LdB: This! This! This all day long. Without comment

[dutch508]

Star Member LaydeeBug (10,024 posts) https://www.democraticunderground.com/10029126212

This! This! This all day long. Without comment

What is the bug all freaked out about?

well... this:

(((Huxenstein))) @BethGoldHux
@vibrantSun44 @ScottFairbairn1 @montanamissoula @TrueFactsStated I'm a Math teacher. Prob Trump would win all 5 swing states was .0016, 16 ten thousandths of 1%. Putin hacked more than just emails.

 

Star Member oasis (31,614 posts)
1. Putin with help from his friends in Trump Tower.

We're finding out more and more daily.

ProudLib72 (2,179 posts)
2. But math is science and science is sorcery.

It was God's will that tRump became president. 

I can't believe I am saying this, but I imagine it to be exactly what the deplorables believe.

No.. Republicans are saying 'What's the Evidence? Where is the proof? Wishes and Hoping does not a case make, DUmpmonkiez!"

Star Member malaise (156,586 posts)
3. Stolen

We know that

TheDebbieDee (10,024 posts)
4. I believe the vote counts were flipped in some of the states

that use wifi/internet to aggregate and tabulate votes... The FBI may be investigating that, too before this Trump/Russia thing is all over...

And guess what? We don't know WHO might try to meddle with the vote totals in 2018...

Star Member SCantiGOP (5,469 posts)
5. A math teacher

Sure can't argue that's not an authoritative source.
Posts like this make the entire forum look like a conspiracy site.

 

american_ideals (99 posts)
10. Yes-wrong. Statistician here. Problem is polls may have been flawed.

The probability calculations are invalid unless the poll numbers were accurate reflections of the way people would vote.
And we know one trick of the GOP was to tell their voters to lie to pollsters (to lull HRC voters into a false sense of security so they'd be ok staying home.)

Under that assumption this calculation is wrong.

p.s. I believe the data-driven GOP (plus potentially russian) voter suppression campaign, plus Chaffetz's illegal leak of Comey's letter, plus cross-check and minority voter suppression all led to a stolen election. I just don't believe these data support the conclusion the vote was irregular.

Star Member LeftInTX (5,679 posts)
15. Mathematician here. I agree

I haven't been active in math for a long time, but Nate Cohn gave Trump a 30% chance of winning.

Star Member LaydeeBug (10,024 posts)
30. You mean, you castigated this OP on an ASSUMPTION you made?

wow

of course... she/ne/it misses the entire point being made...

american_ideals (99 posts)
38. No. Must rule out simpler explanations

Unless the OP rules out alternatives, the OP cannot make that conclusion.

That's how science works.

Star Member LaydeeBug (10,024 posts)
41. and in this instance, the 'simpler explanation' is supposition.

you don't get to claim the mathematical high ground while you're standing on a heap of bullshit.

When you don't like the facts change the facts...

american_ideals (99 posts)
52. Distortion of the scientific method.

A claim is only valid if alternative explanations are ruled out. If a claim is invalid, nothing can be concluded. Here, an alternative explanation has not been ruled out. Therefore nothing can be concluded.

Star Member tomp (9,069 posts)
44. not a statistician...but...my logic begins with the fact that worldwide, exit polls are used to measure the validity of the vote count, and these did not match up in the u.s. in 2016 in some critical cases.

are you by any chance saying this is no longer a valid means of determining the fairness of elections, or that 2016 is a special case for some reason?

american_ideals (99 posts)
51. Neither. Just OP's conclusion isn't supported.
OP is using poll data and vote outcomes to determine if there was voting irregularity.
What I am saying is if poll data was distorted, the probability of voting irregularity calculated above is wrong.
There may have been voting irregularity. (The OPs argument doesn't show there was.). But we KNOW there was voter suppression and propaganda and enormous amounts of dark money. Let's work on those three known problems. If voter irregularity is confirmed, we can work on that too.

What the OP doesn't show is a consistent screwing of the polls to favor the left by the MSM for the last 20+ years.

MichMary (357 posts)
54. Question about exit polls

I live in a small town, where my polling place probably has at most, a thousand or so voters for a presidential election. I have never been exit polled, which makes sense. Why would anyone stand outside a polling place which has a small number of voters? Well, multiply my insignificant little district by the thousands of other similar districts (most of which probably lean conservative,) and it may more than offset the exit polls of larger cities, where exit polling is probably much more likely to happen, and which will tend to lean Democrat. Could that account for the discrepancy?

triron (3,440 posts)
6. If you google "Ron Baiman" you will find a very good analysis of exit poll data that shows a similar improbable result.

mythology (6,725 posts)
17. No you won't find good analysis

Bainman uses "raw" or unadjusted exit poll data which means his conclusions are unmitigated bullshit. Nobody should give that idiot the time of day.

https://www.thenation.com/article/reminder-exit-poll-conspiracy-theories-are-totally-baseless/

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jun/06/outraged-wisconsin-exit-polls-so-wrong

Star Member LaydeeBug (10,024 posts)
40. I will check him out because this seems to be bothering some and they gaslight reflexively

Like...they hacked our rolls...they micro targeted people, they threw people off the voting rolls and gerrymandered. All of this provable fact...but *somehow*, they just *STOPPED SHORT* of hacking or voting machines. *THAT* is just too much, right?

No one with any nefarious purpose would have even TRIED that...we should stop saying it because exit polls are wrong...at least that's what they want you to believe.

Don't let anyone gaslight you.

Each step of the way, they've called us crazy. But here we are...on this path...we've been proven right time and time again.

well, 1) You are completely batshit crazy. 2) Stop using the term gaslight if you don't understand how to use it. 3) LdB's first comment explains why the [D]s lost- "I don't like this line of thought... I'm going to find one which agrees with me!"

sandensea (140 posts)
16. You better believe it.

And with the easily-hacked read-and-write (Rethuglican-designed) software in most of those voting machines, it must have been a cinch.

Star Member JoeOtterbein (559 posts)
19. I live in York PA and I have said many times that when I vote I touch a name on the screen and then

who knows what happens? No receipt, no paper, not even a punch on a roll of paper. When I first moved here over 20 years ago we at least had that.

Also, consider that two years ago, in an off-year election, PA elected my fellow proud York, PA citizen, Tom Wolf, for Gov. Tom is a guy as opposite a politician from Trump as anyone can be.

Then we elect Trump.

Not possible for me, unless Russia is involved.

Star Member Liberty Belle (7,216 posts)
22. The Republicans could also have hacked the voting machines.

I've thought from day one this is what happened.

Star Member LaydeeBug (10,024 posts)
35. Oh, I think the Russians and Republicans coordinated with one another for sure.

I just think it is foolish to examine the expanse of what they did, and then turn a blind eye by pretending the malfeasance stopped with voting machines.

That kind of assholery actually helps Russia.

And I am not about helping Russia at all.

Star Member LaydeeBug (10,024 posts)
34. Check out Mike Farb on North Carolina.

Follow
 MikeFarb @mikefarb1
#unhackthevote

North Carolina. You already knew there was a problem.

What Happened in North Carolina?

Thread
11:09 PM - 27 May 2017

Star Member KingCharlemagne (7,578 posts)
37. You should delete this thread. It makes DU look stupid, i.e., suffering from innumeracy. The plain fact is that precincts and counties that were +12 to +15 for Obama in 2012 swung to +1 to +2 Trump in 2016. Even if Russia did have access to tabulations of ballots, there is no way they could tilt an election by 15-17 points.

Where's the evidence??????

you can't stop the stupid now- it's infected the DU and the Left and now you are ****ing stuck with it.

Star Member KingCharlemagne (7,578 posts)
43. I think Hillary's campaign also suffered from over-confidence. She repeated Gore's

error from 2000 of taking the base for granted. Field workers in 3 of the 5 states mentioned were screaming for more resources on the ground, little or none of which was forthcoming from Hillary's campaign.

Moral: Never, ever take your base for granted.

Star Member Demsrule86 (11,793 posts)
46. I have always believed Trump is illegitimate and got there by cheating.

He took just enough...and votes were 'lost' in Detroit...PA, MI and WI all had numbers run up in rural areas.

roomtomove (128 posts)
49. ALL of our elections are rigged...

by voting machine fraud/tampering and manipulating the tabulation. The media and the politicians are afraid of the consequences if this is revealed/made public.

[SVPete]

american_ideals (99 posts)
10. Yes-wrong. Statistician here. Problem is polls may have been flawed.

The probability calculations are invalid unless the poll numbers were accurate reflections of the way people would vote.

This Low-Post-Count DU Noob started off right (but I have never heard Rs or conservatives telling each other to lie to pollsters - I'm sure it happens, it's just not ubiquitous as LPCDUN claims).

It's an example of the ancient computer industry saying: GIGO, Garbage In, Garbage Out. The polling "data" was designer garbage, obtained using data sampling models that guaranteed a certain preferred result. How much of that was intentional skewing and how much was due to stupidity, I don't much care.

But Trump did employ two tricks to win the Presidency:

* He worked his ass off, in all the right places;

* He worked Hillary's ass out.

Both of which, BTW, show how stupid recent speculations about Trump's stamina are.

[Ralph Wiggum]

DUmmies, seek help.

And read this book:

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2008/03/20/books/20masl.html

[DumbAss Tanker]

It's so rewarding seeing them hopelessly entangle themselves in these conspiracy theories, and knowing that real facts to support them will never, ever be found because they do not exist.  Just like the 9-11 Troofers, that will of course only feed their paranoid delusion, as they construct further and further levels of conspiracy to explain why the evidence isn't turning up.  It's like watching the genius evil computer on an original Star Trek episode be stymied from its malevolent intent by being forced to calculate an irrational number completely or resolve a logical paradox.

[SVPete]

It's so rewarding seeing them hopelessly entangle themselves in these conspiracy theories, and knowing that real facts to support them will never, ever be found because they do not exist.  Just like the 9-11 Troofers, that will of course only feed their paranoid delusion, as they construct further and further levels of conspiracy to explain why the evidence isn't turning up.  It's like watching the genius evil computer on an original Star Trek episode be stymied from its malevolent intent by being forced to calculate an irrational number completely or resolve a logical paradox.

At least Troofers and Birther had a single fixation. DU folk are like, "Russian squirrel!" "Impeachment squirrel!" "Indictment squirrel!" "25th Amendment squirrel!" "Emoluments squirrel!"

[BlueStateSaint]

It's so rewarding seeing them hopelessly entangle themselves in these conspiracy theories, and knowing that real facts to support them will never, ever be found because they do not exist.  Just like the 9-11 Troofers, that will of course only feed their paranoid delusion, as they construct further and further levels of conspiracy to explain why the evidence isn't turning up.  It's like watching the genius evil computer on an original Star Trek episode be stymied from its malevolent intent by being forced to calculate an irrational number completely or resolve a logical paradox.

"Calculate to the last digit the value of pi."

"Stay woke."

[Adam Wood]

It's so rewarding seeing them hopelessly entangle themselves in these conspiracy theories, and knowing that real facts to support them will never, ever be found because they do not exist.  Just like the 9-11 Troofers, that will of course only feed their paranoid delusion, as they construct further and further levels of conspiracy to explain why the evidence isn't turning up.  It's like watching the genius evil computer on an original Star Trek episode be stymied from its malevolent intent by being forced to calculate an irrational number completely or resolve a logical paradox.

Yep.  Want to watch steam come out of their ears when they can't come up with an answer?

Like...they hacked our rolls...they micro targeted people, they threw people off the voting rolls and gerrymandered. All of this provable fact.

Tell Insane Insect to name one person who was prevented from legally voting in 2016.  Just one.

That one completely grinds their gears every time.

[DUmpsterDiver]

>@TrueFactsStated I'm a Math teacher. Prob Trump would win all 5 swing states was .0016, 16 ten thousandths of 1%. Putin hacked more than just emails.

You have been reduced down to the floor() of idiocy and must now be removed from the equation of reality.  You get zero to divide by and zero to work with.  Have a nice day.