The Conservative Cave
Current Events => Archives => Politics => Election 2008 => Topic started by: Wretched Excess on April 22, 2008, 10:51:54 PM
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hillary is winning the late deciders consistently now; I assume that means that The BarackStar! is
now a known commodity, and that is usually followed by a candidates peak, or "high water mark" . . . .
EXIT POLLS: Negative Campaign Tarnishes Clinton, Obama
Few Last-Minute Deciders in Pennsylvania Primary
The tough tone of the Pennsylvania Democratic campaign tarnished both candidates -- more so Hillary Clinton, with 67 percent of voters saying she attacked Barack Obama unfairly.
Yet it looks to have worked: Late deciders favored Clinton by a wide margin, boosting her to an essential victory in the state.
Late Deciders, Women Favor Clinton
Clinton beat Obama by 57-42 percent among voters who decided in the last few days, countering his equally large edge among those who picked their candidate between a week and a month ago. It was the sixth primary in a row in which she won late-choosing voters.
Other support groups were crucial for Clinton: Women accounted for 58 percent of voters, a record for Pennsylvania primaries (though about what it's been elsewhere this year), and she won them by 56-44 percent; she won white women even more broadly, by 64-36 percent.
Clinton again won seniors, this time by 60-39 percent. And she won voters who haven't been through college by a bigger-than-usual 57-43 percent margin.
Philly Shows Obama Love
Obama countered with enormous support in Philadelphia (70-30 percent over Clinton) and its suburbs (59-40 percent) and a 7-point better showing among white men, a swing group in these primaries, than he managed in Ohio, which Clinton won March 4.
Obama won men overall, 53-46 percent, and lost white men by a fairly narrow 7 points.
Obama also won 92 percent of African-Americans, nearly his best in any primary to date. But at 13 percent, their turnout was lower than the Pennsylvania primary record, 17 percent in 1988 and 1984.
In a difference from supposedly similar Ohio, 47 percent of Pennsylvania voters were college graduates -- a consistently better group for Obama -- compared with just 38 percent in Ohio. But he won them by only 5 points, compared to his 9-point advantage in this group in primaries to date.
And another difference strongly favored Clinton: White Catholics accounted for an unusually large share of voters -- 31 percent, vs. 16 percent in previous primaries this year -- and they favored her by a wide 70-30 percent, a gap that's appeared in some but not most previous contests.
One reason is that white Catholics in Pennsylvania were less apt to hold college degrees -- again reflecting Clinton's better showing among less-educated voters.
Bitter Race Damages Both Candidates
While two-thirds of voters said Clinton attacked Obama unfairly, fewer but 49 percent also said Obama unfairly attacked Clinton. Both were higher than in previous primaries overall -- by 15 points for Clinton and 11 for Obama -- reflecting the negative tone of the campaign's closing days.
However, voters who said Obama attacked unfairly were more apt to punish him for it -- Clinton won those voters by 65-34 percent; of those who said Clinton attacked unfairly, Obama won by a narrower 57-43 percent.
For many voters, moreover, it didn't matter; more than usual decided early.
Sixty-one percent said they picked their candidate more than a month ago, compared with 45 percent in previous primaries this year. Yet as noted, those who did decide late went for Clinton, breaking a near-draw among those who decided in the previous week.
These results are based on complete but unweighted exit poll data; the final numbers may change somewhat.
Much More (http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=4703379&page=1)
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From what I saw after about 80% it stayed at 55-45 like a freaking nail gun had nailed it into position.
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From what I saw after about 80% it stayed at 55-45 like a freaking nail gun had nailed it into position.
you're right. it didn't vary much from 55-45 all night.
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more exit poll numbers.
1 in 10 voters tuesday were party switchers, and they leaned obama (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hIfAwkkooVUzxAU-nYymJicF5kXwD9079GEG4), which would tend to explode the DUmmie's argument that hillary's margin is from crossing over republicans trying to cause mayhem.
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One reason is that white Catholics in Pennsylvania were less apt to hold college degrees -- again reflecting Clinton's better showing among less-educated voters.
This made me laugh. As if going to college makes someone "more educated". As if going to college is the only way to get more education after high school.
Some of the most educated people I have known never seen the inside of a high school. Some of the dumbest wackos I've known (who can't do math or compose a coherent sentence) hold masters degrees.
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I kind of giggled at this part: "Women favor Clinton". That's like 11 kinds of funny. :-)
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Exit polls. Yep. They're accurate. :whatever: :-)