I beleive Democrats will overperform the polls this year

[CC27]

Pototan (1,690 posts)

I beleive Democrats will overperform the polls this year
There is conventional wisdom among many political pundits and angst among a lot of Democrats that Trump always overperforms his polls in the final election. This conclusion comes from the final results in 2016 and 2020.

In 2016, Hillary came off a bruising and lengthy primary contest with Bernie Sanders. There were some hard feelings that reduced enthusiasm and the ground game. But Hillary still could have won, if not for James Comey's late letter reopening the email case against Ms. Clinton. This release coincided with early voting in most states, and his retraction later was too little, too late. The letter did not drive voters to Trump, but many traditional Democrats voted third party.

In 2020, the voter divide was huge. Democrats were cautious about Covid. That's why absentee voting was through the roof on the Democrats side. But that caution reduced the effect of a superior ground game. Going to a person's door, driving them to early voting or on election day, was hampered. On the other hand, the Trump voters were fearless (some would say reckless). They were told by their hero that the whole thing was a hoax. They voted on election day. They didn't have or need a ground game. If not for Covid, I believe the polls would have been correct and Biden would have won by 6 or 7 points, resulting in an electoral college landslide and safe margins in the swing states.

Now, to 2024. We have a candidate with little to no baggage. Unlike Hillary, Kamala has not been unfairly maligned for 25 years. There is no manufactured scandal and there was no bruising primary. There is no fear of meeting people in person. There is an abundance of resources, including money, infrastructure and volunteers. And the enthusiasm is palpable. Trump. on the other hand, has already underperformed in the primaries. 20% of Republicans and Independents who participated in the Republican primaries voted for a candidate who dropped out, rather than for Trump. His crowds are smaller. The rallies fewer. And the Trump schtick is getting rather boring. The Republican party, at the state level, is hollowed out. His resources have been redirected to his legal expenses and there is little to no ground game.

Democrats have to work our asses off in the 7 swing states that really matter. But I believe we have the troops, the resources and the enthusiasm to overperform the polls by 2 or 3 points Nationally and in each swing state.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219417227

Learn how to spell believe first.

[enslaved1]

Of course they will.  I'll wager there will be several counties, cities, and maybe even states where there are more Democrat votes then are residents.  Sounds like over-performance to me. 

[SVPete]

[Old n Grumpy]

There is no fear of meeting people in person. There is an abundance of resources, including money, infrastructure and volunteers. And the enthusiasm is palpable. Trump. on the other hand, has already underperformed in the primaries. 20% of Republicans and Independents who participated in the Republican primaries voted for a candidate who dropped out, rather than for Trump. His crowds are smaller. The rallies fewer. And the Trump schtick is getting rather boring.

I like where it says she has no fear of meeting people. That’s true as long as all she has to do is walk by, waving and kackling. She won’t talk to reporters or answer any questions.

First I don’t see harris holding rallies, specially ones the size of Trumps, and as far as crowd size he still brings them in by the thousands.

[SVPete]

We have a candidate with little to no baggage. ...

Do-nothing Border Czar ... cover Joe's dotage ... flip-flopping her 2020 primary campaign positions ... suppressing Planned Parenthood didn't want the public to see/know ...

There is no manufactured scandal and there was no bruising primary. ...

Kammies scandals are real (see above), no need to "manufacture" any.

Throwing out 10s of millions of Dem primary votes was certainly "Bruising", but to Dem voters, not Kammie.

There is no fear of meeting people in person. ...

Canned telepromptered speeches at rallies is not "meeting people in person".

FIFY:

Democrats exploited and lied about Covid.

For DU-Folk interested in what actually was done and said in the early months of Covid:

https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,412821.0.html

https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,412484.0.html

https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,412485.0.html

[Texacon]

20% of Republicans and Independents who participated in the Republican primaries voted for a candidate who dropped out, rather than for Trump.

How many of them voted against Kamala during the primary?  Oh, that's right, she wasn't on the ballot to vote for.

KC

[SVPete]

20% of Republicans and Independents who participated in the Republican primaries voted for a candidate who dropped out, rather than for Trump.

1. How many of those "Republicans" and "Independents" were actually Dems who re-registered so as to mess with the R primaries and voters?

2. In R primaries I voted for someone other than the eventual nominee in 1996, 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2016, but still voted for the R nominee against Bill, OhBummer!, and The Chill.

[CollectivismMustDie]

Dems are overperforming in the polls, because theyre being oversampled.

[ADsOutburst]

And the Trump schtick is getting rather boring.

The democrats’ shtick of “something, something, DEMOCRACY!” has been boring for like, three or four years.