The nightmare Ebola scenario that keeps scientists up at night

[BlueStateSaint]

Now that a second case has been diagnosed (BSS' note:  As I was typing this, the second case has been confirmed  by CDC) in the Dallas area, maybe it's time to read something like this.  Maybe not . . .

The nightmare Ebola scenario that keeps scientists up at night

Updated by Julia Belluz on October 12, 2014, 8:51 a.m. ET


A burial team from the Liberian Red Cross prays before collecting the body of an Ebola victim near Monrovia, Liberia.

Ebola fear and conspiracy theories are spreading faster than the disease. But even scientists — who have thought very deeply about Ebola and pandemics — are beginning to worry.

What they fear, however, is slightly different from the zombies and airborne Ebola that keeps many of us up at night. I asked them about what it would take for Ebola to spread further in America and around the world. Here's their worst-case scenario:

1) The Ebola outbreak in West Africa keeps growing


Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone. (Photo courtesy of Anadolu Agency)

In order for Ebola to move around the world, the outbreak needs to continue to grow in West Africa. Cases there need to keep on their exponential ascent. The more people infected with Ebola at the source, the more likely they are to infect other people, and the more likely those people are to travel and spread the disease. It's the mathematics of Ebola, and it's scary.

For the situation to deteriorate in West Africa, efforts to address it need to fail. The unprecedented international response — led by the US — needs to be implemented too slowly, and needs to continue to lag the growth in cases.

And this is possible, at least for the foreseeable future, since the epidemic has already had such a long lead time before the international community intervened. "We have had more Ebola cases in the last two months than the entire history of the infection combined. It's still in the growth phase," says Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. "The longer it continues in West Africa, the bigger a chance it's going to get much more global."

The rest is at:  http://www.vox.com/2014/10/10/6954071/the-nightmare-ebola-scenario-that-keeps-scientists-up-at-night

Yup--this might be the best thing to do: