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Offline Freeper

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Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think
« on: July 10, 2011, 11:15:32 AM »
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marmar Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list    Sun Jul-10-11 10:55 AM
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Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think   Updated at 11:53 AM
   

from Mother Jones:




Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think

— By Kevin Drum
| Fri Jul. 8, 2011 2:55 AM PDT


While I was on vacation last week I took a side trip to New Haven to visit Jeff Park, an old high school friend who's now a geology professor at Yale. We ate some pizza at Frank Pepe, walked around the campus a bit, and then dropped by his office, where he had a stack of reprints of his latest journal article. Take one, he said. Maybe it'll be good fodder for the blog.

The title is a mouthful: "Geologic constraints on the glacial amplification of Phanerozoic climate sensitivity," coauthored with Dana Royer. (The Phanerozoic, in case it's slipped your mind, is the geologic eon spanning approximately the last 500 million years.) Roughly speaking, the article is an updated look at a computer model that estimates how much climate reacts to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The model originally concluded that a doubling of CO2 produces a temperature increase just under three degrees Celsius, an estimate that's in pretty good agreement with other models. So far, so good. But 500 million years is a long time, and several researchers have proposed that climate sensitivity might vary over that period depending on whether or not the earth is in an ice age. So in the new paper, the authors modeled glacial and non-glacial eras separately. And the best fit with the data suggests that climate sensitivity does indeed change depending on glaciation. In fact, during an ice age, the most probable climate sensitivity is six to eight degrees Celsius for a doubling of CO2, more than twice the previous estimate.

Why do we care? As the authors drily put it, "Because the human species lives in a glacial interval of Earth history, this modeling result has more than academic interest." You see, the most recent ice age in human history is the one that started about 30 million years ago and continues to the present day. We're living through a glacial interval right now, and that means that a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere might produce a temperature increase of six to eight degrees Celsius, not the mere three degrees Celsius most commonly estimated. ............(more)

The complete piece is at: http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/07/climate-chang...




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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list    Sun Jul-10-11 11:29 AM
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2. Good thing we are doing ****ALL about it.
   
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The Doctor. Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list    Sun Jul-10-11 11:54 AM
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3. The problem with trying to explain this to the morons
   
is that they simply picture the temperature going up by a few degrees across the board. They can't wrap their pointy little heads around the 'Heat=Energy' concept.

I deal with a few such idiots on a regular basis.

Funny I haven't seen this posted at DUmmyland,
Coal-burning China's rapid growth may have HALTED global warming

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2011297/Coal-burning-China-cools-planet.html#ixzz1RigHTHPo

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But it is thought temperatures will rise again now China is tackling air pollution by installing equipment to scrub out sulphur particles.


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Offline Ballygrl

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Re: Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think
« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2011, 11:45:54 AM »
It's the height of arrogance to think that we, regular men and women, have the ability to even compete with Mother Nature yet alone destroy it.
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2011, 12:04:46 PM »
I accept that it is theoretically quite possible for human activity to affect climate.  I do not accept that the climatologists and tangentially-related fields like geologists know enough about the system to make reliable, predictive models of it.
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Offline jukin

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Re: Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2011, 01:18:07 PM »
Climate Change HYPE: Still Worse Than You Think
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Offline compaqxp

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Re: Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2011, 01:52:23 PM »
Quote from: DumbAss Tanker on July 10, 2011, 12:04:46 PM
I accept that it is theoretically quite possible for human activity to affect climate.  I do not accept that the climatologists and tangentially-related fields like geologists know enough about the system to make reliable, predictive models of it.

I can't argue with this, I think you've got it right.

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Offline ReaganForRushmore

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Re: Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2011, 01:55:49 PM »
So the Geico caveman was driving a carbon spewing SUV why hunting Masadons?
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2011, 05:12:47 PM »
Quote from: ReaganForRushmore on July 10, 2011, 01:55:49 PM
So the Geico caveman was driving a carbon spewing SUV why hunting Masadons?

With Han Solo's blaster, even!
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Offline diesel driver

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Re: Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2011, 07:53:20 PM »
Current CO2 content of the atmosphere is about 400 ppm, or .04%.

Humans contribute about 3% of the total CO2 emissions, or about 12 ppm, or .0012%

Yeah, we are SO destroying the planet!   :mental:
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Global warming supporters believe that a few hundred million tons of CO2 has more control over our climate than a million mile in diameter, unshielded thermo-nuclear fusion reactor at the middle of the solar system.

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Offline Freeper

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Re: Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2011, 08:40:32 PM »
Quote from: diesel driver on July 10, 2011, 07:53:20 PM
Current CO2 content of the atmosphere is about 400 ppm, or .04%.

Humans contribute about 3% of the total CO2 emissions, or about 12 ppm, or .0012%

Yeah, we are SO destroying the planet!   :mental:

Yep 12 is bigger than 4 so it must be us humans.  :-)
I figure if 1+1= potato (or tater in the south) then that math is just as accurate.  :lmao:
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Offline Evil_Conservative

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Re: Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think
« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2011, 09:19:29 PM »
If global warming was real, I wouldn't be watching Ice Road Truckers right now.
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Offline Wineslob

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Re: Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2011, 01:00:30 PM »
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"Because the human species lives in a glacial interval of Earth history, this modeling result has more than academic interest." You see, the most recent ice age in human history is the one that started about 30 million years ago



Epic fail, DUmmies.



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Offline DLR Pyro

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Re: Climate Change: Still Worse Than You Think
« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2011, 01:40:48 PM »
 :runaway:  :panic: :ohnoes:

another "we're all doomed unless we do something, anything, right now" thread.  This shit is getting old...
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