Don't forget Larry Sabato crystal ball
That one doesn't pop into my e-mail as I already read enough from the aforementioned leftist sources and the conservative sites that I allow in my mailbox.
One of the amusing assumptions that has been pushed for months is that "Trump's sinking approval rating is dragging down Republican candidates in Red states". In reality, the President's approval rating has ZERO correlation with individual candidates, despite the low information voters falling for such blather. Remember, half the world is dumber than average and they are allowed to vote!
One more detail the the NY Slimes sent out yesterday orgasmically with the four definitive likely outcomes of Tuesday's election. It is laughable in its bias, and I'll summarize here:
Scenario 1: Senate Republicans stay dry
Wave size: D+5 to D+7 popular vote (similar to 2010 or 2014).
Polling error: Democratic strength substantially overestimated (similar to 2016 or 2020).
Outcome: Republicans hold the Senate fairly easily. Democrats win only a narrow-to-modest House majority. That House victory may not be called for days or even a week, as Democrats wait for states like California to count their mail-in ballots.
How it happens: Imagine you’re standing alongside Republicans in districts that voted for Mr. Trump by eight to 12 percentage points, when an enormous blue wave crashes ashore.
Scenario 2: Senate Republicans hold on to high ground, but just barely
Wave size: D+7 to D+9 (similar to 2006 or 2018).
Polling error: The polls are generally accurate, but Republicans are modestly underestimated — either nationally or in crucial red states. (Similar to 2018 or 2024.)
Outcome: A big blue wave that nonetheless leaves Republicans breathing a sigh of relief — and Democrats disappointed. The Senate only narrowly remains Republican, even though Democrats fare better in safely Republican states than either party has fared on opposing turf in decades. Democrats make significant gains in the House.
How it happens: This is a big wave. It’s as large or larger than any midterm in decades. In this scenario, the wave doesn’t slosh up against the feet of the Republicans on high ground; it surges over the sand bags and washes them away. Republicans are fighting for political survival.
Scenario 3: Democrats surge just enough to win the Senate
Wave size: D+8 to D+10 (similar to 2006 or 2018).
Polling error: Reasonably accurate, including in the key Senate battlegrounds. (Similar to 2006 or 2022.)
The outcome: Democrats win control of the Senate. They win an even larger House majority than they did in 2018.
How it happens: This is mostly like Scenario 2. The wave is just as high. The Republicans are swept off their feet. Except this time, the Republicans can’t hold on. Democrats win the double-digit Trump states they need to flip the Senate. Maybe even Ms. Collins is flipped off her surfboard.
The difference between Scenarios 2 and 3 might be only tens of thousand votes in a few key states. From the standpoint of polling, public opinion or wave height, it’s barely a difference. Politically, it’s everything: the difference between Democratic or Republican control of the Senate.
Scenario 4: Tsunami
Wave size: D+10 and higher (similar to 2008 or larger than any modern electoral victory).
Polling error: Democrats outperform the polls in the most closely watched states or nationwide. (Similar to 2012, 2022 or 2025.)
Outcome: A large Democratic majority in the House (maybe 250 seats), a comfortable one in the Senate (53 or more), and the beginning of a new chapter of American politics.
How it happens: In this scenario, the G.O.P.’s structural advantages are swept away. Maybe Democrats win the key Senate races with room to spare, with the party’s candidates winning reliably red states like Ohio, Alaska, Texas or even Kansas by a modest but comfortable margins. The wave is just that high.
The consequences of this kind of Democratic victory would reverberate for years. The closest Senate races — which in this scenario might be Iowa, Kansas or even Mississippi and South Carolina — might not decide control of the Senate in 2026, but could determine which side has the advantage heading into 2028. Farther down the ballot, Democrats would have a once-in-a-generation chance to break the Republican grip on solidly red-state legislatures. Texas wouldn’t just go blue in the Senate race but in the governor’s one as well.
In today’s polarized era, it can be hard to believe that any party could win in this kind of tsunami. The last time a party won by more than 10 points in the national vote was 2008, when House Democrats outran Barack Obama while benefiting from the giant turnout on his behalf.
But this scenario is consistent with the latest polls and the president’s approval rating, which is lower than any president’s heading into a midterm since Harry Truman. It’s nearly 10 points lower than it was in 2018, when Republicans lost the popular vote by almost nine points but held the red-state Senate races.
Back then, Republicans held those states by rallying Mr. Trump’s supporters. A majority of voters approved of his performance in the key red states, like Texas, Tennessee, Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri. This time, winning just the voters who approve of Mr. Trump won’t be anywhere near enough. It wouldn’t even be enough in a state like South Carolina, let alone the top-tier Senate battlegrounds.
With Republican-leaning voters outright disapproving of Mr. Trump, this time they really do stay home or even cast a ballot for the other party. If that happens, Democrats could win by a larger margin than we’ve seen in recent memory.
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This type of insipid writing seems as if were written with a big bottle of Jergens lotion and a box of Kleenex nearby. Maybe some wet naps depending on how sanitary this writer is.
