Obamaite primitives upset with Zogby now

[franksolich]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3424504

Oh my.

And to think Zogby is strongly biased in favor of Democrats, to begin with.

robcon  (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-05-08 10:29 AM
Original message

ATV/Zogby Poll Toss-Up McCain 42%, Obama 41% as Undecided Voters Increase
   
Source: Zogby International

Obama loses support among his strongest demographic groups

UTICA, New York – A national Associated TV/Zogby International telephone poll of 1,011 likely voters conducted July 31-Aug. 1 finds Republican Sen. John McCain taking a razor-thin 42%-41% lead over Democrat Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the U.S. presidency.

The margin between the candidates is statistically insignificant, but demonstrates a notable turn-around from the Reuters/Zogby poll of July 7-9 that showed Obama ahead, 46%-36% in a four-way match-up that included Libertarian candidate Bob Barr of Georgia and liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader. McCain made significant gains at Obama’s expense among some of what had been Obama’s strongest demographic groups. For example:

* McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group, 49%-38%.
* Among women, McCain closed 10 points on Obama, who still leads by a 43%-38% margin.
* Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among Independents. He and McCain are now tied.
* Obama had some slippage among Democrats, dropping from 83% to 74%.
* Obama’s support among single voters dropped by 19%, and he now leads McCain, 51%-37%.
* Even with African-Americans and Hispanics, Obama shows smaller margins.

Read more: http://www.zogby.com/News/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1535

ryanmuegge  (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-05-08 10:31 AM
Response to Original message

1. *******IT.
   
I hate the American public. ****ing idiots. We deserve what we're going to get over the next four years if we elect another Republican after 8 years of Bush. I'm so ****ing pissed off right now.

Maybe the American public thinks the mugging primitive is a ****ing idiot.  Who knows?

Richardo  Donating Member  (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-05-08 10:34 AM
Response to Original message

3. The swings are huge - losing double-digit advantages in two weeks?
   
Looks dubious to me.

Looks credible to franksolich, who's been watching politics for a very long time now.

Kurt_and_Hunter  Donating Member  (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-05-08 10:36 AM
Response to Original message

4. Obama should get a bigger than average convention bump, but the RNC is so close on the DNC's heels it will be a weird polling environment.

All the post-convention Obama polling will occur DURING the RNC, which is weird.

So whatever polling bounce Obama shows post-DNC it will be more meaningful than usual, not just transient fluff.

Now, franksolich is not God, and so can't say for sure, but something tells franksolich the best "bounce" Barry "Goldwater" Obama's going to get from the Democrat National Convention is perhaps 2 percentage points.....however, this is not to say Barry "Goldwater" Obama's going to get a bounce.  He may not.

Carrieyazel  (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-05-08 11:21 AM
Response to Original message

18. Bad news. And this is Zogby, a more favorable to Obama poll than some of the others.

Obama has new fighting back ads, but he's airing them now in the first week of August, the least-watched TV week of the year. Few will actually notice them before the Olympics start, and viewership rises on the NBC networks, (but not on other channels). Obama should have started to hit hard on McCain a month ago or more.

kirby  Donating Member  (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-05-08 11:41 AM
Response to Original message

24. When do the debates start?
   
I have a feeling the debates will help undecided voters decide.

franksolich is not God, and so does not know for sure, but franksolich suspects that when the debates start, that's when John McCain may perhaps possibly get a bounce into two digits.  franksolich has watched politics for a very long time now, and thus far hasn't seen anything out of the ordinary here.

Oh my.

[Carl]

The fact that Obama isn`t ahead by 10-15 points right now should put the fear of God in every DUmmies heart.

Maybe it has which is the reason for so many threads on the island just certain Obama is going to win in a landslide.
They need to reassure each other they are right I think.

[Uhhuh35]

DUmmie_kirby  Donating Member  (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-05-08 11:41 AM
Response to Original message
24. When do the debates start?   
I have a feeling the debates will help undecided voters decide.

They sure will! 

[DumbAss Tanker]

The convention timing could result in any post-convention bounce for Obama being swallowed by the focus on the GOP convention, I would not count on a big effect from it this time.

Normally the winner of the first convention has at least a couple of weeks to make hay by grabbing the lion's share of the limelight and running with the publicity surge.  However, this time that may not work out for him at all, between (1) the GOP convention coverage walking on the Dem post-convention news and (2) the fact that Obama actually couldn't get any larger share of the limelight than he already enjoyed before the conventions, so any change would inevitably be to his disadvantage.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Frank, the DUmmies are already calling B.S. on every poll that doesn't have Barry up by double digits, even in the reddest of states.  The exit polls are going to be nearly worthless, because there are so many politically correct people who will tell a pollster that they voted for B. Hussein even when they didn't.  This is going to drive Truth-is-All and the other "stolen election" enthusiasts nuts.  I envision chaos come election day, and it's going to be fun.

[Happy Fun Ball]

If this trend continues, the convention will look more and more interesting to say the least, both inside and outside. Remember, Obaama isn't the nominee yet. Even now, he still doesn't have enough delegate votes and you just know that Hillary is looking at these polls with even more eager anticipation than we are.

[Wretched Excess]

that zogby poll this morning took my breath away.  if zogby says the The BarackStar! is behind, then he is not just losing, but losing by a healthy margin.

[Splashdown]

According to electoral-vote.com, McCain is catching up in state-by-state polls, as well. That site is run by a pretty hopeful democrat, but he does a pretty good job of keeping up with state polls. According to that site, Fla. just turned for McCain.

electoral-vote.com

[Wretched Excess]

we have a thread in our own election forum on the zogby poll.

[bijou]

robcon (1000+ posts)     Tue Aug-05-08 10:29 AM
Original message
ATV/Zogby Poll Toss-Up McCain 42%, Obama 41% as Undecided Voters Increase
 Advertisements [?]Source: Zogby International

Obama loses support among his strongest demographic groups

UTICA, New York – A national Associated TV/Zogby International telephone poll of 1,011 likely voters conducted July 31-Aug. 1 finds Republican Sen. John McCain taking a razor-thin 42%-41% lead over Democrat Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the U.S. presidency.

The margin between the candidates is statistically insignificant, but demonstrates a notable turn-around from the Reuters/Zogby poll of July 7-9 that showed Obama ahead, 46%-36% in a four-way match-up that included Libertarian candidate Bob Barr of Georgia and liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader. McCain made significant gains at Obama’s expense among some of what had been Obama’s strongest demographic groups. For example:

* McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group, 49%-38%.
* Among women, McCain closed 10 points on Obama, who still leads by a 43%-38% margin.
* Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among Independents. He and McCain are now tied.
* Obama had some slippage among Democrats, dropping from 83% to 74%.
* Obama’s support among single voters dropped by 19%, and he now leads McCain, 51%-37%.
* Even with African-Americans and Hispanics, Obama shows smaller margins.



Read more: http://www.zogby.com/News/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1535


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Although the campaign only starts in earnest after the conventions, these are worrisome trends, especially in a poll (Zogby) that traditionally over-represents Democratic voters.

I think Obama will regain momentum after his convention speech, and get at least a 5 point lead by Labor Day.

 

ryanmuegge (1000+ posts)      Tue Aug-05-08 10:31 AM
Response to Original message
1. *******IT. 
 Edited on Tue Aug-05-08 10:31 AM by ryanmuegge
I hate the American public. ****ing idiots. We deserve what we're going to get over the next four years if we elect another Republican after 8 years of Bush. I'm so ****ing pissed off right now.
 

AndyTiedye  (1000+ posts)       Tue Aug-05-08 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #2
16. He is a Hot-head Who May Very Well Start a Nuclear War 
 If we are going negative, look to the masters of going negative, the LBJ campaign against Goldwater.

The "Daisy" ad was the most effective negative ad of all time.
It brought us the only Democratic landslide in our lifetimes.

McCain is a hothead who may very well start a nuclear war if elected.
We need to make the American people understand this fact.

We need another "Daisy" ad.

This is the original:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKs-bTL-pRg
 
...

Raster  (1000+ posts)       Tue Aug-05-08 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #6
40. Nader NEVER ****ed us the first time.
 One more time for those of you that missed it. According to the Independent News Consortium, if all the votes in Florida were legally and lawfully counted GORE WON. Undisputed fact. Once you factor in the Jeb Bush*/Katherine Harris electoral fraud in all its many forms and shapes, it becomes vividly apparent that Gore won handily. Gore did not lose Florida and thus the Presidency. It was stolen. That is also an indisputable fact. A right-wing, bloodless coup d'etat with the assistance of Supreme Court of the United States--a Republican majority Supreme Court--completed the election theft.

Put the blame where the blame belongs. And ultimately the blame belongs with the American people. That's right. You and me. Because we did not care enough to get OUR fat asses out of our La-Z-Boys and safeguard OUR democracy.

BLAME NADER is an appallingly successful right-wing meme that is designed to focus anger and responsibility away from the real people that ****ed us, and are setting themselves up to **** us all over again. Unfortunately that meme succeeds because America has moved from a culture of responsibility to one of blame and retribution. Stop the insanity and educate yourself. Each and every time someone throws out the "BLAME NADER" bullshit you just make the bad guy's job a bit easier.

Winston. (48 posts)      Tue Aug-05-08 11:38 AM
Response to Reply #19
23. Another reason they may want this to appear close
 is to make it possible to steal another election without it being too obvious...I don't trust anything that comes out of the mainstream media.

BrklynLiberal  (1000+ posts)       Tue Aug-05-08 11:57 AM
Response to Original message
33. POLL FRAUD PRECEDES ELECTION FRAUD
 not my original thought. Thanks to another DUer.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3424504#3424508

Visit the thread to see the frothing frenzy in its full glory. 

[Lauri]

The convention timing could result in any post-convention bounce for Obama being swallowed by the focus on the GOP convention, I would not count on a big effect from it this time.

Normally the winner of the first convention has at least a couple of weeks to make hay by grabbing the lion's share of the limelight and running with the publicity surge.  However, this time that may not work out for him at all, between (1) the GOP convention coverage walking on the Dem post-convention news and (2) the fact that Obama actually couldn't get any larger share of the limelight than he already enjoyed before the conventions, so any change would inevitably be to his disadvantage.

add to that the Dem protestors - at either convention - and Obama is likely to be eclipsed just when most Americans are tuning in.

[Lauri]

If this trend continues, the convention will look more and more interesting to say the least, both inside and outside. Remember, Obaama isn't the nominee yet. Even now, he still doesn't have enough delegate votes and you just know that Hillary is looking at these polls with even more eager anticipation than we are.

 i forgot all about the delegate votes. it appears the media has as well.. hmm..

[DumbAss Tanker]

Yes, the possibility of a Denver coup cannot be discounted.  With BHO coming out for full count of the Florida and Michigan delegations, opportunity is knocking on Hillary's door.

[Chris_]

I was checking the DNC's convention website looking for a schedule of speakers, and I noticed they have pictures of Denver's convention center AND the football stadium. 

You think they aren't a little over-optimistic? 

[Lauri]

Yes, the possibility of a Denver coup cannot be discounted.  With BHO coming out for full count of the Florida and Michigan delegations, opportunity is knocking on Hillary's door.

i have forgotten most of the Hill stuff now.. did she release all of her delegates already? I assume she did..

[DumbAss Tanker]

I was under the (possibly-mistaken) impression she had merely 'suspended' her campaign, and had not actually released her delegates.

[Wretched Excess]

no, really.  we do have a thread in our own election forum on <a href="http://www.conservativecave.com/index.php/topic,10995.0.html" target="_blank">the zogby poll.[/url]

[BEG]

kirby  Donating Member  (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-05-08 11:41 AM
Response to Original message

24. When do the debates start?
   
I have a feeling the debates will help undecided voters decide.

Be careful what you wish for.....

I can't wait for the debates myself, I don't think Obama will do so hot!!!   

[Chris_]

kirby  Donating Member  (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-05-08 11:41 AM
Response to Original message

24. When do the debates start?
   
I have a feeling the debates will help undecided voters decide.

Be careful what you wish for.....

I can't wait for the debates myself, I don't think Obama will do so hot!!!   

Considering he won't be able to plant the questions like Hillary did, and he won't be able to read "his" answers off a teleprompter, teh Obamessiah is screwed come the Debates.

[djones520]

kirby  Donating Member  (1000+ posts) Tue Aug-05-08 11:41 AM
Response to Original message

24. When do the debates start?
   
I have a feeling the debates will help undecided voters decide.

Be careful what you wish for.....

I can't wait for the debates myself, I don't think Obama will do so hot!!!   

Considering he won't be able to plant the questions like Hillary did, and he won't be able to read "his" answers off a teleprompter, teh Obamessiah is screwed come the Debates.

Don't expect the DUmmies to see it like that.  They'll wail and bitch about how biased the moderators where.

[Chris_]

They're gonna wail and bitch regardless.  That's what DUmmies do.

[Chris_]

Don't expect the DUmmies to see it like that.  They'll wail and bitch about how biased the moderators where.

All the moderators are in the bag for the Obama camp.  You'd have to be ill to see it otherwise.

[Ralph Wiggum]

POLL FRAUD PRECEDES ELECTION FRAUD

Translated:  If the polls don't say what I believe, it must be fraud. 

[djones520]

Don't expect the DUmmies to see it like that.  They'll wail and bitch about how biased the moderators where.

All the moderators are in the bag for the Obama camp.  You'd have to be ill to see it otherwise.

Did you forget who we where talking about here?

[Chris_]

Don't expect the DUmmies to see it like that.  They'll wail and bitch about how biased the moderators where.

All the moderators are in the bag for the Obama camp.  You'd have to be ill to see it otherwise.

Did you forget who we where talking about here?

Nope.