I don't see any reason to expect an outcome any different from 2008.
From our side, his awful performance may increase the desire to vote him out, but his opposition is going to be split between those who win a brutal fight for the nomination and those who refuse to support the party's nominee. It's almost certain that half the party will call the nominee either a "RINO" or an "extremist", and that's likely to be fatal.
On the democrat side, his base is unaffected by unemployment, their government checks haven't been reduced by a dime, and he's just as black as he was in 2008. Winnah.
I only hope that not too many repuke candidates for Senate and House get swamped in the black tidal wave.
Don't see it happening.......
I see a "perfect storm" coming........and I think that DAT is correct about the minority vote. The key is the "Independents" and he lost most of them a while back, and there is little chance he'll regain them. Those that thought it would be "cool" to elect a black president are now high on the unemployment list, and gas is still breaking toward four bucks a gallon. They can't sell their houses, and if they have any savings they've been decimated.
There are factors at play that were absent in 2008....the "Tea Party" for example, has gone from nothing to a real force in politics. SCOTUS has eliminated the restrictions on corporate support of candidates, and the incumbent is inarguably the most anti-business president in the past century. Republicans control a lot more state governorships, SoS positions, and legislatures than they have in 50 years, which with voter ID laws, repressing illegals, and redistricting will all have subtle benefits.
And then there is Obamacare.....which has pissed off about 60% of the electorate.......and becoming more unpopular every week, as a new revelation is disclosed.....
All we need is a candidate that can win......and based on what I see right now,
Perry is that guy. I'd love to see Bachmann in the lead, but I don't see it happening, Cain can't articulate a foreign policy coherently (although I know he's popular here), he simply doesn't have any greater chance than Ron Paul.....Nada. Gingrich, Paulenty, and Santorum will all be out after New Hampshire.........
Obama only won by 4%, and a number of the key electoral states have taken a huge right turn in 2010. Unless the Republicans screw up badly, it's their election to lose.
As I mentioned in another thread, the WH is in a huge panic, because their internal polling is showing them that they can't possibly win, based on today's circumstances. Although it's a "political eternity" until next November, many of the factors cited above aren't going to change radically......."it's the economy stupid"......that will determine the outcome.
doc