Candidates on equal footing in Indiana (Indiana Primary Primer)

[Wretched Excess]

outstanding introduction to dem politics in Indiana.  this one is going to be even more interesting
that PA was;  there isn't a big gap for obama to try to close, and there are demographic strengths
for both candidates in this state.

and maybe the MSM won't imply that the entire state is full of closet racists if The BarackStar! loses,
which is what they have been suggesting all day about PA.

Candidates on equal footing in Indiana

 With a demographic landscape that's well-suited to both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, Indiana is shaping up to be the most consequential battleground of the remaining states.

In a signal of the state's importance -- and of his desire to end the evening in a place more favorably inclined to him -- Obama appeared with Hoosier-born rocker John Mellencamp on Tuesday night in Evansville, Ind., as the Pennsylvania vote was being counted.

He campaigned in New Albany, just across the Ohio River from Louisville, Kentucky, on Wednesday. Clinton held a rally in Indianapolis Wednesday and was scheduled to spend Friday and Saturday campaigning throughout the state.

Obama and Clinton have traded the lead in Indiana polls, but there have been few reliable local surveys to date. One thing seems certain: Unlike Pennsylvania, where Clinton began with a pronounced advantage, Indiana is a state where both begin on an equal footing.

For Obama, the raw math suggests a slight advantage. Upwards of 25 percent of the primary vote will come out of just two counties: Marion and Lake. The first is home to Indianapolis, the capital and state's largest city, and the second is home to industrial Gary, located in the northwest corner of the state and part of the Chicago media market.

Both will strongly favor the Illinois senator, predict Indiana political observers, thanks in part to large African-American populations.

According to Robin Winston, a former Indiana Democratic chairman who hasn't endorsed in the race, 253 precincts in the state have delivered more than 90 percent of the vote to Democrats in recent elections -- 241 of them are in the Indianapolis-based 7th District and the Gary-based 1st.

Both places have quirks that are likely to benefit Obama.

In Lake County, Obama was a household name well before the presidential race.

"The northwest part of our state considers itself part of Chicago," says Matthew Tully, political columnist for the Indianapolis Star and a Gary native. "They get Chicago TV and read Chicago papers and have been watching Obama grow up as a politician for years now."

In Marion County, Obama's already well-oiled grass-roots operation will get a boost. Rep. Andre Carson, who just succeeded his late grandmother in a special election, will face off against three credible Democratic challengers, spiking turnout numbers in the hotly contested Democratic primary.

"If he wins huge in the cities, it makes it harder to overcome in other places," notes Tully.

In other words, Clinton could win the vast majority of counties in the state and still lose. "We have 92 counties, and if he wins the right five, he's OK," said one Indiana Democratic insider.

That's because, contrary to some stereotypes of the state, Indiana's population is largely packed into small and medium cities -- not spread out in rural areas. It's more than 70 percent urban, and 30 of the state's counties produce 81 percent of the vote.

Of course, neighboring Ohio had a similar landscape. It had even more blacks and more big cities than Indiana, yet Obama took a 10-point loss.

One key player there was Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, who threw his support to Clinton. In Indiana, Clinton has the support of Indiana's most important Democrat, Sen. Evan Bayh, who casts an even larger shadow than Strickland.

"The state right now would lean toward Hillary Clinton because of Evan Bayh's influence," said Winston, the former state chair. "He's gone all out."

The son of a former senator and previously the youngest governor in the state's history, Bayh represents a golden name in Indiana politics and is the only Democrat in statewide office.

"He's provided an instant organization," says Dan Parker, the Indiana Democratic chairman and Clinton backer.

Along with Bayh, Clinton has lined up much of the Democratic Party establishment: former Gov. Joe Kernan, the widow of former Gov. Frank O'Bannon, the Speaker of the House, the Democratic Senate leader, many of the mayors of the biggest cities and over half of the state central committee.

And, as they did leading up to Ohio, both Hillary and Bill Clinton have put considerable time into the state, including appearances in smaller locales that rarely get presidential-level attention.

"We've almost had Bill and Hillary offering to bag your groceries and take them to the car they've been here so often," said Winston. "I'm surprised at some of the communities they've been to."

Parker said that even before the Pennsylvania primary, the Clintons had between them made 43 campaign stops across 30 Indiana cities and towns.

Indiana pols expect her to run strong across a swath of central and southern Indiana, in the counties well beyond Indianapolis and Bloomington (home to tens of thousands of Indiana University students and professors) that are culturally similar to neighboring Ohio and Kentucky.

The battleground could well be in two places: the fast-growing, mostly white exurbs around Indianapolis and the northern part of the state outside the Chicago orbit where there are pockets of white ethnics, blacks, college students and rural voters.

With 160,000 new voters registering since January and turnout expected to shatter primary records, Indiana is about to take on its highest profile since propelling Robert F. Kennedy to victory on the same first Tuesday in May 1968.

"It's going to be a very tight race," predicted Kip Tew, an Obama supporter and longtime Democratic strategist, echoing what every Hoosier, regardless of affiliation, said.

And, Tew added, "we've never had a primary in my adult life that matters."

Linky

[ToastedRachel]

Thanks for posting this...I was just googling for something like it. (Hi Dickweed!  )  Was happy to read Bayh is behind the girl candidate. If the semi-black candidate wins NC big, she'll need Indiana.

[Tess Anderson]

Hey Rachel, I've heard madame Hillary has just about written off NC, too many black people and all, and she's concentrating on Indiana now. She wants that state, and she gets what she wants. You might have just described the 2008 Democrat ticket with her and Bayh.

[Wretched Excess]

Thanks for posting this...I was just googling for something like it. (Hi Dickweed!  )  Was happy to read Bayh is behind the girl candidate. If the semi-black candidate wins NC big, she'll need Indiana.

be consistent.  hillary is the semi-girl candidate, just like The BarackStar! is the semi-black candidate.   I think the conventional wisdom holds that she will lose NC pretty big, and that the acid test will be indiana.  odd, but it doesn't seem to be about winning every time, but exceeding expectations.

and our election forum is full of useful (and some not so useful ) information.