Author Topic: Walker likely to win WI, but it's not representative of the November election.  (Read 1303 times)

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Offline Freeper

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TheWraith (23,735 posts)

 
Nate Silver: Walker likely to win WI, but it's not representative of the November election.

This is via Twitter.

If we put Walker's lead in WI polls into our forecasting model, it would give him about a 95% chance of beating Barrett.

Time to get out of the primary elections mindset, folks. A 6-point polling lead on the eve of a GENERAL election is very solid.

And/but, I don't really think WI will tell us much about November. The same polls that have Walker ahead have Obama winning too.


http://twitter.com/#!/fivethirtyeight

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002764264

Didn't they do this with Scott Brown in MA? They were saying that if he lost it would reflect the election in 2010, but if he won then it had nothing to do with the 2010 election.

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Scuba (17,485 posts)
1. Nate Silver tweeted that? While we're screwed then, that's it.

By the way, WTF is Nate Silver? How many days has he spent in Wisconsin in the last 16 months?

I had no idea who he was either.

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RZM (6,570 posts)
3. Nate Silver is a stats guru who actually got his start with baseball stats

Last edited Mon Jun 4, 2012, 05:40 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

But has since moved on to predicting political races. He's not always right, but he has a pretty good track record. This doesn't mean that Walker has it in the bank, only that a man who crunches these types of numbers all day long believes he is likely to win.

The DUmmies are scared shitless of how tomorrow will shape up. I am so tempted to out my mole tomorrow night after Walker wins.  :rotf:
I may not lock my doors while sitting at a red light and a black man is near, but I sure as hell grab on tight to my wallet when any democrats are close by.

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Offline JohnnyReb

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"...and I'll take Charlie Browns words after Lucy snatches the football away for $800, Alex."
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Offline jukin

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A Walker win by 7+ will put a lot of piss in the DUches' cornflakes.  A double digit win will scare the rest of 0bama's big donors. I sense a further austerity program for "The Destroyer" and his campaign funding.  The good think is that Obama is burning through the cash like it's taxpayer's dough.
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Offline Skul

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I thought a few short weeks ago, it was the harbinger of doom for Repukes?
What happened there, DUmpmonkeys?  :???:
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Offline Bad Dog

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What the heck is the name of that river in Egypt?

Offline Freeper

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What the heck is the name of that river in Egypt?

The Red Sea? :d
I may not lock my doors while sitting at a red light and a black man is near, but I sure as hell grab on tight to my wallet when any democrats are close by.

Offline Skul

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Response to HereSince1628 (Reply #5)
Mon Jun 4, 2012, 05:44 PM
 Scuba (17,488 posts)
6. Most polls are designed to shape opinion, not measure it.
Unless it's an "exit poll" and it's in your favor, right?
Care for some cheese?  :lmao:
Then-Chief Justice John Marshall observed, “Between a balanced republic and a democracy, the difference is like that between order and chaos.”

John Adams warned in a letter, “Remember democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet, that did not commit suicide.”

Offline Delmar

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Walker likely to win?

DUmmies, Walker is going to stomp a mud puddle in Barrett's ass and walk it dry.  Rebecca Kleefisch is going to crush Mahlon Mitchell.  And it is going to be representative of the November election because your dirty friends in Madison are going to do something stupid on Wednesday or maybe even late Tuesday night when they find out they've lost--they won't be able to help themselves, it's in their nature.  They are going to turn public opinion against them even further.  This state and this country are going to be so sick of hippies, socialists, union thugs, and any other kind of democrat you can think of by November that we are going to vote in the clean cut Romney in a landslide
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Offline Ballygrl

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From 2010, if the Democrats keep the House it's a referendum on Obama, if the Republicans take the House it's not a referendum on Obama.
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Offline Revolution

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Walker likely to win?

DUmmies, Walker is going to stomp a mud puddle in Barrett's ass and walk it dry.  Rebecca Kleefisch is going to crush Mahlon Mitchell.  And it is going to be representative of the November election because your dirty friends in Madison are going to do something stupid on Wednesday or maybe even late Tuesday night when they find out they've lost--they won't be able to help themselves, it's in their nature.  They are going to turn public opinion against them even further.  This state and this country are going to be so sick of hippies, socialists, union thugs, and any other kind of democrat you can think of by November that we are going to vote in the clean cut Romney in a landslide.  

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ib-BSnF7dlo[/youtube]

Guess which one is Barrett. Go ahead, guess... :-)

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Offline miskie

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..And Intrade hasn't budged since this morning .. +-94 out of 100 on a Walker win. Seems these race-tightening polls aren't being bought by anyone but the primitives.

Offline USA4ME

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The beauty of this whole thing is that the primtives can't fully understand the position that the majority of us as conservatives at CC take on this whole Walker recall thing.

No matter where the primitives live, whether it be in Wisconsin, another state, or in another country, they are fully vested in this Walker election.  Even primitives that aren't citizens of the USA are fully vested.

As a conservative US citizen living in NC, I cannot vote in the Wisconsin election.  If Walker wins, he wins, and if he loses, he loses.

Having said that, I do realize that how other states decide on certain issues or candidates can affect others and other events.  But for the most part, this is a Wisconsin thing.

Bottom line is I have no vote in the matter.  Being in this postion, however, permits me to sit back and observe the primitives and to laugh at their individual and collective stupidity.  That is way above their ability to understand.

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Offline lars1701c

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I bet you a dollar if Walker losses they will then say IT IS representative of the Nov elections
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Don't tell this to Debbie Wasserman-Shithead. According to her it's a test run, so she might not be happy to hear it.
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