The rythm of revolution... nadinbrzezinski

[CC27]

nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list    Fri Feb-11-11 06:10 PM
Original message
The rythm of revolution...
   
we seem to be in something different than the usual. We seem to have a "virus" spreading across the middle east. Whther it is the successful revolution in Egypt (we will need to wait for the hard work to bear fruit now), or the demonstrations in Yemen, Amman, or for that matter a call to a national strike in Tel Aviv. Regardless, we are seeing something new.

So here is the deal. Revolutions have a predictable rhythm to them. As long as you know it, well it is pretty easy to see when markers have been crossed. It does not matter if these are historic revolutions or right NOW in your TV.

The first important point is when the people (insert people here), lose any and all fear of the securiy apparatus. Realize that it does not matter if this is the modern security services in Egypt, or the King's service in France, they are scary in their own way. They are there to keep the lid down, and as long as the people are afraid, they succeed. When they lose is when the people realize that in numbers they can do this. The fear caused by the state ends when the people realize that yes WE CAN overcome this.

That is the first and most critical stage. Why it happens... yes even that has a reason. Usually lousy economy, no more where to fall, and simmering anger that has been building for a long time. In the case of France... it was about fifteen years (in 1789), in Egypt it was thirty years, but the last ten were particularly bad.

Now can a revolution (regardless of what you thihk about them) happen here? Yes... if the situation is right. In reality we are not the point where we are that desperate, nor have we completely lost our ahem respect for our government, and we still have ways for the pot to simmer over, But pay attention to the dynamic. Once you loose that fear it is not automatic. Victory really depends on quite predictable things. They include the leader losing support from the power structure that keeps him in place. For Nixon, yes indeed that was a small revolt, it was the threat of Impeachment... and the right has yet to forgive the rest of the contry for that. For mubarak and his counterparts in both Tunis and Indonesia was the lost of the military. Whether this was an outright loss from Gneeral officers, or they followed their Juniors due to mutiny, is up to historians to figure out, In the case of Egypt apparently mid level officers of the Third Army refused to obey orders, That is called mutiny, unless of course you win. So in effect, good luck facing the crowds sir... ALONE, became operative.

In other cases it's been the secret police... and for the USSR, soldiers who were married to all procedures and who had not been paid for three months paralyzed them.

Now at the end, when leaders are close to stepping down, there are times when violence and threats of violence needs to be used. After all, these people BELIEVE the people love them. They cannot understand that they stopped respecting them a while ago. So in the end there is a violent stage, where you may see it quite public, like when Caucescu faced a firing squad, quite private where nothing more than a threat, a real threat is used. That is what we "saw" over the last 12 hours after the dear leader refused to go, and he had to be coaxed out. It is part of the dynamic.

Now will there be losers? Yes... will there be winners, yes... but now we enter the completion stage. This is the point where the vacuum will be filled. If we are lucky, or actually the Egyptians are, the military will take power for six months, and then relinquish it after elections. The hard work now starts...

And now we wait to see where ELSE this flu spreads to.

You have a virus in your mouth. Shut up for once.


 

cali (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list    Fri Feb-11-11 06:28 PM
Response to Original message
5. people don't lose their fear of the security apparatus
   
that's absurd. it's that something stronger than their fear compels them to stand up in the face of said security apparatus- injustice for example.

another oh so above it all lecture from NB.

Talk about predictable.

It's a trend. A trend, I tell you.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x399115

[JohnnyReb]

If the Egyptian army had started firing on that crowd, there wouldn't have been a brave soul in sight in less than 30 seconds.

The DUmmies will clear out in even less time.

[zeitgeist]

And this is the headline I just saw:

Analysis: Military coup was behind Mubarak's exit
This is not what the dummies are longing to hear.

Link to Coup d'etat story here:   http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110211/ap_on_an/ml_egypt_the_coup_analysis

[Traveshamockery]

It is way past time for the self-appointed Mideast expert at the DUmp to STFU.  It's actually refreshing to see the other DUmmies telling her the same thing. 

What a freaking moron she is. 

[GOBUCKS]

The rythm of revolution

The smartest person in the history of the human race spells like greenbriar.
Is she actually stupid, or is she just trying to make the DUmmies feel comfortable?

[Carl]

The smartest person in the history of the human race spells like greenbriar.
Is she actually stupid, or is she just trying to make the DUmmies feel comfortable?

I vote for stupid.

[Ballygrl]

The rythm of revolution...

She spelled rhythm wrong.

[BlueStateSaint]

I vote for stupid.

H5, and total agreement.

[Ballygrl]

Oooops, just noticed GOBUCKS pointed that out.

[SSG Snuggle Bunny]

The rythm of revolution...

Isn't that a Gloria Estefan song?

[Chris_]

She's a regular Paul Revere.

[AllosaursRus]

So here is the deal. Revolutions have a predictable rhythm to them. As long as you know it, well it is pretty easy to see when markers have been crossed

NumbSkullBrainInsky, I'm sure your brethren were just waitin' with baited breath to know they couldn't figure this out without "Wile E Coyote", lettin' 'em know what was happenin'!

You're so full of yourself, there ain't no more room for any additional "kool aid", so how do ya expect the DUmmies to be able to drink any more?

Ya keep this up, and they're all gonna drown!

The smartest person in the history of the human race spells like greenbriar.
Is she actually stupid, or is she just trying to make the DUmmies feel comfortable?

She supposedly was the author of some RPG. Wonder how many times they had to debug it before it actually worked?