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Author Topic: NYT Poll Pushes Absurd Democratic Turnout Model  (Read 1923 times)

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Offline Chris_

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NYT Poll Pushes Absurd Democratic Turnout Model
« on: September 26, 2012, 08:56:40 AM »
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NYT Poll Pushes Absurd Democratic Turnout Model

In what could be considered nothing short of media malpractice, the New York Times and CBS News published three state polls by Quinnipiac University that shows Democratic advantages in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania at levels never before seen.

The allegedly scientific poll is said to give a clear idea of how the election might turnout if it were held today. But the published turnout assumes Democrats will outnumber Republicans by 33% in Florida and Ohio, while the advantage jumps by 40% in Pennsylvania.

Not surprisingly - despite their own data showing he is losing Independents in both FL and OH (PA data not released) - Obama is "clearly ahead" of Romney in all three states. And they say it isn't even close. Yep, even though he is losing the Independents he won handily in 2008, Obama is actually winning these swing states by more than double the margin he did then. Make sense?
Breitbart
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Offline BlueStateSaint

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Re: NYT Poll Pushes Absurd Democratic Turnout Model
« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2012, 09:27:49 AM »
To answer your question, Chris, no.

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This Morning’s Polls Project More Heavily Democratic Electorates Than 2008

By Jim Geraghty


September 26, 2012 8:20 A.M.    Comments 45


This morning, surveys from the New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac puts Obama ahead by 10 in Ohio, up by 12 in Pennsylvania, and up by 9 in Florida.
 
Since the issue of whether the party ID within polling samples is realistic seems to be the issue of the week, let’s take a look at how these samples stack up to the 2008 exit polls.
 
Ohio 2008 exits: 39% Democrat, 31% Republican, 30% Independent.
 
Ohio New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 35% Democrat, 26% Republican, 35% Independent.
 
In this sample, the partisan split is D+9 compared to D+8 four years ago, and the GOP is five percentage points smaller than in 2008.

There is no way that fewer Republicans are going to vote, now that they know Obama and his policies, in 2012.  No effin' way.

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/328555/mornings-polls-project-more-heavily-democratic-electorates-2008#

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Offline Karin

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Re: NYT Poll Pushes Absurd Democratic Turnout Model
« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2012, 09:36:12 AM »
Today, Ras has both nationals and swing states in dead tie. 
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Offline Wineslob

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Re: NYT Poll Pushes Absurd Democratic Turnout Model
« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2012, 09:38:34 AM »
My local news 'ran with it" this morning.     :whatever:
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Offline rich_t

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Re: NYT Poll Pushes Absurd Democratic Turnout Model
« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2012, 04:50:15 PM »
Quote from: BlueStateSaint on September 26, 2012, 09:27:49 AM
To answer your question, Chris, no.

There is no way that fewer Republicans are going to vote, now that they know Obama and his policies, in 2012.  No effin' way.

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/328555/mornings-polls-project-more-heavily-democratic-electorates-2008#



I think a lot of Republican voters were so luke warm about McCain in 08 that they stayed home.  I almost sat it out myself.  There were some state constitutional amendments that I really wanted to vote on in 08 which was the real reason I didn't sit it out.

I don't think that is the case this year.  Sure, a lot of Republicans aren't exactly enthusiastic about Romney, but they want Obama out with a passion.  IMO.
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Offline Freeper

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Re: NYT Poll Pushes Absurd Democratic Turnout Model
« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2012, 05:15:16 PM »
I was hearing that there was an increase in people who think that 0bama is the better man to fix the economy, that's when I knew these polls were bogus. There is no way in hell that all of a sudden more people believe that 0bama is a good choice for the economy.
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