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Current Events => Archives => Politics => Election 2008 => Topic started by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 01:23:20 PM

Title: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 01:23:20 PM
I just checked the polls, because I'm taking off for a bit, and then will be back when the results start coming in this evening, from Kentucky and Oregon.

In Kentucky:

Quote
Democratic Polls
Democratic Primary Date: 5/20/08

Delegates At Stake: 60. Awarded Proportionally

Quote
Suffolk University
Date: 5/17-18
Kentucky
Added: 5/19/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Hillary Clinton 51%
Barack Obama 25%
John Edwards 6%
Refused 2%
Unsure 16%
   

Quote
American Research Group
Date: 5/14-15
Kentucky
Added: 5/17/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]

Hillary Clinton 65%
Barack Obama 29%
Unsure 2%
Other 4%


Quote
Survey USA
Date: 5/9-11
Kentucky
Added: 5/14/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]

Hillary Clinton 62%
Barack Obama 30%
Unsure 3%
Other 6%


Quote
Herald Leader WKYT Research 2000 Poll
Date: 5/7-9
Kentucky
Added: 5/14/08
Est. MoE = 4.3% [?]

Hillary Clinton 58%
Barack Obama 31%
Unsure 5%
Other 6%


Quote
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 5/5
Kentucky
Added: 5/7/08
Est. MoE = 3.4% [?]

Hillary Clinton 56%
Barack Obama 31%
Unsure 13%

There's other polls, but older ones, at the link http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/kentucky.html

In Oregon:

Quote
Democratic Polls
Democratic Primary Date: 5/20/08

Delegates At Stake: 65. Awarded Proportionally

Quote
Suffolk University
Date: 5/17-18
Oregon
Added: 5/19/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Barack Obama 45%
Hillary Clinton 41%
Refused 6%
Unsure 8%


Quote
American Research Group
Date: 5/14-16
Oregon
Added: 5/17/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Barack Obama 50%
Hillary Clinton 45%
Unsure 5%


Quote
Public Policy Polling
Date: 5/10-11
Oregon
Added: 5/14/08
Est. MoE = 3.2% [?]

Barack Obama 53%
Hillary Clinton 39%
Unsure 7%


Quote
Survey USA
Date: 5/9-11
Oregon
Added: 5/14/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Barack Obama 54%
Hillary Clinton 43%
Unsure 2%
Other 2%


Quote
Portland Tribune by Davis Hibbitts Midghall
Date: 5/8-10
Oregon
Added: 5/14/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Barack Obama 55%
Hillary Clinton 35%

Others, older ones, at the link http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/oregon.html
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 04:39:35 PM

the suffolk poll has to be an outlier, but the media has been playing it up this afternoon.

Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 05:27:49 PM

hillary is off to a strong start in KY.

Quote
1% reporting

Clinton  3,685 64%

Obama 1,790  31%
   
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 05:42:35 PM

hillary is up 51-45 at 7%;  but the cities seem to be coming in first.

Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 05:45:11 PM
Hello; I just got in.

Before I go out to grab the results, something that might be illuminating.

It appears I jumped the gun last week, and believed statements of a primitive.

That happens; excresence happens.

I had been operating under the assumption that Obama needs only 16 more delegates to go over the top.

But this:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080520/D90P91AG0.html

Quote
_Obama was 17 delegates short of reaching a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates available in all state contests.

_Oregon offered 52 delegates; Kentucky had 51.

_Counting aligned superdelegates as well, Obama had a total of 1,915 and Clinton had 1,721, according to the latest Associated Press count. That placed Obama just more than 100 delegates short of the 2,026 needed to clinch the nomination.

The primitive last week alleged Obama was just 16 short; apparently Obama's 111 short.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 05:47:30 PM

I just noticed that he can't clinch tonight;  he is 108 delegates from the nomination, and
there are 51 delegates in Kentucky and 52 in Oregon.

Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Chris_ on May 20, 2008, 05:48:21 PM

I just noticed that he can't clinch tonight;  he is 108 delegates from the nomination, and
there are 51 delegates in Kentucky and 52 in Oregon.

HA! :popcorn:

Let the entertainment continue...
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 05:50:01 PM
Hello; I just got in.

Before I go out to grab the results, something that might be illuminating.

It appears I jumped the gun last week, and believed statements of a primitive.

That happens; excresence happens.

I had been operating under the assumption that Obama needs only 16 more delegates to go over the top.

But this:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080520/D90P91AG0.html

Quote
_Obama was 17 delegates short of reaching a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates available in all state contests.

_Oregon offered 52 delegates; Kentucky had 51.

_Counting aligned superdelegates as well, Obama had a total of 1,915 and Clinton had 1,721, according to the latest Associated Press count. That placed Obama just more than 100 delegates short of the 2,026 needed to clinch the nomination.

The primitive last week alleged Obama was just 16 short; apparently Obama's 111 short.

heh.  I was headed in the same direction. 
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 05:51:00 PM
With 7% of Kentucky now in:

Clinton 52%
Obama 45%
Edwards 1%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 05:51:09 PM

I just noticed that he can't clinch tonight;  he is 108 delegates from the nomination, and
there are 51 delegates in Kentucky and 52 in Oregon.

HA! :popcorn:

Let the entertainment continue...

and due to this proportional allocation of delegates that the dems do, he will probably walk away with half of those 100 delegates up for grabs tonight.

Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 05:52:06 PM

I think they are going to call KY at the top of the hour;  the exits looked pretty bad for Baroque Obama.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 05:52:38 PM
9% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 50%
Obama 46%
Edwards 1%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 05:55:00 PM
11% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 50%
Obama 47%
Edwards 1%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 05:56:37 PM
11% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 50%
Obama 47%
Edwards 1%

no way it stays that close.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 05:57:37 PM

polls in oregon close at 8PM local time;  11PM eastern. 

Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 06:00:22 PM

jefferson county (louisville) is 65% in, and is running 51% for barack.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:00:52 PM

polls in oregon close at 8PM local time;  11PM eastern. 



That's where I'm confused.

The Oregon primary is a mail primary, the way I understood it.

I didn't think they had to wait for polls to close; I had expected they'd be counting the votes and releasing those totals.  But the web-site I'm on says "polls still open."
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 06:01:03 PM

fox just called KY for hillary;  she should win by 2-1.

*slap*
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:02:09 PM
13% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 49%
Obama 48%
Edwards 1%

These must be the big cities reporting first.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 06:05:08 PM
Hello; I just got in.

Before I go out to grab the results, something that might be illuminating.

It appears I jumped the gun last week, and believed statements of a primitive.

That happens; excresence happens.

I had been operating under the assumption that Obama needs only 16 more delegates to go over the top.

But this:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080520/D90P91AG0.html

Quote
_Obama was 17 delegates short of reaching a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates available in all state contests.

_Oregon offered 52 delegates; Kentucky had 51.

_Counting aligned superdelegates as well, Obama had a total of 1,915 and Clinton had 1,721, according to the latest Associated Press count. That placed Obama just more than 100 delegates short of the 2,026 needed to clinch the nomination.

The primitive last week alleged Obama was just 16 short; apparently Obama's 111 short.

I see where the number 16 (or 17) came from; 

Quote
With Obama within just 17 delegates of claiming a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates available in all state contests . . .

don't ask me why a majority doesn't clinch;  dem rules are unnecessarily complicated.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:06:14 PM
The primitive was counting only yet-to-be-elected pledged delegates.

The primitive didn't take into consideration the unpledged superdelegates.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 06:07:09 PM

polls in oregon close at 8PM local time;  11PM eastern. 



That's where I'm confused.

The Oregon primary is a mail primary, the way I understood it.

I didn't think they had to wait for polls to close; I had expected they'd be counting the votes and releasing those totals.  But the web-site I'm on says "polls still open."

found this.

Quote
The Beaver State has 52 pledged delegates. It also had the distinction of staging the only contest without a designated polling day. Instead, under a vote-by-mail system, election officials tallied all ballots received by 11 p.m. on primary day.

received by, or postmarked by. :whatever:
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:07:57 PM
16% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 51%
Obama 46%
Edwards 1%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 06:12:44 PM

dr. nutz is getting 7% in KY. :whatever:
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:15:41 PM
21% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 53%
Obama 44%
Edwards 1%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 06:18:28 PM

jefferson county (louisville) is 88% in, and is only 49-48 for BHO.  that's not good news for him.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:19:57 PM
Just out of curiosity, and yes, I know it's a stupid question.

What city has the University of Kentucky?

That one, I assume, would go big for Obama.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 06:20:32 PM

and BHO is only running 51% in fayette county (lexington).  not good at all for BHO.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:21:35 PM
24% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 55%
Obama 42%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 06:21:50 PM
Just out of curiosity, and yes, I know it's a stupid question.

What city has the University of Kentucky?

That one, I assume, would go big for Obama.

lexington.  and Louisville is a big university town, too, of course.  he is narrowly ahead in each one of those.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:23:07 PM
Thanks, Wretched Excess.

I wondered; I didn't know because Nebraska at least in my lifetime's never played Kentucky in football.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:25:10 PM
27% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 56%
Obama 41%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 06:27:34 PM
Thanks, Wretched Excess.

I wondered; I didn't know because Nebraska at least in my lifetime's never played Kentucky in football.

playing in the SEC and big 12 is tough enough without that sort of a challenge in your out of conference schedule.

Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:30:35 PM
30% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 57%
Obama 39%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:33:38 PM
Man, I wasn't aware Kentucky's so large.

Population 4,041,000.

Oregon, population 3,421,000.

I mean, I knew Kentucky had boatloads of people, but wasn't aware it was that much.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 06:35:29 PM

peek at the exit polls (http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/05/20/politics/horserace/entry4111767.shtml)

53% of KY voters believe that BHO shares jermiah wright's views. 
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:36:48 PM
32% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 54%
Obama 43%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:39:29 PM
36% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 55%
Obama 42%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Lord Undies on May 20, 2008, 06:39:44 PM
Man, I wasn't aware Kentucky's so large.

Population 4,041,000.

Oregon, population 3,421,000.

I mean, I knew Kentucky had boatloads of people, but wasn't aware it was that much.

Those small numbers shock me.  DFW metro alone is almost 6 million.    
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:41:10 PM
I know, Demonic Underwear.

Compare that, please, with the circa 1,600,000 of Nebraska.

Circa 67% who live in or around Omaha-Lincoln, leaving the rest of the state pretty empty.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Odin's Hand on May 20, 2008, 06:43:40 PM

peek at the exit polls (http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/05/20/politics/horserace/entry4111767.shtml)

53% of KY voters believe that BHO shares jermiah wright's views. 

I can't believe after 20+ years of diligent attendance of "Rev." Wright's sermons that that percentage is that small.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:45:41 PM
40% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 57%
Obama 40%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 06:45:45 PM

peek at the exit polls (http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/05/20/politics/horserace/entry4111767.shtml)

53% of KY voters believe that BHO shares jermiah wright's views. 

I can't believe after 20+ years of diligent attendance of "Rev." Wright's sermons that that percentage is that small.

 . . . and only 32% in WA. :thatsright:
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:51:47 PM
43% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 58%
Obama 39%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:53:45 PM
What states are up next week, Wretched Excess?

I saw it, but wasn't paying attention, and so it evaporated from the cerebral cells.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 06:54:47 PM
48% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 58%
Obama 38%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 06:55:07 PM

terry mcauliffe was just on fox news basically taunting the life out of BHO. :-)
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Lord Undies on May 20, 2008, 06:59:47 PM

terry mcauliffe was just on fox news basically taunting the life out of BHO. :-)

Example? 
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 07:01:05 PM
52% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 59%
Obama 37%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 07:06:33 PM
55% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 62%
Obama 34%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 07:06:40 PM

terry mcauliffe was just on fox news basically taunting the life out of BHO. :-)

Example? 

paraphrasing: "quit?  who's talking about quitting?  we are leading in the national popular vote, and we just scored another 30 point win."  then he spun the VP question around as though hillary was considering BHO for veep.

 
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 07:12:32 PM
58% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 63%
Obama 33%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 07:15:49 PM
61% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 64%
Obama 32%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Lord Undies on May 20, 2008, 07:16:53 PM

terry mcauliffe was just on fox news basically taunting the life out of BHO. :-)

Example? 

paraphrasing: "quit?  who's talking about quitting?  we are leading in the national popular vote, and we just scored another 30 point win."  then he spun the VP question around as though hillary was considering BHO for veep.

 

I miss so much being tuned into Spongebob all day.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 07:17:49 PM

she's praising kennedy in her victory speech.  in fact, she's almost canonizing him.  pretty big of her, considering he turned on her in MA.

Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 07:21:31 PM
67% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 64%
Obama 31%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 07:28:18 PM
71% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 65%
Obama 31%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 07:30:41 PM
73% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 65%
Obama 31%
Edwards 2%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 07:37:00 PM
80% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 65%
Obama 31%
Edwards 2%

I think the fat lady behindstage is clearing her throat, getting ready to sing.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 07:44:12 PM
86% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 65%
Obama 31%
Edwards 2%

I think it's reasonable to be fairly confident Clinton won Kentucky, and so now I'm taking off for a bit, to walk the grounds and inspect the territory; I've been posting standing up.

I'll be back in time to cover the Oregon results, circa 10:00 p.m. central time, 9:00 p.m. mountain time.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Lord Undies on May 20, 2008, 07:47:34 PM
86% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 65%
Obama 31%
Edwards 2%

I think it's reasonable to be fairly confident Clinton won Kentucky, and so now I'm taking off for a bit, to walk the grounds and inspect the territory; I've been posting standing up.

I'll be back in time to cover the Oregon results, circa 10:00 p.m. central time, 9:00 p.m. mountain time.

It'll be 5:00 p.m. for you Hawaiian islanders. 
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 07:52:29 PM
Actually, now with 90% of Kentucky now in:

Clinton 65%
Obama 30%
Edwards 2%

I think the fat lady's moved to the front stage, and is warming up her throat now.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 07:55:02 PM

obama looks like he is going to carry the two university counties at 51 or 52%, and that's it.

wow.  BHO has been pretty well smoked in KY, OH, WVA, PA, IN, MI (yes, that one is debatable, I know), TN, AR . . .

um, how does BHO think he's going to get elected, again?

Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 07:56:48 PM
Actually, now with 90% of Kentucky now in:

Clinton 65%
Obama 30%
Edwards 2%

I think the fat lady's moved to the front stage, and is warming up her throat now.

she's singing.  a 35 point blowout.  yikes.  funny how the KY returns have come in so quickly and efficiently, and we sat up waiting for IN until 3 AM.



Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 08:41:49 PM
What to watch in Oregon returns later this evening:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10473.html

Quote
How quickly is the race called? Good news for the East Coast-based TV networks: Oregon, already three hours behind on Pacific Standard Time, isn’t expected to take long to count the mail-in ballots because of their electronic tabulating machines.

The ballot counting begins in the morning and the first unofficial results are released at 8:00 pm local time. They will continue to be updated until all the ballots have been counted. According to the Secretary of State’s office, 727,527 ballots had been returned through Sunday.

Be careful not to read too much into the early tabulations, which are likely to heavily favor Obama because they will come out of Portland and Multnomah County, said Paul Gronke, a Reed College political science professor.

Quote
The showing in the strongholds. Heavy voting in Portland and surrounding Multnomah County are a good sign for Obama. He is expected to beat Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin in this metropolitan area “full of young Democrats under the age of 35,” said William Lunch, a political analyst with Oregon State University.

Clinton needs to perform well in southern Oregon and east of the Cascade Mountains – areas that are considered more rural and conservative. Following the strategy followed in other states, that’s where Clinton sent her husband to campaign. Look to Bend’s Deschutes County, Medford’s Jackson County and Pendleton’s Umatilla County, experts said.

“If [Obama is] winning all of those, he’s going to roll up a big margin,” Hibbitts said.

Quote
How goes Marion County? The county, which is home to more than 300,000 residents and the state capitol of Salem, has yielded votes within 5 percentage points of the actual statewide primary results in 1988 and 2000 – the last elections with no incumbent president on the ballot. There is a mix of income levels in the area, from upscale liberals to blue collar workers.

Clinton needs to win this county by almost double digits if she has any hope of taking the state, said Lunch.

Quote
Follow the demography. Political observers expect women to comprise as much as 58 percent of the statewide vote. That would appear to be a promising sign for Clinton, but polls in Oregon have shown Obama leading among women voters.

West of Portland, Washington County will be a good gauge of suburban female voters. If Clinton has strength in the state other than in rural and small-town areas, she could find it in this county, said Wiener.

To test Obama’s support among blue-collar Democrats, look to heavily industrialized Albany in Linn County about 70 miles south of Portland, Hibbitts said.

Obama should do well in the blue-collar counties “relative to Ohio and Pennsylvania,” Hibbitts said. “I’m not saying he’s going to win those counties, but I think he may win some of them. He may win a significant number. And he won’t get beat 3-to-1 the way he did in Pennsylvania in some of those counties. Here, I think he’ll be very competitive, even in the places that he might lose.”

For a glimpse at the Hispanic vote, look to Woodburn in Marion County, where half of the 20,000 residents are Latino. Good advance work led Obama to eat lunch at a local Mexican restaurant there earlier this month.

To measure college activity, keep an eye on Corvallis in Benton County. Home to Oregon State University and high-tech workers at the major employer, Hewlett Packard, Obama should win the area by a 2-1 margin, Lunch said.

Quote
What's the turnout? With the presidential primary and closely contested Democratic primaries for U.S. Senate (the seat held by Republican Gordon Smith), attorney general and secretary of state, experts are predicting a "turnout" of 60 percent or more. In Oregon, which conducts elections by mail, the measure of turnout is actually the percentage of ballots returned.

“I think we’re going to have the highest Democratic primary here that we’ve had probably in 40 years and that was the Kennedy-McCarthy primary in ‘68,” Hibbitts said, “and that was really the last time Oregon actually mattered in presidential politics.”
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 08:43:46 PM

more KY exit poll tidbits.  clinton even won the student vote.  I was looking around the county by county vote;  hillary
won pike county on the WVA border 91-7.

Quote
Clinton won every age group, all income levels and both genders by large margins. Clinton won 55% of 17-29-year-olds who have regularly voted for Obama, as well as three-fourths of those 60 years and older. Clinton won three-fourths of white voters, who made up about 90% of the electorate. Church attendance had little to do with voter decision-making, as Clinton won two-thirds of church-goers, as well as two-thirds of non-church goers.

Clinton won at least 62% of all who describe themselves as either liberals, moderates or conservatives. Of the 86% who said the recession has affected them, Clinton won two-thirds. Nearly 60% of the electorate lives in rural areas, and Clinton won three-fourths of those voters. And like West Virginia, more than half of voters felt Obama shared the views of his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Clinton won 84% of those voters.

Most voters made up their minds well before either candidate campaigned in the state. More than 70% said they had decided their choice more than a month ago, and 68% of them chose Clinton.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 08:55:40 PM

LOL.  poor johnny edwards.  half of KYs voters thought that edward's endorsement was important,
and half of them voted for hillary. ouch.

Quote
Exit Polls: Did the Edwards endorsement make a difference?

(CNN) – Is John Edwards' recent endorsement of Barack Obama important? Forty-five percent of the voters in today's Kentucky's Democratic primary think so. But exit polls show they split their vote: 48 percent voted for Obama, and 47 percent for Clinton.

Fifty-two percent of today's voters in Kentucky say Edwards' endorsement of Obama was not important. They went overwhelmingly for Clinton: 81 to 14 percent.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 09:19:27 PM
Man, it's already 9:15 p.m. central time, 8:15 p.m. mountain time, meaning it's only 7:15 p.m. out in Oregon.

The posting should start about 8:00 p.m. in Oregon, about 45 minutes yet.

Damn, I hope I can stay up to it, but it appears the count's supposed to be pretty fast.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 09:23:57 PM
By the way, I just checked Kentucky, with 100% in, since I'm here anyway.

Quote
Clinton 65% 459,145 37 delegates won
Obama 30% 209,771 14 delegates won
Edwards 2% 14,187 0 delegates won
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 09:30:02 PM
With the Kentucky results in, the delegate count as of right now, before Oregon:

2,026 delegates needed to win the nomination; both elected delegates and superdelegates.

Obama now has 1,939 delegates (both kinds).

Clinton now has 1,758 delegates (both kinds).

Obama is still short 87, Clinton is still short 268, Clinton having gained on Obama by 23.

It COULD go down to Montana and South Dakota two weeks hence.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 09:30:11 PM
By the way, I just checked Kentucky, with 100% in, since I'm here anyway.

Quote
Clinton 65% 459,145 37 delegates won
Obama 30% 209,771 14 delegates won
Edwards 2% 14,187 0 delegates won

that gives him the majority of the pledged delegates, or right at it.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 09:32:27 PM
With the Kentucky results in, the delegate count as of right now, before Oregon:

2,026 delegates needed to win the nomination; both elected delegates and superdelegates.

Obama now has 1,939 delegates (both kinds).

Clinton now has 1,758 delegates (both kinds).

Obama is still short 87, Clinton is still short 268, Clinton having gained on Obama by 23.

It COULD go down to Montana and South Dakota two weeks hence.

Ooops, Oregon has only 58 delegates, so even if Obama were to take them all, he'd still be short.

Unless a whole slew of uncommitted superdelegates suddenly commit, it WILL go down to Montana and South Dakota.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 09:50:27 PM
Well now, here's a different delegate count.

http://news.aol.com/elections/primary/delegates/democrats

Quote
Needed to win 2,026

Obama 1,931, 95 short

Clinton 1,759, 267 short

Edwards 10, 2.016 short
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 10:01:57 PM
Well now, here's a different delegate count.

http://news.aol.com/elections/primary/delegates/democrats

Quote
Needed to win 2,026

Obama 1,931, 95 short

Clinton 1,759, 267 short

Edwards 10, 2.016 short

counting the dem delgates is notoriously imprecise;  some states have the most ridiculous and complicated rules imaginable.  I think most of what we are seeing called "delegate counts" are "best guess estimates".

(the dodgers haven't fallen behind 4 runs straight out of the chute tonight.  that's a relief)

Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 10:02:47 PM
Okay, Oregon's gearing up to release the numbers.

Stay tuned.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 10:06:55 PM
Oregon with 11% in now.

Clinton 37%
Obama 63%
Edwards 0%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 10:07:26 PM

7 minutes.  fox called OR for obama.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 10:12:37 PM
Oregon now with 16% in.

Clinton 39%
Obama 61%

No point in showing Edwards numbers.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 10:15:58 PM
Oregon now with 16% in.

Clinton 39%
Obama 61%

No point in showing Edwards numbers.

you posted something that indicated that obama would jump out to a big early lead;  looks like that much is absolutely true.

 
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 10:18:12 PM
Oregon now with 16% in.

Clinton 39%
Obama 61%

No point in showing Edwards numbers.

you posted something that indicated that obama would jump out to a big early lead;  looks like that much is absolutely true.

 

Yeah, the Democrat, liberal, and primitive bastions report first in Oregon, apparently.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 10:19:05 PM
Oregon now 25% in.

Clinton 40%
Obama 60%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 10:21:21 PM
Oregon now 30% in.

Clinton 40%
Obama 60%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 10:27:34 PM
Oregon now 39% in.

Clinton 41%
Obama 59%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 10:33:48 PM
Oregon now 40% in.

Clinton 41%
Obama 59%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 10:39:37 PM
Oregon now 44% in.

Clinton 42%
Obama 58%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 10:42:32 PM
Oregon now 48% in.

Clinton 43%
Obama 57%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 10:48:35 PM
Oregon now 50% in.

Clinton 42%
Obama 58%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 20, 2008, 10:49:17 PM

dr. nutz is getting 14% in WA. :whatever:
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 10:57:42 PM
Oregon now 51% in.

Clinton 42%
Obama 58%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 20, 2008, 11:09:36 PM
Oregon now with 52% in.

Clinton 42%
Obama 58%
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Baruch Menachem on May 21, 2008, 12:22:36 AM
Hillary did better than I thought she would.   But I live in Moonbat central, so I guess the rest of the state was more rational.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 21, 2008, 04:11:57 AM
Well, well, well.

Well, well.

At 4:00 a.m. central time, 3:00 a.m. mountain time, with ONLY 86% of Oregon now in:

Clinton 42%
Obama 58%

The news media and the primitives were touting the virtues of the Oregon polling system, all of its state-of-the-art stuff, promising faster results.

Well, it looks like the old-fashioned system as used by Kentucky was faster.

Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 21, 2008, 07:26:34 AM
Oregon now 88% in.

Clinton 42%
Obama 58%

I have a feeling I'm going to be posting updates here for some days yet.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 21, 2008, 01:52:36 PM
Oregon now 94% in.

Clinton 41%
Obama 59%

Damn, they count slow out there.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 21, 2008, 10:03:16 PM
Oregon now 99% in.

Man, they must count ballots using their fingers in Oregon.

Clinton 41%
Obama 59%

It looks like it's pretty much over now.

The Montana and South Dakota primaries are two weeks hence, on June 3, but I read somewhere that there's three primaries, not just two, left to go.  Anyone know the third one?
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Chris_ on May 21, 2008, 10:07:04 PM
Puerto Rico.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 22, 2008, 01:52:55 PM

KY is also the home of racists, along with WVA:

More racist, inbred, mountain people (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/one-last-kentuc.html)


Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: franksolich on May 22, 2008, 03:21:25 PM

KY is also the home of racists, along with WVA:

More racist, inbred, mountain people (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/one-last-kentuc.html)




In the "comments" section, some are asking a reasonable question.

If circa 90% of the white vote in that one county mentioned voted for Hillary Clinton is "racist," well, what does that make black-dominated inner cities voting circa 90% for Barry "Goldwater" Obama?

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Wretched Excess on May 22, 2008, 03:25:16 PM

KY is also the home of racists, along with WVA:

More racist, inbred, mountain people (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/one-last-kentuc.html)




In the "comments" section, some are asking a reasonable question.

If circa 90% of the white vote in that one county mentioned voted for Hillary Clinton is "racist," well, what does that make black-dominated inner cities voting circa 90% for Barry "Goldwater" Obama?

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

I just don't get it.   other than the operation chaos people, these are all good democrats.  how could any of them be racist or sexist?   :whatever:
Title: Re: Kentucky, Oregon primaries
Post by: Lord Undies on May 22, 2008, 03:28:02 PM

KY is also the home of racists, along with WVA:

More racist, inbred, mountain people (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/one-last-kentuc.html)




In the "comments" section, some are asking a reasonable question.

If circa 90% of the white vote in that one county mentioned voted for Hillary Clinton is "racist," well, what does that make black-dominated inner cities voting circa 90% for Barry "Goldwater" Obama?

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

I just don't get it.   other than the operation chaos people, these are all good democrats.  how could any of them be racist or sexist?   :whatever:

It took this King Solomon effort to get them to show their true faces.