Poll Shocker!! NC Democratic Primary: Hillary Clinton Takes Lead Over Obama

[Wretched Excess]

this is about a 20 point turnaround.  and it represents an erosion in his biggest demographic
group (other than african americans); educated middle age white voters.

if this poll isn't an outlier, and this trend with upper class whites is representative of a national
trend, this guy is toast in the general.

another salient point that is pointed out in this poll;  this was his "safe state" on tuesday.  now he
will have to spend resources (which he has plenty of) and time (which he has no more of than
hillary) to ensure that he still wins it.

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey:
North Carolina Democratic Primary: Hillary Clinton Takes Lead Over Obama

April 30, 2008 — A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolina’s May 6 Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton having moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in this telephone survey, conducted April 29. The survey was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8% 

The results were:

Hillary Clinton: 44%
Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 14%

Prior to his appearance on FoxNews Network’s “Hannity & Colmes,” on which the poll was released, InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery noted: “The shift has come almost entirely from white voters age 45 and over. There was a small drift of African-Americans back towards Clinton, but not so significant as to establish any trend.

“I believe when all is said and done, Obama will likely carry North Carolina; or if he loses the race, it will be by just a few points.

“Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day. If that happens, my guess is that he will pull this out. However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina.
 â€œIf this white vote shift does not erode, given that North Carolina’s white Democratic voters are primarily in the Research Triangle, where education and personal finances are in the top tier for the nation, then I would say this suggests a major shift in all future primaries towards Clinton,” said Towery.  Click here for crosstabs.  Click here for party breakdown.

Link

[Lord Undies]

Let me say it backwards:

WOW 

[Lacarnut]

Obama says Ouch!

[Wretched Excess]

I have read that this poll's sample is flawed;  it under sampled black voters.  two other polls have
baroque obama up 5 to 7.  but still, he has taken it on the chin in the past week.  he was up over
20 points just after the PA primary.

[Lacarnut]

I have read that this poll's sample is flawed;  it under sampled black voters.  two other polls have
baroque obama up 5 to 7.  but still, he has taken it on the chin in the past week.  he was up over
20 points just after the PA primary.

I think you are correct; it is not impossible for her to pull it out but anything under a 5% loss for her would be a victory.

[Wretched Excess]

I have read that this poll's sample is flawed;  it under sampled black voters.  two other polls have
baroque obama up 5 to 7.  but still, he has taken it on the chin in the past week.  he was up over
20 points just after the PA primary.

I think you are correct; it is not impossible for her to pull it out but anything under a 5% loss for her would be a victory.

she also does 3-5% better in the actual primary than in the final polls or the exit polls;  the "wilder effect", I assume.
if he loses NC, this is a whole new ballgame.

[rich_t]

Operation Chaos in effect?

 

[miskie]

.... more like OBuyer's Remorse - People are starting to learn there is nothing to Obama but Crunchy Platitudes on the outside and creamy fluff with black supremacist undertones on the inside.

Its that whole Cliche "you sleep with dogs, you wake up with fleas" thing - and the whole "inconsequential incident" buildup that is helping to expose said inner fluff;

No hand on heart during Pledge
No Flag Pin
Michelle's Comments
Wright's first comments followed by a weak, yet plausible comment from Obama
Obama's comments on his grandmother
Wright's second comments

Etc etc etc.

I'm convinced that people liked Obama better when he was a man of mystery.
   

[Chris_]

Obama seems to have a habit of throwing associates (not to mention family) under the bus when it's politically expedient.  Sure, it's no different from most other politicians, but I thought "a new kind of politics" was part of his whole schtick.

[Chris_]

I'm convinced that people liked Obama better when he was a man of mystery.
   

Reminds me of Colin Mochrie's appearance on Drew Carey's sitcom.

"I liked you better when you didn't talk."

[Wretched Excess]

Operation Chaos in effect?

 

chris matthews clearly believes this is the case.  he went on and on tonight about how the
right is attacking baroque obama and supporting hillary because they like the matchup against
mccain.  I honestly began to wonder what his DU name was.

[Wretched Excess]

Obama seems to have a habit of throwing associates (not to mention family) under the bus when it's politically expedient.  Sure, it's no different from most other politicians, but I thought "a new kind of politics" was part of his whole schtick.

I have heard him go on and on about this new kind of politics, but I have yet to see it, or even
hear it described.  he seems to be running against everything in general, but nothing in particular.
and he is definitely not running for anything beyond a few fuzzy platitudes.

he will tell you how nothing is getting done in washington right now;  that is part of the "old politics",
but he won't tell you what he will get done if he is elected.

[Lauri]

Operation Chaos in effect?

 

yeah, but it may be working too well now.. we dont want to lose Obama as the nominee. and Hilary is starting to look much, much more polished compared to the neophyte Senator.