Malaysian Airlines MH17 'shot down with ground-to-air missile' at 33,000ft

[DefiantSix]

One of the explanations I heard was that the missile explodes on the outside of craft throwing off projectiles.  Similar to what a bomb packed full of nails would do.

True.  That explains the holes with the edges pulled inward on the panel.  However there are several holes on that panel with the edges pulled OUTWARD. An external explosion wouldn't do that.  It's possible that in order to ensure a hit, whoever was manning the battery fired TWO missiles, and the penetrations exiting the panel were from the second missile, on the other side of the plane.  Or, It's possible that the outward holes are the result of a pressure vessel within the plane yielding to damage it had sustained - an oxygen bottle or something similar.

[txradioguy]

One of the explanations I heard was that the missile explodes on the outside of craft throwing off projectiles.  Similar to what a bomb packed full of nails would do.

That was the explanation I heard from a former fighter jet pilot that was quoted in the FT Article.  Surface to air missiles aren't designed to impact with the aircraft.  They have proximity warheads designed to explode close to the aircraft in order to send out a shit ton of shrapnel. 



From the article:

Two defence analysts in London and a former military pilot who have studied the picture corroborated the claim by a local man, who said he had served in the military, that much of the damage was consistent with a missile strike.

<snip>

Justin Bronk, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said: “The size of the shrapnel holes is consistent with what one might expect to see from an SA-11 hit. However, it is difficult to assess the total blast pattern with such a small fragment of fuselage.”

Another analyst, Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the photographic evidence “was consistent with the kind of damage you would expect to see from the detonation of a high explosive fragmentation warhead of the type commonly used in a SAM system”.

<snip>

One former senior Royal Air Force officer who was shown the picture said he had seen similar damage on aircraft that had been hit by flying shrapnel from rocket attacks on airbases.

All three experts agreed that the large hole in the middle of the fragment was likely to have been punched from the inside out as the aircraft rapidly depressurised when it was hit at a height of 33,000ft last Thursday afternoon.

All three confirmed the part of the aircraft in the photograph was the port side of the Boeing 777’s cockpit. The former RAF officer, who flew fast jets, said that based on the evidence it would appear that the missile exploded in front and to the left of the aircraft.

Anti-aircraft missiles are not designed to score a direct hit as they are targeted to destroy fast, agile fighter jets. Instead, they are designed to explode within about 20m of their target, sending out a cloud of red hot metal to increase the chances of inflicting as much damage as possible.

The former RAF pilot said an explosion in front of the aircraft would be consistent with the interception course a SAM would be expected to follow. “The last thing a ground-launched missile wants to do is play catch-up with an aircraft, it would look to get ahead of its target,” he said.

[Gina]

The former RAF pilot said an explosion in front of the aircraft would be consistent with the interception course a SAM would be expected to follow. “The last thing a ground-launched missile wants to do is play catch-up with an aircraft, it would look to get ahead of its target,” he said.

that's what I was asking about earlier.  I had read in some article that that was why they thought it was possible to be a A2A missile because it hit the tail area.  heck if I know but I'm enjoying this discussion learning 

[txradioguy]

that's what I was asking about earlier.  I had read in some article that that was why they thought it was possible to be a A2A missile because it hit the tail area.  heck if I know but I'm enjoying this discussion learning 

Except from what they've been able to determine it wasn't hit from behind.  It was hit on the left side ahead of the engine.  The missiles like the SA-11 manuver to what's called an intercept point....a place in the sky where rocket and plane converge.

And even if the air to air theory were plausible...it wouldn't have hit the tail of the plane.  Those are heat seeking missiles and they go for the biggest heat source...which would have been one of the two engines.

[BlueStateSaint]

Here's an interesting development . . .

Exclusive: Ukraine Asked U.S. for Tech to Counter Russia's Jet Killers

Eli Lake 
World News
 
07.23.14

Last month, Ukraine quietly asked the United States and NATO for sensitive equipment to jam the radars that Russian anti-aircraft systems use to lock their missiles on planes.

As the United States and NATO last month began to publicly acknowledge the sophisticated Russian anti-aircraft systems moving into rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine, the government in Kiev asked for gear that might be used to counter those weapons.
 
According to a former senior U.S. defense official who has worked closely with Ukraine’s military and a former head of state who has consulted with the government there, Kiev last month requested the radar jamming and detection equipment necessary to evade and counter the anti-aircraft systems Moscow was providing the country’s separatists.
 
Those anti-aircraft systems were almost certainly used to shoot down MH17, the Malaysian air passenger jet shot out of the sky last Thursday. U.S. officials have pointed the finger at Russia for providing that equipment, though no final assessment has been made of culpability for the incident.
 
Philip Karber, a former strategy adviser to Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger, has conducted detailed assessments of the country’s military since the crisis began this year. Karber returned from the Ukrainian front earlier this month. He told The Daily Beast, “I was told in June by the Ukrainians that one of their top five priorities that they had conveyed to the United States and NATO that month was to get help in electronic warfare,” which gives a military the ability to detect, spoof and jam the radars of enemy anti-aircraft missile batteries.

Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president of the Republic of Georgia, also said that in his meetings this month with Ukraine’s leadership he was told by the country’s national security adviser, Andriy Parubiy, that Ukraine had requested technology to detect anti-aircraft systems. Saakashvili was Georgia’s president when Russia invaded two Georgian republics—Abkhazia and South Ossetia—in 2008 and has offered his views to Ukraine as they face a similar crisis today. “He told me they desperately needed electronic warfare capabilities from the Americans,” Saakashvili told The Daily Beast.

Just like the Obamessiah--don't do anything to piss off the Russians.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/23/exclusive-ukraine-asked-u-s-for-tech-to-counter-russia-s-jet-killers.html#

[SVPete]

Here's an interesting development . . .

Just like the Obamessiah--don't do anything to piss off the Russians.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/23/exclusive-ukraine-asked-u-s-for-tech-to-counter-russia-s-jet-killers.html#

Interesting ... named sources. I didn't know that was allowed anymore in US "news" media. Do I need sarcasm tags?

I don't think BHO's dithering had gotten to the point of deciding not to PO Putin.

[Eupher]

Ouch!

That piece is from the cockpit area, right below the wind shield(s) in front of the pilot's seat.  What confuses me, is that I think I see penetrations inward through the panel from outward, as well as penetrations from inside the panel, flying outward. Possibly more than one missile, or maybe something like the pilot's O₂ bottle giving way after being hit.

The article states that rapid depressurization can cause the inward-to-outward pattern of at least the big hole.

A tiny quote:

...the large hole in the middle of the fragment was likely to have been punched from the inside out as the aircraft rapidly depressurised when it was hit at a height of 33,000ft...

[JohnnyReb]

CBS Evening News, of all places, showed the crash site tonight and compared it to a picture from a few days ago. The rebels have removed large chunks of the plane.

Yep, they shot it down and are now trying to cover their Putin's ass. He shouldn't worry, Obama has his back.

[txradioguy]

CBS Evening News, of all places, showed the crash site tonight and compared it to a picture from a few days ago. The rebels have removed large chunks of the plane.

Yep, they shot it down and are now trying to cover their Putin's ass. He shouldn't worry, Obama has his back.

Another report I heard said that some of the pieces look like they've been altered with power tools.