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Author Topic: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio  (Read 2260 times)

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Offline Delmar

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Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« on: November 04, 2012, 06:03:33 PM »
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Sun Nov 4, 2012, 08:46 AM
 aaaaaa5a (3,046 posts)

Lets be honest. If Obama loses Ohio, there will be no reason to ever look at polling data again.


 

Here is the RCP average for Ohio. I believe these numbers actually leave out 1 or 2 credible polling surveys in the state that also show Obama ahead.

RCP Average   10/23 - 11/3   --   --   49.3   46.5   Obama +2.8

Columbus Dispatch*   10/24 - 11/3   1501 LV   2.2   50   48   Obama +2

Rasmussen Reports   11/1 - 11/1   750 LV   4.0   49   49   Tie

NBC/WSJ/Marist   10/31 - 11/1   971 LV   3.1   51   45   Obama +6

CNN/Opinion Research   10/30 - 11/1   796 LV   3.5   50   47   Obama +3

WeAskAmerica   10/30 - 11/1   1649 LV   2.6   50   46   Obama +4

Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.   10/25 - 10/30   1182 LV   2.9   48   46   Obama +2

SurveyUSA   10/26 - 10/29   603 LV   4.1   48   45   Obama +3

Gravis Marketing   10/27 - 10/27   730 LV   3.6   50   49   Obama +1

PPP (D)   10/26 - 10/28   718 LV   3.7   51   47   Obama +4

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac   10/23 - 10/28   1110 LV   3.0   50   45   Obama +5

Purple Strategies   10/23 - 10/25   600 LV   4.0   46   44   Obama +2

ARG   10/23 - 10/25   600 LV   4.0   49   47   Obama +2



These are 12 different polls conducted over 12 days. Even if you average the right wing pollsters together (Rasmussen, ARG, Gravis) Obama still leads. If Obama loses Ohio, either every single one of these industry leading experts were wrong, or their were election day legal issues. Those are the only possible outcomes looking at this much objective, conclusive data.

NBC even "unskewed their poll" for right wing conspiracists and still had Obama +3.






In 2008, RCP's polling average of each state was deadly accurate in predicting outcomes.

In 2008 the RCP state averages missed only in Indiana and North Carolina. Both of those elections were within about 1% point. And in both of those elections it had Obama losing, and he came back to win. The only other state missed in the RCP average was Nevada. The RCP average had Obama winning by a slim margin. And it ended up being a blowout in Obama's favor. (Nobody knows how to count hispanics.)

That was it. Therefore we can conclude the RCP average is generally dead on accurate or is undercounting Obama's total.

Outside of this, for every other state in 2008, you could determine the winner, just by looking at the RCP average for that particular state.



If everyone works hard, we will win. PERIOD.








BTW... what does it say about our society and main stream media that NBC felt obligated to unskew a high tech, scientific, math data driven equation, just because the scientific outcome would be disliked by conservatives?


And you guys wonder why Americans don't believe in climate change? And want creationism taught in schools? NBC's move really says a lot about who we are as a country. Its very sad.

http://sync.democraticunderground.com/1251209005

Quote
Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)Sun Nov 4, 2012, 09:08 AM
 Jim__ (8,137 posts)
5. If Obama loses Ohio, it was stolen. - n/t

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Response to Jim__ (Reply #5)Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:10 AM
 CrispyQ (14,797 posts)
12. And if the dems roll over like they did in '04, I'll never vote again.

If it happens again, there better be one hell of a fight, & a serious effort to expose the repubs for the lying, cheating bastards they are & none of this conceding the next day bullshit.   

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)Sun Nov 4, 2012, 09:23 AM
Squinch (365 posts)
10. If Obama loses Ohio, Husted needs to be arrested

and all voting machines need to be outlawed.

Quote
Response to Evergreen Emerald (Reply #14)Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:25 AM
Squinch (365 posts)
16. True. I'm getting my torch and pitchfork ready for a road trip if there is a problem.

I don't think that poor Squinch is going to make it to Tuesday.
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Offline Ballygrl

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 06:11:55 PM »
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NBC even "unskewed their poll" for right wing conspiracists and still had Obama +3.

Really? +3?

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332407/marist-polling-kind-contribution-obama-josh-jordan

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In Ohio, Marist/NBC/WSJ finds Obama up by six, 51–45, unchanged from just after the first debate. The Democratic party-ID advantage in this poll was nine points. Nine.


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This is not a one-time incident for Marist either. Every poll in Ohio this year has been the best result for Obama of all the polls there in the given time frame. Their last four Ohio poll results (including this one) have been: O+6, O+6, O+8, and O+7.
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Offline Big Dog

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2012, 06:14:13 PM »
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Response to Evergreen Emerald (Reply #14)Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:25 AM
Squinch (365 posts)
16. True. I'm getting my torch and pitchfork ready for a road trip if there is a problem.

Squinch? Isn't that one of those silly names for bodily noises, like Queef?

Being a DUmmy, the name "squinch" may refer to a sound that is unique to his peculiar... lifestyle, whatever it is.

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Offline docstew

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2012, 06:17:46 PM »
So, the conclusion, again, is that either O wins or it was stolen because there couldn't be anything like a sampling error or respondents messing with the pollster. Nothing like that ever happens. And of course, we know the polls that actually count are the ones conducted by MSM news outlets, not the ones where people actually line up and fill out a ballot.

UnAmerican Idiots.
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Offline Mr Mannn

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2012, 06:20:29 PM »
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Response to Evergreen Emerald (Reply #14)Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:25 AM
Squinch (365 posts)
16. True. I'm getting my torch and pitchfork ready for a road trip if there is a problem.
I guess that easy for someone who is not employed to do.

as for torches and pitchforks...bad behavior by occupier rats have won them so much support in the past, NOT.
If Squinch wants to be an a$$hole, go ahead. just remember: consequences. They will come your way.
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Offline jtyangel

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2012, 06:24:25 PM »
Quote from: Mr Mannn on November 04, 2012, 06:20:29 PM
I guess that easy for someone who is not employed to do.

as for torches and pitchforks...bad behavior by occupier rats have won them so much support in the past, NOT.
If Squinch wants to be an a$$hole, go ahead. just remember: consequences. They will come your way.

They better not bring their filth and rabble to this state. I live here and if I had to judge by rally attendance and yard signs alone, those polls are over sampled dem big time. Wonder if they are only calling the Cleveland area code and university campuses. Good grief.

People here are interested in living their  lives and raising their families. Dem shenanigans are not going to be tolerated well.
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2012, 06:31:15 PM »
The polls are meaningless if their turnout percentage assumptions are wrong.  And they are.
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Offline I_B_Perky

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2012, 06:34:32 PM »
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Response to Evergreen Emerald (Reply #14)Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:25 AM
Squinch (365 posts)
16. True. I'm getting my torch and pitchfork ready for a road trip if there is a problem.

Oh no!!! Torches and pitchforks!!!!   :angryvillagers:

OK I'll bite dummie. What are you going to do with said pitchfork and torch when you get there? Burn the polling places down? Skewer the poll workers?  

No dummie... you will do what you always do when things don't go your way. You will run to DU and cry like an infant.  

                                                                    :crybaby:
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Offline Jasonw560

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2012, 06:37:35 PM »
Quote from: jtyangel on November 04, 2012, 06:24:25 PM
They better not bring their filth and rabble to this state. I live here and if I had to judge by rally attendance and yard signs alone, those polls are over sampled dem big time. Wonder if they are only calling the Cleveland area code and university campuses. Good grief.

People here are interested in living their  lives and raising their families. Dem shenanigans are not going to be tolerated well.
What's the overall "feel"? Glad there's yard signs and the big rally attendance, but is there a perceivable "buzz" that Romney's close (or ahead in some polls?)
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Offline EagleKeeper

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2012, 06:45:59 PM »
I ain't worried about the libs going on the warpath, they say it all the time but what always happens? Not a dang thing.


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Offline jtyangel

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2012, 06:57:53 PM »
Quote from: Jasonw560 on November 04, 2012, 06:37:35 PM
What's the overall "feel"? Glad there's yard signs and the big rally attendance, but is there a perceivable "buzz" that Romney's close (or ahead in some polls?)

The overall feel is people here just are fed up with the bs all around. Not just the economy bit the bullshit cries of racism around every corner.
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Offline Zathras

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2012, 10:01:08 PM »
Quote from: DumbAss Tanker on November 04, 2012, 06:31:15 PM
The polls are meaningless if their turnout percentage assumptions are wrong.  And they are.

Exactly. The pollsters are basing their weighting of the polls on 2008 turnout when they should be using 2010 numbers. I believe the turnout in 2008 was Dems +8 but the 2010 turnout was even. I think the turnout for this election will be the same as 2010 and not 2008.
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Offline Chris_

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2012, 10:05:13 PM »
Pew is trumpeting their "final poll of the election" as an Obama win (50--47), but they refuse to disclose party affiliation in their methodology. 

Screw 'em.
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Offline I_B_Perky

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2012, 10:24:12 PM »
Quote from: EagleKeeper on November 04, 2012, 06:45:59 PM
I ain't worried about the libs going on the warpath, they say it all the time but what always happens? Not a dang thing.

Until your take their welfare away.   :fuelfire: :fuelfire:
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Offline Revolution

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2012, 11:48:02 PM »
Quote from: Big Dog on November 04, 2012, 06:14:13 PM
Squinch? Isn't that one of those silly names for bodily noises, like Queef?

Being a DUmmy, the name "squinch" may refer to a sound that is unique to his peculiar... lifestyle, whatever it is.



Not that I'd know what the sound actually is, but that name makes me think of a dude popping his dick out of another man's ass when he's done. That's the only thing I can think of to describe what a "squinch" is.

:puke:

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)Sun Nov 4, 2012, 09:08 AM
 Jim__ (8,137 posts)
5. If Obama loses Ohio, it was stolen. - n/t

Tin foil hat on NOW, or the aliens will get you!!
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Offline BigTex

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2012, 01:23:08 AM »
Quote from: Chris_ on November 04, 2012, 10:05:13 PM
Pew is trumpeting their "final poll of the election" as an Obama win (50--47), but they refuse to disclose party affiliation in their methodology.  

Screw 'em.

Yes they did, D +4

http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/11-4-12%20Election%20Weekend%20Release.pdf
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Offline cattlebaron

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2012, 02:41:30 AM »
When President Obama loses his reelection there will be mass denial. Charges of poll tampering and accusations of racism. It will be ugly. If the Dems in the senate try to screw us on obamacare repeal then it'll get far uglier. I sorta hope Dick Morris is right about the polling, because I want that kind of resounding landslide to prove how full of crap the liberal media is.
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Offline Randy

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2012, 10:49:16 AM »
Squinch has inspired me!



I'm going home today and load me up some mag's of .308, just cuz I can. :-)
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Offline Dori

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Re: Primitives sweating bullets over Ohio
« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2012, 10:54:06 AM »
The White House Insider says to forget Ohio, that the dims have been in there far too long, doing their thing. (vote fraud)
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