versus Obama race nationwide, based on a weighted average of a variety of polls. Tap on "Swing States" to see the presidential race for Ohio, Virginia and 10 other key Electoral College races.
PollTracker
Enlarge Image
.
Price: Free
Features: Customized dashboard for tracking specific races.
Other Political Apps: Ad Hawk, Vote
Available via: iTunes, Google Play
.
.
You can set up alerts on specific races and create a personal dashboard to keep current on, say, Massachusetts, where GOP Senator Scott Brown trails Democrat Elizabeth Warren, and Arizona, where Republican Jeff Flake is beating Democrat Richard Carmona.
In the Presidential screen, you can dig into subgroups such as men (Romney is consistently favored), women (Obama, consistently). The app also shows how voters rate candidates on key issues (Romney is trouncing Obama on the economy, recently 51% to 44%).
Although PollTracker is from the liberal TalkingPointsMemo.com, there's no political leaning evident in the app. It transparently presents polls from a wide variety of sources, such as Gallup and Rasmussen, and indicates how current the results are.
Some political apps are strikingly creative. The Sunlight Foundation's Ad Hawk identifies who's behind TV messages based on their sound. The makers of the popular Infinity Blade game have recast that sword-fighting as a free hack-and-slash between Obama and Romney, who wield mics and other campaign-themed weapons. As of last week, the cumulative score from all players of Vote put Obama ahead, 23.7 million to 22.6 million. Talk about early returns.
Obama is up 51/45 with women, 62/34 with Hispanics, 87/8 with African Americans, and 57/38 with young voters.
Romney is ahead 50/45 with men, 46/41 with independents, 58/38 with whites, and 53/43 with seniors.
Romney Takes Lead in Electoral College (Real Clear Politics)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
:yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo:
And unless I'm wrong all of this is before the 2nd debate bump which I firmly believe is on the way.
KC
is going to have to be a large one just to keep Obama in the race, Romney up 7 points in Gallup is a pretty large hurdle to get over.
From following Texacon, I'm thinking he believes ROMNEY will get the post-debate bump. :hyper:
PPP
They said they are going to do three day polls of 400 people up till the election.
Oh, I dont think there would be one for either candidate they both looked pretty awful and most of the polls showed Obama to win even if it was within the polls MOE
You must not have seen the Fox AND MSNBC focus groups. They both gave it to Romney. I do think there will be a debate bump for Romney and it'll happen right before Monday or on Monday. If Romney continues down this path by this time next week O'bama will be a "bump in the road."
KC
[snip]
A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.
Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.
It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.
[/snip]
[snip]
Mitt Romney has hit the 50 percent mark in Virginia for the first time in the Rasmussen Reports poll, and the trend is in his direction, suggesting that the Old Dominion's 13 Electoral Votes are moving to the GOP camp.
Just out Friday morning, Rasmussen said:
"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Virginia voters, taken two nights after the second presidential debate, shows Romney with 50 percent support to President Obama's 47 percent. Two percent remain undecided."
Last week, Romney led 49 percent to 47 percent in Virginia.
[/snip]
My state is going red !! :yahoo:
You shouldnt get your hopes up, Romney isnt spending any money in PA.
And O is spending money there, which would make it all the sweeter.
MSNBC - Iowa (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Iowa-October-18.pdf)
D +2 Poll: Obama 51, Romney 43
no cross sections
SurveyUSA - Ohio (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9fe706c7-86ef-4698-b0d3-15ec2d79d203)
D +7 Poll: Obama 45 Romney 42
2008 turnout: Obama 47, Romney 40
2004 turnout: Romney 48, Obama 39
PPP - Colorado (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_1018.pdf)
D +3 Poll: Obama 50, Romney 47
2008 turnout: Obama 50, Romney 47
2004 turnout: Romney 51, Obama 46
You shouldnt get your hopes up, Romney isnt spending any money in PA.
Friday, October 19
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Virginia Rasmussen Reports Romney 50, Obama 47 Romney +3
Iowa PPP (D) Obama 48, Romney 49 Romney +1
Florida CNN/Opinion Research Romney 49, Obama 48 Romney +1
Florida Rasmussen Reports Romney 51, Obama 46 Romney +5
New Hampshire PPP (D) Romney 49, Obama 48 Romney +1
Wisconsin Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Romney 48 Obama +2
Oregon SurveyUSA Obama 49, Romney 42 Obama +7
Missouri Rasmussen Reports Romney 54, Obama 43 Romney +11
California Reason-Rupe Obama 53, Romney 38 Obama +15
heres inside some of those polls Kyle, the sampling is a bit different from the polls yesterday
PPP - Iowa (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IANH_1019.pdf)
R +4 Poll: Romney 49, Obama 48
PPP - New Hampshire (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IANH_1019.pdf)
R +6 Poll: Romney 49, Obama 48
CNN - Florida (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/19/topgenstate5.pdf)
Party even Poll: Romney 49, Obama 48
Which is why Obama will win PA and lose the election
One of the founders of FreedomWorks was telling Glenn today that the polls in Ohio don't match the "ground game". They targeted undecided voters who went from not sure to knocking on doors for Romney. And the crowds at R2 rallies have been big.
Where are you getting R +4 & +6? I've been reading through the pdf and don't see the breakdown. I see the total # polled.
Cindie
Both polls are on the same link, The Iowa sampling is on page 3 and the New Hampshire sampling is on page 31
And yet, here's another one...same group...that shows 0bama up by only one in a D+8 SAMPLE! (http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/20/PPP-Keeps-Obamas-Ohio-Lead-with-D-8-Sample)
Romney has momentum...although supposedly that hag Gloria Allred has some bullshit coming out at the perfect moment for an October surprise. Bet the Romney campaign shoots it down though. Maybe big bird is suing.
Cindie
Faux News (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/10/19/fox-news-poll-results-support-for-obama-dips-in-ohio/)Really? :whatever:
Really? :whatever:
Gravis - Ohio (http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/gravis-ohio-poll-shows.html)
D +9 Poll: Romney 47, Obama 47
Faux News - Ohio (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/10/19/fox-news-poll-results-support-for-obama-dips-in-ohio/)
D +8 Poll: Obama 46, Romney 43
PPP - Ohio (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1020.pdf)
D +8 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 48
SurveyUSA - Florida (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac0d63ea-75f1-42aa-ba9c-e6955f64c76b)
D +9 Poll: Obama 47, Romney 46
Hartford Courant/UConn - National (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Courant_UConn_1019.pdf)
D +8 Poll: Obama 48, Romney 45
The oversampling is out of control just trying to keep the race close
ELECTION 2012 TRACKING
Oct 14-20, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change
REGISTERED VOTERS
CHANGE
Romney 49% +1
Obama 46% -
LIKELY VOTERS
CHANGE
Romney 52% +1
Obama 45% -
Election 2012: Colorado Presidenthttp://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/colorado/election_2012_colorado_president
Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/colorado/election_2012_colorado_president
NBC/WSJ - National (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/nbc_oct_poll.pdf)
D +6 Poll: Romney 47, Obama 47
Monmouth - National (http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/0e2e970e-a544-4f4d-8659-6233705b8ae7.pdf)
D +4 Poll: Romney 48, Obama 45
Politico/GWU - National (http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html)
D +3 Poll: Romney 49, Obama 47
UNH - New Hampshire (http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2012_pres102212.pdf)
D +7 Poll: Obama 51, Romney 42
Suffolk - Ohio (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Suffolk_OH_1022.pdf)
D +4 Poll: Romney 47, Obama 47
CBS - Ohio (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57536922/poll-obamas-lead-in-ohio-narrows/?pageNum=3&tag=page)
D +9 Poll: Obama 50, Romney 45
Another round of over-sampled polls
:lmao: :lmao:
Does anyone know what the numbers are for Illinois? I would nothing more than Barry to lose his home state..
I would give him Illinois to laugh my self silly if he and Scott Brown win in Mass. Fauxahauntis Warren aka Princess rich bitch and Barry Big Ears left on the voting room floors of Mass? Priceless. :-)
Here's what I have, using the FNC predictor.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-race-predictions-results?s=222212111221212222211121222222121222212122222121222
Here's what I have, using the FNC predictor.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-race-predictions-results?s=222212111221212222211121222222121222212122222121222
Here is mine: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-race-predictions-results?s=222212212221212222212121222221111222212222222121222
I predicted obama: 181 | Romney: 357
I predict 2 disappointed people on election night, Romney wont get over the 300 mark. Ive got him at 295.
I pretty much chose states i know he won't win, and the other states he has a chance to win. It won't surprise if he doesn't get over the 300 mark. It also wouldn't surprise me if he loses, this country has already shown how stupid it can be when they voted Barry in the first time.
The polls are skewed...
(http://i46.tinypic.com/2ljkm1d.jpg)
They did the same thing with Cater and Reagan....And look how it turned out. You would think they would learn from it. Then these are DUmmies, they don't learn anything.
The polls are skewed...
(http://i46.tinypic.com/2ljkm1d.jpg)
They did the same thing with Cater and Reagan....And look how it turned out. You would think they would learn from it. Then these are DUmmies, they don't learn anything.
The polls are skewed...
(http://i46.tinypic.com/2ljkm1d.jpg)
They did the same thing with Cater and Reagan....And look how it turned out. You would think they would learn from it. Then these are DUmmies, they don't learn anything.
The polls are skewed...
(http://i46.tinypic.com/2ljkm1d.jpg)
They did the same thing with Cater and Reagan....And look how it turned out. You would think they would learn from it. Then these are DUmmies, they don't learn anything.
I just hope that people don't get complacent thinking Romney will win, and not go vote.
Ron Paul and Gary Johnson could still throw a mess into the Romney vote.
Pray for bad (rainy, cold or snowy) weather in the northern states so the Democrats don't want to bother going to the polls. :-)
I don't think that's going to happen on our side. However, all these stories about it being close might energize O's base. I kinda hope the oversampled polls keep coming, so they feel like they're winning and don't need to vote.
I worry that the other side will find oh so many "new" voters. You know - the dead ones, the felons, the quadruple registered, and the illegals? :mad:
Newt just said on Greta that Romney is going to get over 300 Ev's as well. He said that Romney is going to lose every state that he is tied with obama on.How does Romney get over 300 EVs if he loses every state?
How does Romney get over 300 EVs if he loses every state?
:thatsright: I meant to say WIN every state that he is tied with obama on ... Thanks for noticing that. i will correct it.
I'm the pessimist. I get Romney up to 261 giving him VA, NC, NH & CO, but Obama PA and OH. I think the "fix" is already in Ohio and PA too far away. Only way I can get Romney over 270 is picking up 6 e-votes each from IA and NV. Ohio polls don't calculate fraud. If they asked "How many people are you voting for?" and still came up tied at 48=48 I'd feel a lot more comfortable.
As an Ohioan I can verify that fraud is always a problem where Dems are in charge, like in Cleveland and Toledo. We will see what happens however: Afro-American pastors are not supporting MAObama, and that might be just enough to offset the fraud known to occur.Just find a picture of his last rally in OH...at least 12,000 by one estimate.
I have a sense that the election might not be close here after all, that Romney is actually farther ahead than it seems, but the sense is not based anything other than anecdotal evidence.
Just find a picture of his last rally in OH...at least 12,000 by one estimate.
Wonder how the polls are going to change as more and more of the Benghazi story comes out?
They should shift more to Romney. Today's Benghazi is 1979's Iran Hostage Situation. Carter lost because of it, and this will be one of the reasons obama loses.
You would hope that such would be the case, but the Kool-Aid is already spiked! One of my unenlightened colleagues already has the excuse: "Oh now this is just ridiculous! You can't expect a person to order troops around when they don'treally know what's happening at the time."Then that person is the happiest person on earth.
And when you counter with "But they did REALLY know what was happening" the answer is "No, no, no! They were just getting the CIA's opinions! They needed time to sift through all the contradictions!"
Sigh! Ignorance is bliss!
You would hope that such would be the case, but the Kool-Aid is already spiked! One of my unenlightened colleagues already has the excuse: "Oh now this is just ridiculous! You can't expect a person to order troops around when they don'treally know what's happening at the time."
And when you counter with "But they did REALLY know what was happening" the answer is "No, no, no! They were just getting the CIA's opinions! They needed time to sift through all the contradictions!"
Sigh! Ignorance is bliss!
So many people have already voted too.
I don't understand how people can see the videos, the emails, and so on...and not believe what happened.
Course the fact that Fox News is about the only one covering it, has a lot to do with the lack of knowledge too. At some point, MSM is going to be forced to cover this. It's getting too huge to avoid.
So many people have already voted too.Oh, look at the libtard friends of mine on my FB page crying, "9/11 killed 3,000 and Bush knew!! And this is just 4 people! These things happen. The right is just politicizing it because you want Obama to fail."
I don't understand how people can see the videos, the emails, and so on...and not believe what happened.
Course the fact that Fox News is about the only one covering it, has a lot to do with the lack of knowledge too. At some point, MSM is going to be forced to cover this. It's getting too huge to avoid.
Oh, look at the libtard friends of mine on my FB page crying, "9/11 killed 3,000 and Bush knew!! And this is just 4 people! These things happen. The right is just politicizing it because you want Obama to fail."
The MSM is hiding this scandal: 307 Million Americans should be smelling the pustulating stench from this scandal, but the MSM has no shame about shilling for the criminals at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
See this about how the CIA refuses to take the fall: they gave no stand-down order to prevent a rescue:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/petraeus-throws-obama-under-bus_657896.html (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/petraeus-throws-obama-under-bus_657896.html)
I am here by done with RealClearPolitics.com ... They are shills for obama.
I looked at the latest Realclearpolitics polls between obama and Romney. Romney is ahead in SIX of them from between a 1 to 5 point margin. obama is ahead in THREE by a 1 to 3 point margin. In one poll they are tied. RCP HAS THEM AVERAGED AS BEING A TIE! That is so utterly false that I can't even describe how stupid it is. These polls are trying everything they can put obama ahead. It is making them all look like morons ..
are you disputing the math or the polls? RCP isnt partisan, but they are also at the mercy of the polls. they dont choose which polls to use and which ones to toss. They show them all and let people make their own opinions.
The math. I don't see how Romney being ahead by a 1 to 5 point margin in six polls can be even with obama only being by a 1 to 3 margin in three of them. It doesn't add up.
RCP Average 10/15 - 10/27 -- -- 47.9 47.0 Romney +0.9
It does add up
here are the 10 polls
Romney +5
Romney +3
Romney +3
Romney +2
Romney +2
Romney +1
Tie
Obama +2
Obama +2
Obama +3
Romney total +16
Obama total +7
difference Romney +9 / 10 polls = Romney +.9
I don't see how that adds up. Unless they are eliminating the tie margins.
Simple math. Its just an average.
average the numbers:5,3,3,2,2,1,0,-2,-2,-3
if you dont trust my math or your math hes a site that does it, http://www.calculatorpro.com/calculator/average-calculator/
ABC/WaPo - National (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121027.html)
Dem: 35%, Ind 34%, GOP 28% Poll: Romney 49, Obama 48
Politico - National (http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html)
D +4 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 48
Cincinnati Inquirer - Ohio (http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121028/NEWS010601/310280047&Ref=AR)
Dem 47%, GOP 44%, Ind 9% Poll: Romney 49, Obama 49
Gravis - Ohio (http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/gravis-marketing-ohio-poll-results.html)
D +8 Poll: Obama 50, Romney 49
PPP - Ohio (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1028.pdf)
D +8 Poll: Obama 51, Romney 47
WaPo and Cincinnati Inquirer going with some different tactics to skew results
I guess thinking that they would quit over sampling Dems is out of the question. Those pollsters are nothing but jokes.
not only that but the sheer amount of polls is ridiculous and really skewing any of the poll averaging which has been consistent in the past
Rush Limbaugh is just now mentioning the same thing: for BIG BRObama to win, turn-out needs to be identical to 2008.
Who believes that enthusiasm for MAObama is the same as 4 years ago? Who believes that enthusiasm for Romney equals that for McLame in 2008?
If anyone does, how do they explain Election 2010 and the rise of the Tea Party movement? How do they explain the failure to recall the governor of Wisconsin?
Quinnipiac - Florida (http://www.scribd.com/doc/111619086/Quinn-10-31-FL-OH-VA?secret_password=2l8php1ck5l2c2wr8j6x)
D +7 Poll: Obama 48, Romney 47
Quinnipiac - Ohio (http://www.scribd.com/doc/111619086/Quinn-10-31-FL-OH-VA?secret_password=2l8php1ck5l2c2wr8j6x)
D +8 Poll: Obama 50, Romney 45
Quinnipiac - Virginia (http://www.scribd.com/doc/111619086/Quinn-10-31-FL-OH-VA?secret_password=2l8php1ck5l2c2wr8j6x)
D +8 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 47
Roanoke College - Virginia (http://roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/Oct%202012%20Qs%20Freqs.final.pdf)
D +4 Poll: Romney 49, Obama 44
Don't forget the weather. I'd wade through shark-infested wather to my polls to vote Obama out of office. I'm thinking that the D's won't be as motivated.
Don't forget the weather. I'd wade through shark-infested wather to my polls to vote Obama out of office. I'm thinking that the D's won't be as motivated.
Q-pac has historically been off to the left in all the national elections.
Link to analysis of Quinnpiac's left-leaningn in past "national elections", please.