I guess what I'm trying to say is that had the Fed not pumped $5T-plus into the markets, would we be looking at a 16,000 Dow right now? We've seen a couple of off days just from the mention of tapering off of QE.
One thing I find disturbing is if you look at the Dow since 1985, there was a HUGE jump in the dot-com era, the 2000-01 correction, then the housing bubble burst and the 2008 financial crisis, and the subsequent climb until today.
But seriously, how can you honestly justify an increase in the Dow since 1985 of almost 1200 percent? The increase between January 1985 and January of 1995 is barely 200 percent. From there to January of 2008 is another 200 percent.
Granted the market then took a drop of over 47 percent in the following year. But even then, the increase between 1985 and then is still almost 500 percent over the previous 24 years, for an increase of about 7 percent per year. That's pretty much keeping in line with historical market averages.
And in the last 5 years since the historic low, we've seen a rise of 120 percent, or nearly 18 percent a year. I don't think we could say that we'd see anywhere near that level of gains were it not for the money being pumped into the market. Is it sustainable? I don't think so. And when QE does end, I think we're going to see a pretty serious drop in the markets.
Now I'm obviously no financial advisor, so I don't know where to go, although bonds seems to be reasonable if the market takes another dump of more than 10-20 percent. Looking at a chart of the Dow, I can't help but come away feeling that stocks are way overvalued right now.
Another thought that occurred to me was when the Bush tax cuts of 2001-03 kicked in, with the reduction of the capital gains taxes, we had a HUGE influx of money into the markets, which created the rise between 2002 and 2008, until the housing bubble/financial crisis kicked in, and the Fed is just continuing what was started in the late 90's/early 2000's, which was a huge influx of capital previously unknown. Are we depending on a continuing influx of capital to support the markets? Who knows? What I do know/strongly suspect is that jacking the capital gains taxes back up to 28 percent or more is going to cause a big correction in the markets.