Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211

[J P Sousa]

Why? PA is harder to win than OH because democrats out number republicans there. Romney is playing to win, not to look good. Id rather win for sure than get spread to thin and have Romney win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote. When voters shift its as a national group, Romney isnt going to be able to win PA if he doesnt win places like Ohio, NH and Iowa.

First; My observation is strictly from people we meet in business. Our business is in a VERY democrat area just outside Philly. Those who volunteer political opinions have no use for Obama. They may not vote for Romney but they are not voting for Obama.

Second; There are NO Obama signs AT ALL. This by itself is very unusual. I cannot remember a time where NO democrat signs appeared in my area. This alone tells me somethings going on here.

ALSO, the ONLY signs I see are for republicans and there are far more than ever before seen here.

Granted this is from August but things are moving toward Romney;

It appears unlikely that African-Americans and young voters, who powered Mr. Obama's big margins in 2008, will come out in the same numbers that they did last time around; a Pew Research Center last month found that, nationally, 60 percent of younger voters are giving a lot of thought to the election, a drop from 71 percent in 2008.

  A drop in voter enthusiasm in places like Philadelphia County - which is 44 percent African-American - puts the state's 20 electoral votes very much in play. 

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57473310-503544/to-win-pennsylvania-obama-needs-more-than-just-philly/

Then there is this;
http://articles.philly.com/2012-10-15/news/34449782_1_inquirer-poll-realclearpolitics-com-susquehanna-polling
.

[BattleHymn]

RCP is just based on polls. I have no idea why North Dakota and Texas are on there as both of their RCP poll average is Romney +18. But South Dakota and South Carolina havent even had polls done in 2012 so they just put likely Romney. The same reason Karl Rove had SC as a toss up until October because there were no polls, he finally just gave up and made it solid Romney.

Bad polls, some of them.  When you expect D+ turnout at or above 2008, that's a red flag. 

[BigTex]

First; My observation is strictly from people we meet in business. Our business is in a VERY democrat area just outside Philly. Those who volunteer political opinions have no use for Obama. They may not vote for Romney but they are not voting for Obama.

Second; There are NO Obama signs AT ALL. This by itself is very unusual. I cannot remember a time where NO democrat signs appeared in my area. This alone tells me somethings going on here.

ALSO, the ONLY signs I see are for republicans and there are far more than ever before seen here.

Granted this is from August but things are moving toward Romney;
Then there is this;
http://articles.philly.com/2012-10-15/news/34449782_1_inquirer-poll-realclearpolitics-com-susquehanna-polling
.

But still if Romney were to win PA then he would have won Ohio and Ohio is whats it all about. If Romney wins Ohio its over, so there's no reason to go for PA. Its like in football if a team is on the 2 yard line with 3 seconds left and all they need is a FG to win, there is no point to go for the TD.

[BigTex]

Bad polls, some of them.  When you expect D+ turnout at or above 2008, that's a red flag. 

Thats true. I wonder if the polls are just using the results they get or weighting them though. I think on a state level basis its impossible to predict the turnout. In 2004 republicans had turnout advantages in every swing state and the opposite in 2008.

[BattleHymn]

Thats true. I wonder if the polls are just using the results they get or weighting them though. I think on a state level basis its impossible to predict the turnout. In 2004 republicans had turnout advantages in every swing state and the opposite in 2008.

The only pollster that I am aware of that does not weight is Gallup. 

[Lacarnut]

But still if Romney were to win PA then he would have won Ohio and Ohio is whats it all about. If Romney wins Ohio its over, so there's no reason to go for PA. Its like in football if a team is on the 2 yard line with 3 seconds left and all they need is a FG to win, there is no point to go for the TD.

It's like football alright. If Romney runs the table in PA, NH, NC, VA and FL which I expect him to do, the ball game is over because those are states Obama won in 08. Ohio will be icing on the cake. In other words, Romney does NOT have to win Ohio to win the election.

[BigTex]

It's like football alright. If Romney runs the table in PA, NH, NC, VA and FL which I expect him to do, the ball game is over because those are states Obama won in 08. Ohio will be icing on the cake. In other words, Romney does NOT have to win Ohio to win the election.

Wrong, he does have to. He cant win PA without winning Ohio.

hes the average electorate from 04 and 08 in Ohio and PA

Ohio: 35.5% GOP 34.5% Dem
PA: 42.5% Dem, 38% GOP

[Lacarnut]

Wrong, he does have to. He cant win PA without winning Ohio.

hes the average electorate from 04 and 08 in Ohio and PA

Ohio: 35.5% GOP 34.5% Dem
PA: 42.5% Dem, 38% GOP

You are WRONG. Scott R. said a few min. ago that Romney has to win either WI or OH. So he can win WI and lose OH and still win the election. I don't think you have the expertise as he does.

[BigTex]

You are WRONG. Scott R. said a few min. ago that Romney has to win either WI or OH. So he can win WI and lose OH and still win the election. I don't think you have the expertise as he does.

You come to the same problem as PA where you cant win WI (also need IA or NH in that scenario) without winning Ohio. So yes it can happen theoretically but the demographics dont play out like that which is why neither campaign is spending the money in PA or WI and dumping a ton into Ohio. and Im sure the campaigns know the numbers and demographics better then you, me or Rasmussen

[NHSparky]

Uh, I'm pretty sure Rasmussen knows the demos better than just about anyone, considering he's been pretty much dead-nuts on in the last three presidential elections.

[BigTex]

Uh, I'm pretty sure Rasmussen knows the demos better than just about anyone, considering he's been pretty much dead-nuts on in the last three presidential elections.

well I guess Rasmussen is nut-less after being so far off in 2010 then 

youre right though Rasmussen is better than "just about" anyone but the Romney and Obama campaigns fallout side of that category. Which is why Im basing my opinion on them and not Rasmussen.

[NHSparky]

well I guess Rasmussen is nut-less after being so far off in 2010 then 

youre right though Rasmussen is better than "just about" anyone but the Romney and Obama campaigns fallout side of that category. Which is why Im basing my opinion on them and not Rasmussen.

Then you won't mind showing me where he was so far off then, won't you?

[BigTex]

Then you won't mind showing me where he was so far off then, won't you?

Why is that old man? Sill havent figured out how to use google? maybe one day

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

[NHSparky]

Why is that old man? Sill havent figured out how to use google? maybe one day

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

RCP?  Seriously?  That Jackson Pollock mish-mash of, "Hey, let's throw everything against the wall just to see the shit that sticks!" 

You realize RCP is an AVERAGE of ALL the polls out there, regardless of how accurate or inaccurate they are, right "boy"?

Any ****stick can use Google.  It takes someone with a bit of a brain to find the gold nuggets buried beneath all your bullshit.

Now go fetch your ****ing shine box.

[BigTex]

You realize RCP is an AVERAGE of ALL the polls out there, regardless of how accurate or inaccurate they are, right "boy"?

Maybe you should have actually looked at the link. It shows the final Rasmussen poll, the actual vote tally and how far off he was. I guess that what happens when you think you know everything, no need for google or clicking on links.

[J P Sousa]

Although the sitting U.S. President's party usually loses seats in a midterm election, the 2010 election resulted in the highest loss of a party in a House midterm election since 1938.[   

He was not off at all. 
.

[NHSparky]

Maybe you should have actually looked at the link. It shows the final Rasmussen poll, the actual vote tally and how far off he was. I guess that what happens when you think you know everything, no need for google or clicking on links.

And maybe you should have pulled your head out of your ass long enough to read where I said "last three PRESIDENTIAL elections" scooter. Last time I checked, 2010 was a midterm election, not a presidential one.

Now go fetch your ****ing shine box.

[BEG]

And maybe you should have pulled your head out of your ass long enough to read where I said "last three PRESIDENTIAL elections" scooter. Last time I checked, 2010 was a midterm election, not a presidential one.

Now go fetch your ****ing shine box.

 

[Tucker]

I expect to see some movement in the polls this week. Hopefully Romney will open up a 7+ point lead.

I do watch the RCP numbers but only pay attention to the larger polls. You will see a state where Romney is ahead by 1 point. If you look at the poll numbers, you will see Rasmussen or Gallop showing Romney ahead by 5 and then some podunk poll showing obama by 5 and that will bring the average down.

If you really want to see some off the wall poll numbers, look at Politics 2012 at the DUmp. They search high and low to find any poll showing obama in front.

[franksolich]

If you really want to see some off the wall poll numbers, look at Politics 2012 at the DUmp. They search high and low to find any poll showing obama in front.

I didn't bother looking today, but I'm sure that Baghdad Bob, the "Prosense" primitive, has posted some showing Barack Milhous leading in Florida 82%-16% or in Ohio 92%-6%.

Baghdad Bob always finds the most interesting polls.

[Lacarnut]

And maybe you should have pulled your head out of your ass long enough to read where I said "last three PRESIDENTIAL elections" scooter. Last time I checked, 2010 was a midterm election, not a presidential one.

Now go fetch your ****ing shine box.

Big Tex knows less about about politicial elections as he does about NFL QB's.

[NHSparky]

Yeah, yeah, I've heard that one too...but I still love Goodfellas:

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6U57uPKnNs[/youtube]

[Cruise]

I expect to see some movement in the polls this week. Hopefully Romney will open up a 7+ point lead.

I do watch the RCP numbers but only pay attention to the larger polls. You will see a state where Romney is ahead by 1 point. If you look at the poll numbers, you will see Rasmussen or Gallop showing Romney ahead by 5 and then some podunk poll showing obama by 5 and that will bring the average down.

If you really want to see some off the wall poll numbers, look at Politics 2012 at the DUmp. They search high and low to find any poll showing obama in front.

The hurricane will disrupt polling for a few days.  There simply won't be enough days after that for these bad days to roll off.  Ignore what you see from here on.

[Kyle Ricky]

The hurricane will disrupt polling for a few days.  There simply won't be enough days after that for these bad days to roll off.  Ignore what you see from here on.

They might not be able to find enough Dems to push obama in to the winning bracket. So they will hold off for a while.

[BigTex]

And maybe you should have pulled your head out of your ass long enough to read where I said "last three PRESIDENTIAL elections" scooter. Last time I checked, 2010 was a midterm election, not a presidential one.

Now go fetch your ****ing shine box.

and maybe you should have read that I acknowledged that Rasmussen was one of the best pollster but the the campaigns know more about the numbers than the pollsters

now go fetch your ****ing colostomy bag because the shit is coming up out of your mouth