I'm not sure on this - there is the potential for vote-splitting that may work out for Patrick.
Nah, FY11 is a total disaster, as is the Ed Reform bill Patrick just rammed through the state house. He is done. The Independents will turn to Baker when they are laying off their fire/police/teachers and literally closing down their Town halls. Budget wise, this is the WORST year for an incumbent to have his seat up.